Major League Baseball

Odds indicate Shohei Ohtani running away with MLB AL MVP

Updated Jun. 24, 2023 5:42 p.m. ET

It’s not even the end of June, but if you look at AL MVP odds, the race seems all but decided at this point. If this were an election, analysts would be calling it long before the polls closed on the West Coast.

As it turns out, that’s because of a player on the West Coast: Shohei Ohtani. The Los Angeles Angels' two-way superstar is looking to add to his 2021 AL MVP honor.

And oh, by the way, while he’s not likely to win the AL Cy Young Award, he’s at least in that conversation, too.

BetMGM sports trader Hal Egeland offers his thoughts on Ohtani’s rather unprecedented season thus far.

Leader of All Packs

If you look into Angels individual statistics, then you’ll find Ohtani’s name at the top of most of the relevant categories.

Ben Fawkes, who’s been in the sports betting content space with both ESPN and more recently the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSIN), tweeted about Ohtani’s dominance.

Through Tuesday's games, Ohtani leads L.A. in several offensive categories, including:

– Runs (49)

– Hits (83)

– Home runs (24)

– Batting average (.295)

– On-base plus slugging (OPS of 1.002)

– RBIs (58)

– Stolen bases (10)

In fact, Ohtani leads Major League Baseball in home runs and OPS, and he’s tied for first in RBIs.

And in pitching, Ohtani leads the Angels in:

– ERA (3.29)

– Wins (six)

– Strikeouts (105)

– WHIP (1.05)

"Shohei Ohtani is doing things that your best local Little Leaguer does, but he’s doing that against the best players in the world," Egeland said. "It’s one thing to lead his team in all those categories, but he’s also doing that with Mike Trout in the same lineup."

And while doing so, Ohtani is running away from the field in AL MVP odds. Ohtani opened as the +200 favorite at BetMGM, already a pretty short price. Now, less than halfway through the season, he’s the -500 favorite, with New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge a distant +2000 second choice, and no other player shorter than +3500.

"I haven’t been doing this long enough to know if MVP odds were even offered when Barry Bonds was at his peak," Egeland said. "But Bonds is the only other player in my lifetime I can remember that could have this price on the MVP market before the All-Star break.

"There isn’t really a fair comparison to Ohtani in baseball history. I know Babe Ruth is the name that gets thrown out there all the time, but it was a very different game back then. Ruth had 107 complete games as a pitcher, and that's an afterthought when talking about his career. Ruth may have been a great two-way player, but I don't think he was throwing 101 mph."

Bettors Have Spoken

Even with short MVP odds, bettors piled on Shotime in the preseason and early in the regular season. He’s been in minus-money territory for almost two months, and with Ohtani now sitting at -500, the action is slowing down.

However, at BetMGM, Ohtani remains No. 1 in ticket count, netting twice as many bets as second-place Adley Rutschman of the Baltimore Orioles. And Ohtani is lapping the field in money wagered on, taking 4.5 times more dollars than second-place Rutschman.

Yet BetMGM would have no issue with Ohtani landing his second MVP trophy.

"We’ve definitely had interest on Ohtani throughout the year, but things have certainly slowed down now that he’s -500 to win MVP," Egeland said. "He’d actually be a good result for us. But that isn’t too surprising, since he never got longer than the opening odds of +200 and has been minus money since the beginning of May."

Rutschman is the biggest liability for BetMGM. The Orioles catcher is having a solid season, but he’s miles behind Ohtani on the odds board, currently the co-eighth choice at +6600.

As for 2022 AL MVP Judge, injury is hampering his efforts to keep pace with Ohtani. Judge has been out since June 3 with a toe issue. Earlier this season, he missed time with a hip injury.

"Had Judge stayed healthy and continued what he was doing, he may have given opportunities to bettors," Egeland said. "But an injury or a trade is the only thing stopping Ohtani at this point. Now that the Angels are contending for the playoffs, I don’t imagine a trade will come into play.

"I was looking forward to the TV personalities debating if he should win the MVP in both the NL and AL."

Even if a trade made that debate possible, Egeland said he’s a firm "No" on Ohtani winning both league’s MVPs.

Cy Young Chase

In late April, Ohtani was as short as +400 to win the AL Cy Young Award. While he continues to have a solid season, he’s lagging behind the AL’s top pitchers. In 14 starts, Ohtani is 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA.

BetMGM now has Ohtani as the +1200 co-fifth choice in AL Cy Young odds, joined by Texas Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi. Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.12 ERA) is the +240 favorite.

"Ohtani is third in money and first in tickets for AL Cy Young, with Gerrit Cole and McClanahan being the only pitchers with more money," Egeland said, while noting the New York Yankees’ Cole (8-1, 2.64 ERA) is the +800 fourth choice.

"Ohtani would be a small loser for us on Cy Young but a winner overall, assuming he’d have to win the MVP if he won the Cy Young," Egeland said.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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