MLB playoff odds: Best bets for Saturday's divisional round
By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The MLB division series round is here, as we're down to the final eight teams. From a betting perspective, I have you covered.
I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.
That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing:
Class is back in session!
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday's games, with odds via FOX Bet (all times ET).
The Phillies jump out to a 9-1 lead over the Braves after Bryce Harper's RBI double and Nick Castellanos' two-run single
Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton) at Philadelphia Phillies (Noah Syndergaard), 2 p.m. (FS1)
While you should always be skeptical of regular season head-to-head statistics, it is interesting that the only National League ballclubs that scored more than 4.4 runs per game against Braves pitching were the Padres and these Philadelphia Phillies.
It’s one thing to be effective, but to shellac Max Fried and Spencer Strider is a surprise. Will Charlie Morton be any different?
The primary pitch for Fried and Strider is the four-seam fastball while Morton’s is the curveball. The four-seamer is his second pitch, but I’d plan to see more off-speed stuff to mess with the Phillies’ timing.
Assuming he’s out there for a minimum of five innings to keep the bullpen somewhat rested, Atlanta can force a Game 5. I like them to win outright (-133 at FOX Bet).
PICK: Braves moneyline (-133 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $17.52 total)
MLB Playoffs: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros DS Game 2 Recap | Flippin' Bats
Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) at Seattle Mariners (George Kirby), 4:07 p.m. (TBS)
Houston is the only favorite in any series that could finish with a sweep. What a massive advantage that would be for World Series futures to preserve arms and have home field, potentially all the way to the end.
Lance McCullers Jr. has only pitched in eight games since recovering from a right forearm injury. In every start, he’s pitched at least five innings and has not given up more than three earned runs.
It is the postseason, so the quick hook is always a possibility, but the pitching decisions should stymie Seattle, while George Kirby is susceptible to allowing hard hit balls. Kyle Tucker getting a hit (-190) and Astros -1 run (+130) are the bets I like here.
PICK: Kyle Tucker to get a hit (-190 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $15.26 total)
PICK: Astros (-1 at FOX Bet at +125, bet $10 to win $22.50 total) to win by more than 1 run
New York Yankees (Luis Severino) at Cleveland Guardians (Triston McKenzie), 7:30 p.m. (TBS)
It’s New York so, of course, the city will make a big deal out of Aaron Judge going 0-for-8 with seven strikeouts in the ALDS. He’s facing mostly cutters on the edges of the strike zone and sinkers that are thrown inside.
Triston McKenzie throws four-seam fastballs in the zone that are still somehow tough to hit. But Judge is due and should crush anything in the heart of the plate.
Add to that Giancarlo Stanton’s outstanding exit velocity and I lean Judge to have a hit (-200), Stanton to have a hit (-150) and the Yankees to have the highest-scoring inning (+130).
PICK: Aaron Judge to get a hit (-200 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $15 total)
PICK: Giancarlo Stanton to get a hit (-150 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
PICK: Yankees to have highest-scoring inning (+130 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $23 total)
Trent Grisham hits a solo home run to give the Padres a 2-0 lead over the Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers (Tyler Anderson) at San Diego Padres (Joe Musgrove), 9:30 p.m. (FS1)
Another day, another dangerous starting pitcher for the Dodgers. This time, it’s Tyler Anderson, with the lowest hard hit rate in the majors (28.5%). The Padres want to win with power, but that will be an issue against Anderson’s fastball and change-up.
As for the magnificence of Joe Musgrove, he doesn’t pitch any one delivery more than 25% of the time, with six different pitches he could go to. The goal is to outthink a hitter with something unusual like a fastball that spins way more than usual that can also set up a curveball or slider.
It’s what made him a Cy Young contender for much of the year, earning an average exit velocity in the 90th percentile and chase rate in the 74th percentile.
Keep it simple: bet the under total runs.
PICK: Dodgers-Padres under 7.5 combined runs (-125 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $18 total)
Remember to pace yourself during your studies this postseason because the lessons will keep on coming.
Class dismissed!
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.
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