Orioles Sign Welington Castillo: 2017 Fantasy Fallout
Welington Castillo found a new home today, inking a one-year deal with the Orioles. What is the fantasy impact of the deal?
Welington Castillo was one of the surprising non-tendered players earlier this offseason, as he proved to be one of the better power sources behind the plate with the D’Backs. He immediately became one of the better available C in a weak free agent market class, and the Orioles just so happened to need a catcher as well. But, what is the fantasy fallout from the deal?
Welington Castillo will enter his age-30 season, on his fourth team since 2010. After being phased out of the Cubs’ future, and a failed stop in Seattle, he eventually found his way to Arizona. Castillo would jump-start his career with the D’Backs, amassing 31 HR and 118 RBI with the club over the last two seasons.
He is not going to win a Gold Glove behind the plate or anything, but he can hit, and fantasy owners should be intrigued by the move. Now on the surface a, .264/14 HR/68 RBI/.745 OPS, line may not impress most. But, he was able to do that in only 113 games played. His 17 HR in 2015 came in only 80 games played, so the power is there and can come in bunches.
Looking at his batted ball data, Castillo does square the ball up pretty well. Last season he posted 25% LD, 47% Med contact, and 40% Hard contact rates. All ranking as solid rates, and ones that should play well at Camden. Another area that bodes well for his move, is that he pulled the ball 46% of the time last season. Therefore, if he can elevate more balls, his 42% GB rate is too high, owners could finally see him climb into the 20 HR range.
Now it is not like Arizona is a pitcher’s park or anything, but the fences are deeper in LF and in the LF power alley compared to Camden. All 14 of his HR last season would have been out in Baltimore, and he averages about 394 ft. per HR. It is only 333 ft. down the LF line at Camden, and the power alley is 10 ft. shorter.
Based on his spray chart last season, Castillo would have had three more HR in he were playing at Camden Yards. So if owners take those three, and add the benefit on playing in more games over the course of the season, predominantly in AL East bandboxes as well, it is easy to see the areas of optimism.
Castillo does strike out his fair share, 26% K , but fantasy owners are well aware that C that can maintain high AVG are rare. Owners should expect nothing more than a potential .260 clip, but that is certainly good enough with a possible 20 HR season attached to it.
The D’Backs have a decent lineup but the O’s will offer more counting stat help, as he will slide right around the sixth spot of the lineup. So he could potentially have the likes of, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Chris Davis, and even maybe Mark Trumbo in front of him, offering plenty of RBI and R opportunities.
In the large scheme of things, this move will be lost in the shuffle heading into 2017. But, astute fantasy owners know how dreadful the C spot was last season, and have to keep their eyes out for moves such as these. Castillo will go in the last rounds of drafts next season, but he is still in a cozy offensive situation, offers solid pop, should get a steady dose of playing time, and has a ballpark that fits him to a tee.
Do not be surprised to see post a, .257/20 HR/70 RBI, type of line in 2017. A perfectly acceptable line from a fantasy starting C, that will cost hardly any draft day investment.
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