Pittsburgh Pirates: Expectations for Gerrit Cole in 2017
After a stellar 2015 season, Pittsburgh Pirates' ace Gerrit Cole dealt with a down year in 2016. What should the Pirates expect from him in 2017?
As a team, the Pirates struggled in 2016. They failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012. Down years for key players caused inconsistency throughout the clubhouse. Both offensive leader Andrew McCutchen and ace Gerrit Cole produced some of the worst numbers of their careers.
The Pirates need Cole to return to ace form in 2017. In 2012, Cole ranked seventh on MLB.com's Prospect Watch. The following year, Cole pitched for the Pirates and in 19 starts, he posted a 3.22 ERA with a 10-7 record and 100 strikeouts. Then in 2014, he started 22 games. He went 11-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 138 strikeouts.
Cole emerged as the Pirates' ace in 2015. He earned his first All-Star Game selection and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting. He finished the season with a 19-8 record, a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts. His bWAR reached a career-high 4.5.
The 2016 season didn't result in the same success as 2015 did. Cole suffered a triceps injury in June and it kept him out for around a month. In September, the Pirates shut Cole down for the remainder of the season because of right elbow posterior inflammation. His season ended with a 3.88 ERA, a 7-10 record and 98 strikeouts in 21 starts.
Expect Cole to bounce back in 2017. The Pirates need Cole back to guide the team next season. Especially with the inexperience of the rest of the rotation. Behind Cole, the Pirates' rotation consists of Ivan Nova and three young starters Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl and Tyler Glasnow.
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According to Fangraphs.com steamer, a statistical service on the site that predicts the upcoming year's stats, Cole's numbers won't improve much in 2017. He'll post a 12-10 record with a 3.69 ERA and 174 strikeouts.
In my opinion, Cole's numbers in 2017 won't disappoint. Expect his ERA to fall down into the 2.70-range and his win total to reach around 15. He'll also post his second 200-plus strikeout season.
Cole possesses some of the best talent among MLB pitchers. An injury-plagued 2016 season played a big factor in his down year. The Pirates sit in a tough NL Central division with two top MLB teams in the St. Louis Cardinals and the defending world champion Chicago Cubs. They'll battle for a playoff spot in 2017 but making it far into October falls onto Cole and other key players like McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco.
Expect a nice bounce-back season for Cole but don't expect to see Pittsburgh reach the playoffs in 2017. Their combination of youth and division opponents will keep them out for the second straight season.
