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After establishing himself as one of the best shortstop prospects in the entire game, will New York Mets prospect Amed Rosario find himself picking it for the big league club in 2017?
Player Profile
The New York Mets fought off the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros to sign German Amed (Valdez) Rosario in July of 2012 to a $1.75M signing bonus out of the Dominican Republic.
Rosario had excellent reviews for his defense, but his offensive profile was the worry that many teams had in signing him.
The Mets opened Rosario aggressively in their advanced rookie Appalachian League in Kingsport. He hit .241/.279/.358 with three home runs and two stolen bases with a 4.87 percent walk rate and 19.03 percent strikeout rate.
Rosario opened the 2014 season with low-A Savannah in the South Atlantic League, but after a week of struggling, he was sent to the Mets' New York-Penn League affiliate in Brooklyn, where he finished out the season.
Combined in 2014, Rosario hit .274/.320/.374 with two home runs and seven stolen bases, posting a 5.61 percent walk rate and 18.07 percent strikeout rate.
His improved performance and elite defense was noted by major prospect lists, as he was rated the #98 overall prospect by Baseball America and #78 by Baseball Prospectus.
Rosario opened his 2015 season at high-A St. Lucie in the Florida State League. He was promoted for a week of AA as Binghamton pursued the Eastern League playoffs.
Combined in 2015, he hit .253/.302/.329 with no home runs but 13 stolen bases, also posting a 5.39 percent walk rate and a 18.27 percent strikeout rate.
While the numbers weren't sparkling, performing as he did as a 19-year-old in high-A and AA got Rosario ranked across the board, as he was BA's #58 prospect, BP's #96 prospect and MLB Pipeline's #79 prospect.
Rosario began to receive notice in spring training 2016 for his increased muscle mass and the sound the ball was making off of his bat. He began his season again at high-A with St. Lucie, but after a half season he was promoted to AA Binghamton, where he performed even better with the bat.
Rosario hit .324/.374/.459 on the 2016 season with five home runs and 19 stolen bases. He also added 13 triples along with a 7.59 percent walk rate and a 16.51 percent strikeout rate.
He's been getting plenty of prospect notice this offseason, as BA ranked him #8 overall, #5 by MLB Pipeline and #8 by BP. I had him #9 in my top 125 for Call to the Pen this January.
Scouting Report
Size/Build
Rosario is a right-handed hitter and thrower who is listed at 6'2″ and 190 pounds. He could be up to around 200-210 at this point, but it's all in very good build for certain as he carries minimal excess in the middle of his body.
Hitting
Contact (60) – Even in his times of struggle coming up, Rosario has shown a solid ability to put the bat on the ball, though with a fairly aggressive, contact-oriented approach.
With the added strength he showed before the 2016 season, Rosario was able to make more meaningful impact with the baseball, which turned many bloopers and light line drives into scorching hits that found gaps.
Rosario's swing is quick through the zone and has minimal load, and his bat path should produce a ton of line drives as he makes solid contact.
Power (45) – While he added strength and added in extra base hits at a rate not seen previously in his career, Rosario does still have a very line-drive oriented bat path.
His swing is not built for loft, and to generate the type of loft that would be required for him to get to 15-20 home runs, he'd have to alter his swing enough that he could end up costing himself in the contact strength he has currently, so he'd probably be better off playing for the gaps rather than changing anything just to generate fantasy stats.
Eye (50) – This really is the key area of improvement that I still see with Rosario. His contact-led approach at the plate has been successful for him, wildly so in 2016.
The problem with that approach, however, is that he has never really developed solid pitch recognition nor zone recognition, though the former is certainly ahead of the latter.
I'd see Rosario needing to do some work in this area for him to have a solid batting average in the major leagues, as MLB pitchers will be able to exploit his aggressiveness more than minor league pitchers have been.
More from Call to the Pen
Base Running/Fielding
Speed (60) – What I found most intriguing of Rosario's strength increase in 2016 is that it very likely helped his speed, not hindered it.
Rosario has always been a guy with plus speed at the top end, but almost an awkward first few steps in getting there previously, so he struggled in base stealing, and even sometimes in the field, due to some quickness struggles.
The added strength he had coming into 2016 did not diminish the top end speed he had and seemed to allow him to iron out his first few steps and make them more explosive, allowing him to really accelerate out of the box and on the base paths.
While I still would say his base stealing instincts are average or even a touch below, he can run well for sure.
Defense (70) – The carrying tool for Rosario all along has been his absolutely elite defense. While he had some seeming issues with first-step quickness before his strength gain, he had such smooth movements afterward that he easily handled anything hit his way and then some.
He has tremendous range and his hands are incredibly soft as he handles balls and throws. There's really little not to like about Rosario defensively, and he will very likely jump quickly to the upper levels of defensive shortstops in the league once he gets to New York.
Arm (70) – This is an area where I see some scouting disagreement on. In my views on Rosario, the arm is a definite plus-plus tool.
I've seen others grade as low as a 60 on his arm (which is still a plus arm grade, not a bad thing by any means), but when I've seen him make deep throws with power and accuracy so consistently, especially this season with his added physical strength, I just cannot see anything but a pure 70 on it.
MLB Player Comp
Before the added strength, I really thought Rosario and Elvis Andrus were almost perfect comps due to their similar plate discipline profiles and defensive skill sets.
As I look at them now, Rosario has physically developed to look very similar to Xander Bogaerts. I do believe their offensive profiles will be different, with Bogaerts being a guy who hits for more power over the fence and Rosario having more speed, but they are similar physical players.
Rosario's probably best considered as a guy with Andrus' skills on offense and defense while boasting the physical frame of Bogaerts, which is a pretty impressive thing to consider.
Rosario did play a half-season at AA in 2016, so it could be interesting to see where the Mets place him to open 2017. Asdrubal Cabrera seemingly has shortstop locked down for the near future in New York, but he's only signed through 2017 for sure, though he does have an affordable team option.
Cabrera could also move to third base to take over for David Wright, whose injuries are likely to end his career early, if Rosario is ready for 2018 and the Mets pick up Cabrera's option.
Most likely, Rosario will open 2017 in either AA or AAA, but he'll likely at least see a September call-up this season, if not more extensive playing time, which is impressive for a player who will be 21 for all of the 2017 season.
