Olney: Yankees Are a "Perfect Fit" for Impending Free Agent Rich Hill
In his latest column, Buster Olney of ESPN posits that Los Angeles Dodgers starter Rich Hill is a “perfect fit” for the New York Yankees this offseason.
Rather than trade from their prospect depth this winter for an ace like Chris Sale or Sonny Gray, Buster Olney hypothesizes that the New York Yankees could look to get similar production from impending free agent starter Rich Hill without sacrificing the future.
In the span of one year, Hill has transformed himself from an often-injured journeyman lefty reliever to one of the most dominant starters in baseball. He earned a one year $6 million contract with Oakland this winter on the strength of just four September starts with Boston in 2015 in which the veteran struck out 36 opponents in 29 innings, allowing five earned runs.
That decision has paid off in a big way. Hill showed his hot month was no fluke, pitching to a 2.05 ERA and 2.39 FIP through 105.1 IP. Injuries remain the elephant in the room with Hill, as they have been for most of his career. Recurring blisters limited Hill to just three starts in July and one in August. That’s just the latest in a long line of ailments.
Still, the Athletics investment was rewarded when they shipped Hill and Josh Reddick to the Dodgers at the trade deadline for three promising minor league pitchers. Since making his LA debut in late-August, Hill has been just as impressive, striking out 35 batters in 29.1 IP and giving up just five earned runs in five starts.
Signing a free agent starter to stabilize the rotation this winter rather than surrendering prospects is a sound plan for the rebuilding Yankees, but here is where things get crazy. Olney suggests a three year $50 million for Hill, a 36-year-old pitcher who had gone eight seasons before reaching the 100 inning mark before this year.
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Hill has made 19 starts this year, and this is the second most durable season he’s had. Investing $50 million in Hill’s age 37-39 seasons is extremely unlikely to get you a return of more than 200 innings combined. As good as he is, that’s a steep price to pay for a season’s worth of production.
That said, is there upside there? Undoubtedly. But with the price of starting pitching what it is, $50 million may even be a conservative estimate for Hill. The frugal Yankees seem unlikely to be the high bidder on the most enticing pitching talent in a thin free agent market.
Olney makes an excellent point that the Yankees have “a much greater need for talent than cash” given their status as the wealthiest franchise in baseball, but principal owner Hal Steinbrenner would probably disagree with him if recent history is anything to go on, and it is his money.
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