New York Yankees: Aaron Judge has to regress at some point, right?
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is having an offensive season we haven't seen from a rookie in awhile. Can his level of production hold?
Aaron Judge shouldn't be happening. Something is wrong, here. The New York Yankees must be benefiting from some form of magic-induced luck we haven't seen before, because their 25-year old outfielder just isn't regressing to the mean like we would—should—expect.
Through 51 games and 215 PA's, the young outfielder Judge is leading all of the MLB in home runs, and is leading the league in Isolated Power (ISO) among active players, at .365. Also, with Mike Trout out with a thumb injury, Judge is leading the league in FanGraphs' fWAR, as well, contributing 3.1 wins to his team through less than a third of the season.
Ordinarily, Judge would be in an incredibly precarious position, given peripheral luck metrics. He has a .410 BABIP, only bested by the pants-on-head insane .464 mark of Twins third baseman Miguel Sano. His fly balls turn into home runs at a rate of 40.9 percent. Imagine, 2 out of every 5 balls Aaron Judge hits into the air end up landing in the bleachers for a casual jog around the bases.
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In one of his many visits to her office on the hit HBO series The Sopranos, Dr. Jennifer Melfi attempts to commiserate with Tony on the growing absurdity of modern society, quoting W. B. Yeats, "I agree, 'the center cannot hold; the falcon can no longer hear the falconer.'" Tony, sadly, didn't understand the reference as it pertained to his feelings of hopelessness.
However, we probably can, as it pertains to Aaron Judge: The center of a .410 BABIP and 40.9 percent HR/FB rate cannot hold. The proverbial falcon is a respective 36 and 270 percent beyond the calls of its league-average falconer. Judge's production has to turn back towards the league's average…right?
Perhaps, but in May alone Judge put up a BABIP of .473. Through his last 15 games (we're now into June), that number has fallen to just .464. His June BABIP through 3 games is a ridiculous .667. It seems unlikely, but perhaps this just is the "center" for Aaron Judge.
