MLB playoff odds: Best bets for Phillies-Padres Game 1 of NLCS
By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres will battle in the National League Championship Series, with the winner advancing to the World Series.
From a betting perspective, I have you covered.
I will guide you through the championship series rounds by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.
That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing:
Class is back in session!
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday night's Phillies-Padres game.
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Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler) at San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish), 8:03 p.m. ET Tuesday, FS1
One of Zach Wheeler’s best traits is his ability to get ahead in the count by getting hitters to swing at the first pitch. He will usually begin with a fastball or either a slider against lefties or a sinker against righties. Either way, his first strike rate of 67.2% ranks in the top 50 among pitchers who have gone at least 150 innings.
Wheeler will have to face a few disciplined hitters, such as Juan Soto and Austin Nola, but simply getting ahead in the count will keep Game 1 of the NLCS a lower-scoring contest.
That may also be true with Yu Darvish on the mound for the Padres. He does not walk hitters – in fact, his 4.8% walk rate is the 10th-lowest in baseball among qualifiers. His cutter/fastball/slider combination may also tie up the power sluggers in the Phillies lineup.
I am looking for bets that get me to as few runs as possible. The two that I like are Padres under 3.5 runs (-143 on FOX Bet) and one boosted parlay has real value — under 6.5 total runs for the game and the Phillies to win (+340 at FOX Bet).
PICK: Padres Under 3.5 runs scored (-143 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $16.99 total)
PICK: Parlay, Under 6.5 runs scored by both teams combined, Phillies win (Bet Boost, +340 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $44 total)
Don’t forget to turn in your work before the first pitch and get some rest after the game is over, as the Championship Series will feature more excellent opportunities to keep your grades and bankrolls in good places.
Class dismissed!
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.
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