Major League Baseball

MLB playoff odds: Best Game 2 bets for division round

Published Oct. 12, 2022 12:07 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The MLB division series round is here, as we're down to the final eight teams. From a betting perspective, I have you covered.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing:

Class is back in session!

Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday's Game 2s, with odds via FOX Bet (all times ET).

Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler) vs. Atlanta Braves (Kyle Wright), 4:35 p.m. (FOX)

Maybe the best way for the Braves to put a tough Game 1 behind them is to face a right-handed pitcher in Zack Wheeler. Granted, Wheeler isn’t normally a sight for sore eyes, limiting hard-hit balls and using his 6’4" frame to throw as far away from the mound as possible to give hitters as little time as possible to read the pitch. But, when looking at isolated power, or the batting average only on extra-base hits, no one has crushed right-handed deliveries better than Atlanta. Credit sluggers like Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna for that success.

Atlanta’s Kyle Wright has had trouble limiting hard-hit balls. While it may seem like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper could have successful days at the plate, one bet I like is Ronald Acuña Jr. anytime home run (+420 at FOX Bet). As we’ve discussed, if an expected statistic is much higher than an actual statistic, it could be a sign for positive regression. Acuña ranks 11th lowest in MLB in this metric at -4.0. If the Phillies go to the bullpen early, there may be too many exhausted arms, giving Acuña opportunities to bounce back.

Another prop I like is Kyle Wright under 4.5 strikeouts (-134). Wright’s whiff rate only ranks in the 57th percentile among all MLB pitchers. Especially if Atlanta has a quick hook to avoid losing another home game in this best-of-five series, Wright may not have the opportunities necessary to get to 5 K’s.

PICK: Ronald Acuña Jr. (+420 at FOX Bet) Anytime Home Run
PICK: Kyle Wright (-134) Under 4.5 strikeouts

MLB Playoffs: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres NLDS Game 1 Recap | Flippin' Bats

Ben Verlander and Alex Curry react to the Los Angeles Dodgers' Game one win in the NLDS against the San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw), 8:37 p.m. (FS1)

Yes, there are memorable examples of Clayton Kershaw struggling in the postseason. Perhaps the most notable is Game 5 of the 2017 World Series when the Dodgers’ veteran allowed six earned runs with only two strikeouts in 4.2 innings. However, if you go by win probability added, there are more examples of Kershaw helping the Dodgers in the postseason than hurting them. I’m projecting him to have one of those "helping" days. Kershaw’s two main pitches, the slider and four-seam fastball, are not pitches Padres hitters have handled well these last two months. San Diego ranks 16th in expected weighted on-base average (.305) in this context. Kershaw over 4.5 strikeouts (-148) is a bet I really like.

Yu Darvish is an expert at knowing exactly which pitch to throw in any situation. However, arguably the one delivery that Dodger hitters do not handle well is not something Darvish often throws: the curveball. Darvish must also face Justin Turner, who has an expected batting average against the Padres hurler of .363. Justin Turner to record a hit (-175) is another bet I like. As for the game, Los Angeles has played well against San Diego for a long time, and this pitching matchup does not seem like it would break the trend. My lean is Dodgers -1 (-138 on FOX Bet).

PICK: Clayton Kershaw (-148) Over 4.5 strikeouts
PICK: Justin Turner (-175) to record a hit
PICK: Dodgers (-1 run line at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1 run

Remember to pace yourself during your studies this postseason, it’s only Wednesday.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.