Notes: Why the Orioles' closer suddenly has a stronger Cy Young case
On Aug. 24, I wrote a column saying that Orioles closer Zach Britton should not win the American League Cy Young Award.
Britton’s agent, Scott Boras, responded by good-naturedly threatening to unleash his analytics team on me. And I good-naturedly invited him to bring it on.
Well, I asked for it, right?
Boras, true to form, came up with a number of arguments on Britton’s behalf – good arguments in support of a brilliant reliever.
I’m still not completely sold on Britton winning the Cy Young when he is on pace to finish with only 65 innings (Dennis Eckersley holds the record for fewest innings by a Cy Young winner in a non-strike season – 80).
But I must admit, Boras has a case.
His principal argument is that Britton has been more dominant than any AL starting pitcher this season. It’s true – there isn’t a Clayton Kershaw in the AL bunch.
Britton, meanwhile, is . . .
*41-for-41 in save opportunities, the longest save streak in as many opportunities by a left-hander to start a season in major-league history.
*Within four scoreless innings of dropping his 0.63 ERA to 0.59, which would be the lowest in major-league history (minimum 60 innings).
*The author of a major-league record 43 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run, a streak that lasted from May 5 to Aug. 22.
In my original column arguing against Britton’s candidacy, I wrote that Mariano Rivera never won a Cy Young; he finished second once, third three times.
Yet, crazy as this sounds, Rivera never had a season like Britton’s 2016 opus, never finished with an ERA below 1.00 or with zero blown saves.
In my original column, I also wrote that the season was far from over, implying that there was a plenty of time for a worthy starter or three to emerge.
Um, ah, er . . .
Indians righty Corey Kluber is perhaps the best starting candidate, the leader among AL starters in Wins Above Replacement and ERA-plus – that is, ERA adjusted to league and ballpark. But his current 3.05 ERA would be the highest by an AL Cy Young winner since CC Sabathia’s 3.21 in 2007. Eh.
Corey Kluber (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Rick Porcello and his 20-3 record for the Red Sox? Terrific, and Porcello also leads the AL in strikeout-to walk-ratio as well. Problem is, wins are partly tied to run support, and Porcello also leads the AL in that department, getting an average of 8.23 runs per nine innings.
I could go on, identifying similar flaws in the other top AL starters. The NL offers far better choices – five pitchers in that league own as good an ERA-plus as Kluber or better. Which brings us back to Britton.
Eric Gagne won the NL Cy in 2003 after a historic performance as a closer (55-for-55 in saves, a 1.20 ERA). He beat out two starters, Jason Schmidt and Mark Prior, who - at least according to ERA-plus - performed better than any AL starter has this season. Schmidt, though, made only 29 starts, Prior only 30. Roy Halladay, the AL winner, made 36.
The award is for best pitcher, nothing more, nothing less. Still, Britton likely would require the same type of unusual circumstances as Gagne. Maybe Kluber falters in his final few starts, opening up the race further. Or maybe Kluber excels, and rightly claims the award.
It’s a fun debate, a legitimate debate – and rest assured, Boras is armed with plenty of other numbers to support, too.
I’m not an AL Cy Young voter this season, but I’m enjoying the discussion - and staying open-minded.
Stay in touch, Scott!
A different kind of Cy Young decision looms in the NL, where Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks leads the league in ERA by 0.45 runs per nine innings but is not necessarily the runaway favorite for the award.
Hendricks ranks only seventh in the NL in Fangraphs’ FIP-based version of Wins Above Replacement, which eliminates the impact of defense. He ranks a close second to the Nationals’ Max Scherzer in the RA-9 version, which gives him full credit for all the events that happen while he is on the mound.
The Cubs’ breathtaking defense actually hurts all of their starters in fWAR – Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta rank eighth and ninth, respectively. The metric accounts for infield flies, but does not credit pitchers for weak contact on balls that reach the outfield or on grounders. And Hendricks, ahem, is the major-league leader in soft-contact percentage.
Perhaps the biggest rap against Hendricks is that he ranks only 10th in the NL at 173 innings. Excluding Rick Sutcliffe, who won the NL Cy in 1984 after getting traded, Clayton Kershaw is the only starter to win a Cy while pitching fewer than 200 innings in a non-strike-shortened season – Kershaw threw 198 1/3 in 2014.
Hendricks still could get to 200, but he has thrown 30 2/3 fewer innings than Scherzer. Cubs manager Joe Maddon has handled him carefully, allowing him to face hitters a third time through the order far less often than pitchers such as Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto do.
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
So, should Hendricks win the Cy? If he continues performing at a reasonably high level, my instinct is yes. His innings total is an issue, but we’re talking about a guy who has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 20 consecutive starts. It’s hardly a stretch to say he is the best pitcher in the NL this season.
In case you’re wondering, there have been pitchers who led their leagues in ERA by even wider margins than Hendricks and lost the Cy, according to STATS LLC.
Whitey Ford won the AL ERA title in 1958 by 0.67 runs per nine innings, but voters preferred Bob Turley, who had an ERA nearly a full run higher than Ford’s but won 21 games to Ford’s 14 (voters weighed wins much more heavily then, and only one Cy was awarded in both leagues).
In the NL, Kevin Brown finished second to John Smoltz in 1996 despite an ERA that was more than a run per nine innings lower (1.89-2.94). Smoltz won 24 games to Brown’s 17, and threw 20 2/3 more innings.
Dodgers left-hander Rich Hill is so mild-mannered that it almost surprised me to read that he was upset to be removed from a perfect game after seven innings on Saturday night.
I mean, any pitcher would be upset, particularly one who is 36 and might never get a chance at another perfecto. And as it turns out, Hill’s demeanor in competition is not the same as his unassuming demeanor off the field.
The Dodgers noticed this on the first pitch he threw for them, Aug. 24 against the Giants.
The pitch, a fastball away to Eduardo Nunez, was called a ball. Hill, through his facial expression and body language, showed dissatisfaction with the call. Nunez popped up the next pitch, and a Dodgers coach said that Hill looked in at the plate umpire, still upset.
The Dodgers were not displeased by Hill’s show of emotion. Quite the contrary, they loved his fire.
“He’s just so convicted over every single pitch,” Roberts said. “His intensity just raises everyone else’s level. You hate to compare anyone to Clayton (Kershaw), but it’s similar. He’s liked a caged animal, on the bench, on the mound.”
Roberts said that Hill reminds him of Kershaw when he throws between starts in the bullpen, pitching as if the session is Game 7 of the World Series.
“He lives in the moment. That’s what makes him great,” Roberts said. “He doesn’t have any forward thinking. He wants to live right now, this pitch.
“Talking to him about the blister – he didn’t care about 20 pitches from now. Right now, that’s all that matters.”
A funny thing happened to the Yankees’ Brian McCann after Gary Sanchez replaced him as the Yankees’ primary catcher on Aug. 5.
McCann’s body, freed from the rigors of catching, began hurting less. Lately, he has told coaches he feels as good as he usually does in April, at the start of season.
To this point, serving primarily as a DH has not translated into results for McCann, is batting only .237 with a .700 OPS since Aug. 5, compared to .236 with a .755 OPS before. But overall, McCann’s offensive numbers are comparable to what they were last season, and well above-average for a primary catcher.
So, could a fresher McCann ultimately mean a better McCann next season, even though he will be 33?
The possibility might make the Yankees less eager to trade McCann, even though he is owed $34 million combined 2017 and ’18.
And McCann, who has a full no-trade clause, might be less willing to return to the Braves or accept a deal to another NL club, knowing he can remain a DH in the AL.
McCann, since his major-league debut on June 10, 2005, has caught more innings than all but three catchers – Yadier Molina, Russell Martin and A.J. Pierzynski.
The Yankees’ other backup catcher, Austin Romine, will be out of options next season, and so will Sanchez. But more at-bats at DH will be available, thanks to the trade of Carlos Beltran and retirements of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.
Brian McCann (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said he still values McCann as a player who can hit 20 homers, provide a mid-700s OPS and play good defense when he catches.
“I have him plugged into our plans as we move forward,” Cashman said. “If someone wants me to change that consideration, that’s fine. But he’s considered part of the process, not considered excess.”
McCann is the Yankees’ only left-handed hitting catcher; most of the Yankees’ other young hitters also are right-handed. He offers the Yankees protection if Sanchez regresses or gets hurt. He also offers leadership, a quality the team will need going forward.
