Major League Baseball

Padres all-in on World Series for 2023. Will they bust if they fall short?

Updated Feb. 23, 2023 7:09 p.m. ET

PEORIA, Ariz. — The San Diego Padres signed so many major-leaguers this winter chiefly because they were willing to spend so much money. But their recent success also enabled them to better attract players who might otherwise have chosen other destinations. They have momentum. After San Diego’s thrilling National League Championship Series run last fall, general manager A.J. Preller noted an improvement in the pull of his pitches.

"I think this offseason, that was a good part of the conversations: what we’ve been trying to build over the last three or four years," Preller said. "It’s being recognized by the players out there, which is cool to see, and it helped us land a few guys this offseason. From a depth standpoint, it just helped us add some winning-type pieces and players and ultimately, I think, some guys chose our situation over some others in a competitive market."

Unlike Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts picked the Padres because the Padres offered by far the most money. But several of the seven other big leaguers who signed with San Diego this offseason had comparable offers available elsewhere.

"The clubhouse, the guys, the organization, from what I've noticed from playing against them, changed over the last few years," said right-hander Seth Lugo, one offseason signing who picked the Padres over the Dodgers. "On the field, you can just see how the players come together, how the team’s turning into a tougher opponent, not just on an individual basis, but you can sense how a clubhouse is working more together rather than individual players doing their own thing."

Fellow signee and right-hander Michael Wacha added: "You look at this team and what they’ve done last year and previous year and what they’ve been building here, it made my decision pretty easy. Once we knew the Padres were interested, we were hyped."

In Wacha’s case, earlier signings helped sway him. He spent seven seasons in St. Louis with Matt Carpenter, who joined San Diego in December, and last season in Boston with Bogaerts. Wacha said both players reached out to him when they learned his agents were talking to the Padres.

Nelson Cruz, once Manny Machado’s teammate in Baltimore, also heard from the superstar before he signed a $1 million deal to play in San Diego.

"He probably had his choice of a number of teams, but he came to a place that he had the best chance to win," Padres manager Bob Melvin said of Cruz. "That’s what he intimated to me."

This might be Cruz’s final season. It also might be Machado’s last in San Diego, as he plans to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract and become a free agent. While the Padres could extend his deal to avert that, the two sides remain distant in negotiations. Machado said he was unsure where he will play next year.

"But my focus is not about 2024," he said. "It’s about 2023, and what I can do for this ballclub, what I’ve done for this organization and what we’re going to continue to do here."

Indeed, Machado’s arrival four years ago ushered in this era of Padres baseball. Preller had previously acquired the likes of Justin Upton and Eric Hosmer via trade or free agency to be franchise cornerstones, but those efforts failed.

Machado happily reported that the market has changed in those four years. As of now, he’d stand to earn far more as a free agent than the $150 million he’d be owed.

Can the Padres afford to double that outlay? Nobody knows. Can they double that outlay and extend Juan Soto, who's set to become a free agent in 20 months? Again, nobody knows, but many doubt. When this offseason began, few thought owner Peter Seidler could afford what he has since spent. Even publicly, some in the industry are questioning whether they can maintain this.

Earlier this month, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred observed that past personnel investments enabled the Padres to increase their revenue, which then enabled this renewed run of spending. But he voiced some doubt about their ability to continue that cycle.

"The trick for smaller markets has always been sustainability," Manfred said. "Hats off to Peter Seidler. He’s made a massive financial commitment, personally, to make this all happen. And the question becomes, how long can you continue to do that? And what happens when you have to go through a rebuild?"

No smaller-market franchise has ever attempted to spend like Seidler is currently spending. Though there is no precedent, Machado and his teammates have come to believe that it’s possible to succeed in this fashion.

"I think they all can. I think they all have the means for it," Machado said of major-league owners. "But, ultimately, it’s if they want to, or if they want to win. Peter has shown the interest that he wants to win, and it’s showing."

As evidence, Machado mentioned seeing Padres hats on the television broadcasts of the Super Bowl and golf’s Waste Management Open. San Diego, now a one-sport town, is seeing record ticket demand.

The changes the Padres are making and what it means for baseball

Padres advisor to baseball operations Ian Kinsler discusses the club's offseason and how ownership has been willing to do whatever it takes to bring a World Series to San Diego.

Manfred’s comments, and similar recent remarks from Rockies owner Dick Monfort, prompted a new round of questions to Seidler about his approach to ownership. He succinctly said that he was unworried about the sustainability of his choices.

"When we talk about risk," Seidler said Tuesday, "there’s a risk to doing nothing."

Nobody will accuse him of that for some time to come.

Seidler spent, the Padres won some, Seidler was willing to spend some more, and Preller recruited based on that trend. Now they are here, as perhaps baseball’s February favorites.

"Everybody’s talking the same thing, right? Our front office has done a great job, so it’s our turn to take care of business now. It’s gonna be fun," said Fernando Tatís Jr., who can return from suspension on April 20. "They’re gonna remember 2023 for a long time."

Tatís is undeniably correct on his last point. Either the Padres will dominate and establish themselves as this sport’s center of attention, or they will fall short of expectations and attract a ton of attention for doing so again under Preller. They previously built up ahead of the 2015 season, only to underperform and dismantle the team.

If they fall far short again, the questions about sustainability will only grow louder, including ones about trading Soto before his walk year. But at this early, early stage in the season, the opposite feels more likely. For this year, at least, the Padres have Machado, and Tatís (for most of it), and Soto, and Bogaerts, and Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell, and more members of their young core, and all the other players they signed over the winter.

Yes, their 2023 figures to be fun. Beyond that, who knows?

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for The Athletic, the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times, and his alma mater, USC, for ESPN Los Angeles. He is the author of "How to Beat a Broken Game." Follow him on Twitter at @pedromoura.

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