Major League Baseball

MLB playoff odds: Best Game 2 bets for Thursday's divisional round

Updated Oct. 13, 2022 2:36 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The MLB division series round is here, as we're down to the final eight teams. From a betting perspective, I have you covered.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing:

Class is back in session!

Here is my favorite bet for Thursday's Game 2, with odds via FOX Bet (all times ET).

Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo) at Houston Astros (Framber Valdez), 3:37 p.m. (TBS)

There is only one pitcher in Major League Baseball whose average launch angle allowed is a negative number (–3.6 degrees).

It’s Framber Valdez.

To translate, that number means when hitters make contact, they’re hitting it into the ground on average. He keeps pitches low with sinkers and curveballs, and the result is often a grounder his infield can take care of. To beat a groundball pitcher, you need an offense that can lift it from the strike zone and into the outfield.

The Mariners may be that ballclub. Their average launch angle on sinkers and curveballs is 16.6 degrees, the second highest in MLB. Their expected batting average is still low on these deliveries (25th in the majors at .204), but the raw numbers suggest they can drive in a few runs. Even with a stellar Houston bullpen, I like Seattle over three runs (+135 at FOX Bet).

Luis Castillo does have an outstanding fastball/sinker combination that could mean the M’s have the lead in the early innings, but this bullpen will continue to have problems with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve & Co.

After all, their wRC+ in high-leverage situations (times when the game is on the line) is 127, meaning they are 27% better than average at the most crucial points of baseball games.

We haven’t seen a lot of offense this postseason, but I suspect we will in this one. Take the total runs Over 7 (+105). Also, I’m leaning towards Alvarez and Altuve to each have a hit (+110).

PICK: Mariners team total Over 3.5 runs (+135, bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
PICK: Over 7 runs scored combined by both teams (+105, bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
PICK: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez to each have one or more hits (+110, bet $10 to win $21 total)

Remember to pace yourself during your studies this postseason because the lessons will keep on coming.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.