Phillies: Time To Sell High On Cesar Hernandez's 2016 Season
Aug 20, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez (16) hits a solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Cesar Hernandez rose of up the ranks of potential building blocks for the Phillies in 2016. Would it be wise for the team to sell high on him now?
By all accounts, Cesar Hernandez had a pretty good year for the Phillies. Posting a 3.3 WAR, slashing .294/.371/.393 (.764 OPS), with 6 homers and 39 RBI.
He’s got the speed (36 SB last two seasons), and bat (.285/.358/.374 last two seasons) to provide something of value to any team he is on.
However, the Phillies have circumstances in play that could make it wise to sell high on Hernandez now.
Here’s why:
Aug 6, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez (16) fields a ground ball during the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers won 10-8. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Cesar Hernandez was good, but is this it?
More from That Balls Outta Here
When talking about maximizing potential, it can mean many things.
Whether it’s capitalizing from a player peaking on the field, or realizing this is that players peak – teams must try to capitalize on a productive players value at some point.
The Phillies have shown the willingness to trade a player even before they peak. Whether it’s avoiding paying a player at a certain point (Ken Giles trade), potentially trading a player who may have peaked (not the case, but there were Odubel Herrera trade questions), or potentially avoiding a player breaking down (Vince Velasquez trade rumors) – the fact that it’s happened with Giles, and talks have come about on the Herrera/Velasquez front, shows the Phillies are not trying to miss out on any players value.
Cesar Hernandez will be 27 next season. While certainly still young, and under club control until 2021, one could argue if it time to cash in on whatever value he can bring in return, because potentially Hernandez has peaked.
It’s not hard to see:
Aug 27, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez (16) beats the tag of New York Mets shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (13) for a stolen base in the third inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Hernandez’s flaws could hinder him reaching whatever ceiling he has.
Cesar Hernandez is player who can easily frustrate those watching. He can hit. But that’s pretty much it.
His dWAR was a career best 0.7 in 2016. But it doesn’t get better from there.
Hernandez (as a second basemen) has committed 20 errors, carries a -0.8 dWAR, along with a 4.63 range factor per 9 innings (RF/9) and 4.12 range factor per game (RF/G) in his career.
These numbers would put Hernandez into “bad” category when talking about his defense. His weak arm and lack of awareness really stand out on the field.
But that’s not the only area where Hernandez shows a lack of awareness. Hernandez got caught stealing 13 times in 2016. That was good enough for second in the NL, trailing only MLB leader in stolen bases, Milwaukee Brewers third basemen Jonathan Villar (61 SB to 18 CS).
Hernandez’s base running issues go beyond swiping bags, though. He’s constantly caught leaning off bases, his head never appears in the game when on base, and he just doesn’t utilize his speed to his fullest capabilities.
Players will have flaws, that’s understandable. But Hernandez has become one of the more head scratching Phillies in quite some time. His talent is evident, but he just can’t seem to put it all together for consistent stretches.
Which leads me to….
There’s a logjam in the middle infield brewing for the Phillies, and Hernandez might already be the odd man out.
Philadelphia Phillies shortstop J.P. Crawford (77) throws during a spring training baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
J.P Crawford (21) has all the tools to be next great Phillie. He’s the Phillies top rated prospect, and it’s only a matter of time before he’s making an impact in South Philadelphia.
Scott Kingery (22) is another to start discussing. He has all the makings of an elite leadoff hitter and steady second basemen. And he too is quickly rising up the teams ranks (13th rated team prospect by MLB pipeline, 2018 ETA).
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There’s not even a need to mention other prospects in this case. It’s easy to see where Hernandez falls into this situation.
Out of it.
There’s also this guy…
Oct 2, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Freddy Galvis (13) waves to the fans as he walks off the field after a victory against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The Philadelphia Phillies won 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Freddy Galvis is not going anywhere.
Freddy Galvis is by no means an all-star. But there’s a spot for a player like Galvis on every team in baseball.
He’s a poor hitter. The soon-to-be 27 year old really lacks discipline and a consistent approach at the plate. His league worst .274 OBP solidifies that.
Galvis is never going to be a OBP machine. That’s clear. But he does have power.
His 20 home runs were 10th in baseball among shortstops, and his 49 extra base hits were 11th at the position. The power threat that Galvis provides, added in with his .296 batting average in high leverage situations proves Galvis isn’t just an out.
Galvis also had the same number of steals (17) as Cesar Hernandez, getting caught just 6 times (compared to Hernandez’s 13). His 17 swipes were also sixth among MLB shortstops.
Defensively, it’s not even close. Galvis is one of the most sure handed players in baseball (highest fielding percentage among SS at .987). If he’s not an elite defender, he’s pretty darn close. But he’s far superior to Hernandez on that side of the ball.
He doesn’t make mistakes in the field, he can pop one, has incredible baseball instincts, and is a clear clubhouse leader. He may not hit for a better average or get on base more than Hernandez, but it’s not close who brings more to every game.
When the aforementioned Crawford arrives, Galvis is a prime candidate for a move to second. But in terms of his future with the Phils, he’s staying put.
Which brings me to my final point…
Jun 16, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez (16) is hit in the face on a ground ball hit by Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak (not pictured) during the ninth inning at Citizens Bank Park. The Toronto Blue Jays won 13-2. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
If Cesar Hernandez is not playing everyday, he should not be on the Phillies.
I don’t really know if Hernandez will turn out to be a consistent everyday player. His flaws really stand out watching everyday.
Which is why with players like Galvis, Crawford, Kingery, etc., in the fold – along with the abundance of money the team could throw at a player – it’s hard to see Hernandez becoming anything more than a bench/utility player with this team moving forward.
For a player with very limited versatility (he’s played SS, 3B, and CF, with worse results), a .213 career average as a pinch hitter, and zero career stolen bases as a substitute – how exactly is that going to work?
While Hernandez may not have a place with the Phillies as a regular, he may still have a ceiling to reach with another organization. Again, he’s only 27 and has tools to play with.
Maybe someone can un-tap his potential.
For the Phillies, they have the luxury to not be that someone.
All things considered, the Phils are better off not waiting on Hernandez becoming a utility player (at best) for them, and should be selling high on his productive 2016 now.
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