No Lucroy, no problem -- the Indians are still the favorites to win the World Series
Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy will probably be kicking himself in October for what he did this weekend.
Presumably, Lucroy is interested in winning a World Series title, and over the weekend, an excellent opportunity to do just that presented itself, as the Brewers and Indians agreed to a trade that would send the All-Star catcher to Cleveland in exchange for some top-flight minor leaguers.
Only Lucroy turned the trade down, using the no-trade clause in his contract that expressly prohibited a move to Northeast Ohio.
Adding Lucroy would have significantly improved the Indians, who have struggled to get production out of their catchers all year. Lucroy would have immediately become one of the team’s top hitters and his defense behind the plate is well above league average.
Making a deal to land Lucroy was a coup for Cleveland. It took an already excellent team and would have made it the World Series favorite.
Alas, the deal was voided by Lucroy, and that leaves the Indians as … let’s see here … yep, they’re still the best bet to win the World Series.
You might ask how that is. How could the Indians need to improve -- hence the deal to get Lucroy -- and still be considered World Series favorites?
The answer lies in the unquantifiable realm of sports.
Technically speaking, the Chicago Cubs are World Series favorites. Yes, the Earth is still spinning, despite what you just read.
According to FanGraphs, the Cubs have the best chance of any team to win the World Series at 17.9 percent, five points higher than the Indians, who are in second place.
It makes sense. The Cubs have four excellent starters, a strong 7th-8th-9th inning punch in the bullpen, good defense and the best-hitting lineup in baseball.
But they're yet to feel the pressure that comes when the Cubs play in the fall.
The Cubs haven’t won a World Series since 1908, which makes the Indians’ 68-year title drought seem novel.
Growing up in Chicago, I vividly remember the Cubs’ last, best chance to break the curse. You might remember what happened that year.
What’s impossible to pick up through YouTube was the feeling of deflation that came after the Bartman incident. The entire city was watching the game with bated breath, with the presumption that something -- if not everything -- would go wrong and undo what was, to that point, a magical postseason run.
The pressure was immense, and as soon as luck went against the Cubs, they folded like they had 2-7 offsuit. That was apparent then, in real time, and it still comes across in the video, 13 years later -- you can feel the energy drop out of the stadium. It was a nervous energy, and what replaced it was a mix of relief and grief. It’s hard to walk on pins and needles for two months straight, as the Cubs did in 2003.
The Cubs, five outs away from the World Series, subsequently choked away Game 6. Kerry Wood then blew a 5-3 lead in the fifth inning of Game 7, as the Cubs lost to the Marlins 9-6.
Cubs fans -- and a goat -- wait outside the stadium prior Game 7 of the 2003 NLCS at Wrigley Field (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
That 2003 Cubs team was supposed to break the curse. They might not have been the best team going into the playoffs, but after they beat the Braves in the first round, expectations changed. Wood and Mark Prior were dominant in that first-round win, and lest we forget the Cubs jumped out to a 3-1 lead in the NLDS. With a chance to win the pennant in South Florida, the Cubs mustered only two hits and sent the series back to Chicago.
In baseball, either there’s no action or a ton of it all at once. The on-off rhythm gives players a lot of time to think. You can't zone out and just play. There's no flow. Because of that, pressure manifests differently on the diamond than it does in other games, and you can't convince me that the pressure didn't do the Cubs in 2003.
The Cubs will start to feel that same kind of pressure when we get closer to the playoffs. Then that looming pressure will push down a little bit once the NLDS starts. If the Cubs get through that, the vice grips a bit tighter yet. The pressure will compound with every out as the Cubs inch closer to their first pennant since 1945. If they’re good enough to escape the clutches of that, they’ll only have the weight of 108 years on their shoulders for the World Series. When the 2003 Cubs lost, they thought they’d be back the next year -- they had the best young rotation in baseball, after all. It was four years until they got back to the playoffs. That resonates. If the Cubs can get to the World Series, they’ll have to be in now or never mode. You can't "wait 'til next year" when you're four wins away.
Forgive me for thinking that baggage isn’t the best thing to bring with you on the field in a seven-game series.
What does that have to do with the Indians? Well, Cleveland doesn’t have that soul-crushing pressure anymore. LeBron James took it from them when he lifted the Cavs to a title in June. Cleveland is no longer cursed. Who cares if the Indians lose in the playoffs or even the World Series? They'll be good again next year. Sometimes, it’s best to spread out the joy.
Had the Warriors won this summer, this might be a different story, but they didn’t, so the Indians are playing with house money when it comes to expectations.
The Indians might have flaws -- catcher and third base (though Juan Uribe is a human win totem) -- but they’re still, hands down, the best team in the American League this year, especially after they added Andrew Miller to the bullpen. The Indians should reach the World Series, and there, they stack up with anyone they’d face, particularly when you factor in the pressure that will be on the Cubs.
So while the advanced statistics won’t show it, and things rarely work out the way they’re expected to in baseball, the Indians, despite missing out on Lucroy, are the favorites to win the title and extend the Summer of Cleveland into the fall, all because the pressure is off.
