Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The Pittsburgh Pirates took a step back in 2016 after a number of years consistently challenging for the playoffs. Can their farm help them return to contention in 2017?
An Introduction
Our minor league top 10 series is coordinated by Benjamin Chase, one of our contributors at Call to the Pen.
He has pored over thousands of minor league games over the course of the year via milb.tv along with speaking with a number of team and independent scouts. These lists are based out of those conversations.
Each system will have prospects from 10 to 1, and then finish with one newcomer to the system that is worth keeping an eye on that is not in the top 10 at this time.
Conversations are certainly encouraged in the comments section on each system as we go along!
Pirates System Review
The Pirates spent nearly 20 years mired in mediocrity, continually swinging and missing from their own system and never really producing the guys they needed to take that next step as an organization.
That all seemed to change when Neal Huntington was brought in as the general manager of the team in 2007 and immediately began an overhaul of the minor league system on up, putting big emphasis on producing consistent players from that minor league system in order to compete in a mid-level to lower-tier financial market.
The Pirates have done a tremendous job building up their team through their minor league system as they now have arguably the best outfield in the league with all home-grown players in Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco.
They also boast a number of pieces in the major league team that came through the minor league system along with guys that they signed as international free agents such as Jung Ho Kang, Jordy Mercer, Tony Watson, and Gerrit Cole.
The Pirates are now heavy in trade rumors this offseason with their star Andrew McCutchen due to his contract soon to expire after 2017 and wanting to get something for him rather than letting him walk, and also because they have players ready in their system to step up.
The 2017 Pirates could be younger, but they could be even better than the 2016 version.
Let’s take a look at the top 10!
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10. Alen Hanson, 2B
Birthdate: 10/22/92 (24 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA, MLBStats in 2016: .266/.318/.389, 8 HR, 36 SB
While Hanson’s ceiling may not be what it was once considered to be when he first broke through in the early 2010s, he’s continued to show he has a high floor as a utility player around the infield at the pro level, even if he isn’t likely to be the elite middle infielder many were hoping for a few years ago.
Hanson has plus speed that he uses to key his hitting, putting plenty of balls on the ground, and when he keeps his focus on line drives, he does very well, but he does have enough strength that he can fall in love with pulling the ball a bit, especially from his natural right side, and that hurts his hitting when he gets into that path.
Hanson can run in the field, but his natural instincts in the field are less than excellent. He also has a below-average arm, so playing full-time at short isn’t in his future, but he’s shown solid enough glove work to still be able to play a little as needed at the position.
He has shown the ability to handle multiple positions over multiple days of the week without hurting his focus, which is a huge plus for his major league path.
One scout really keyed this to me when he encouraged me to watch Hansen and then watch early Josh Harrison and try to find the big difference. It’s awfully hard to see a lot of difference in the two in their raw skill sets as you watch.
Hanson will most likely work off the bench in Pittsburgh to open the year, though Kang’s legal troubles this offseason may give him a chance to open the season starting much like Harrison has in the past.
9. Taylor Hearn, LHP
Birthdate: 8/30/94 (22 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, low AStats in 2016: 51 2/3 IP, 2.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.7 BB%, 34.88 K%
Hearn was drafted on three separate occasions before he chose to sign with the Nationals as a 5th round selection in 2015. He was targeted by the Pirates in their return for Mark Melancon at the trade deadline this past season.
Hearn really fits the prototype for a Pittsburgh pitching prospect, living off of his fastball first. It’s a very good fastball as well, touching 98-99 in short bursts, but sitting 92-95 with excellent plane from his 6’5″ frame and high 3/4 arm slot that also generates late movement on the pitch.
Hearn pairs his fastball with a slider that flashes elite potential but sits more as a fringe-plus pitch. The slider is a definite swing-and-miss pitch with hard, late break that leaves hitters flailing.
Hearn’s change has been used infrequently in his background, so there is plenty of development to do, but he showed flashes of excellence with the pitch and has shown an ability to control the pitch if nothing else.
A broken foot while covering first base this season cut down Hearn’s season before he could really burst on the scene, but he is a guy to definitely track in this system. If the Pirates continue to develop him as a starter, there is an elite level of ceiling there. If they choose to allow him to move quickly with his fastball/slider combination to the bullpen, he could be a back-end guy in a bullpen very quickly.
Hearn will likely open in full-season ball, most likely in high-A, but if the Pirates choose to move him full-time to relief, he could quickly jump up the system.
8. Will Craig, 3B
Birthdate: 11/16/94 (22 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: short season AStats in 2016: .280/.412/.362, 2 HR, 2 SB
A guy considered a solid two-way player, Craig was an elite producer with the bat, nearly winning the triple crown for the ACC in both his sophomore and junior seasons.
Craig is a big guy and likely will have to work hard to keep his conditioning up to stay at third base, but his plus arm certainly plays well there. He will need to continue to work at his third base fielding to stay there, but the raw skills are there.
Craig is a guy who has an incredible bat. He didn’t hit for the over-the-fence power in his pro debut in game, but he put on shows in batting practice that received a lot of notice.
Craig has excellent contact skills and he also has elite pitch recognition, especially for a power hitter. This was on display in his 41/37 BB/K ratio in 218 at bats in the New York-Penn League.
Craig will certainly be part of a full-season team in 2017, and it’s quite feasible to see the Pirates jump Craig past low-A to high-A, but it depends on how much work they want to do on his third base skills.
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7. Nick Kingham, RHP
Birthdate: 11/8/91 (25 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, high A, AAStats in 2016: 46 IP, 2.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 3.35 BB%, 20.11 K%
Kingham had put himself on the cusp of the big leagues before having Tommy John surgery in early 2015. He came back in the second half of 2016 to throw a few innings, so he’ll have another year of getting his arm healthy in 2017, but he showed to be back right in line in performance.
Kingham when healthy has a fastball that works in the low- to mid-90s with excellent sink along with a curve that does excellent in also creating weak contact.
His change showed excellent in his return, after ticking up in his last year before surgery, when it was flashing consistent plus and definitely above-average. He can get swing and miss on the pitch with some level of cut to the pitch and excellent arm deception on the pitch.
Kingham is not a guy who will likely ever be an ace pitcher, but he’s already shown tremendously well and should be a solid mid-rotation guy that eats up innings creating weak contact and avoiding extra base runners.
Kingham will likely open in AA or AAA and get a quick call to the big league club the first opening he’s needed.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
6. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B
Birthdate: 1/28/97 (19 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookie, low AStats in 2016: .266/.323/.397, 6 HR, 6 SB
The son of former big league third baseman Charlie Hayes, Hayes has some excellent baseball smarts and used his talent to get selected as #32 overall in the 2015 draft.
The Pirates left Hayes in extended spring to start the year, but he moved up and played in the full-season South Atlantic League in his first full year, getting 65 games in.
Hayes has the chance to be a guy who drastically surpasses his father’s overall production. He’s not a great runner, but he’s very smart on the bases, and as evidenced by his six steals, he knows when to picks his spots well.
Hayes may not be a great raw runner, but he has tremendous quick twitch that allows him to be a plus fielder at third with a fringe-plus arm.
Hayes already flashes plus raw power and has extremely fast hands through the zone. He has work to do on his pitch recognition, but that’s not surprising for a teenager in his first full pro season.
Hayes will likely see high-A to open 2017.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
5. Josh Bell, 1B
Birthdate: 8/14/92 (24 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: AAA, MLBStats in 2016: .295/.382/.468, 14 HR, 3 SB (minor league stats only)
Bell is a guy who has been on the prospect radar since he was drafted in the 2nd round in 2011. He was given a significant bonus in one of the last non-slotted drafts to buy him away from his college commitment.
Bell has taken his time to develop, but he’s certainly turned into exactly the type of player that the Pirates had envisioned, with tremendous ability to make contact from both sides of the plate as a switch hitter with tremendous raw power.
Bell is an extremely intelligent player, and he has worked hard to become tremendous at pitch recognition, holding him to limited strikeout rates for a big guy. He’s also someone who has excellent work ethic, so even at 240-250 pounds, he’s athletic enough that he could play outfield.
Bell made the transition to first base full time at the upper minors after working in the outfield on his way up, but it was not due to his defensive issues, more due to a stacked Pirate outfield that they wanted to find a way to help him crack into the big league club.
He may not be a guy to hit 30 home runs in 2017, but he will be a guy who has that kind of ability as he builds into his frame.
4. Kevin Newman, SS
Birthdate: 8/4/93 (23 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: high A, AAStats in 2016: .320/.389/.426, 5 HR, 10 SB
Newman is a guy who just hits, and then he hits, then he sleeps a bit, wakes up, and he hits some more.
Newman was a guy who ESPN prospect analyst Keith Law has been a big fan of since 2015, stating that he believed Newman was on par with guys like Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman. While we saw Bregman and Swanson in the majors in 2016, that doesn’t lessen the contributions that Newman has made already.
Newman moved quickly past high-A this year, going to AA, and while his batting average took a “hit” at only .288, he continued to show the elite contact ability and pitch recognition, finishing his AA time with a 28/24 BB/K rate in 233 AA at bats.
Newman defensively has handled shortstop due to very good instincts and baseball smarts, his natural range and arm make him a better fit at second base going forward. He’s also not a guy who likely will hit 20 home runs or steal 30 bases, but he does use gap power well and run the bases extremely well, so those are not lost skills either.
Newman could make a push to take over second base as soon as mid-season 2017, but he should start the year in AAA.
3. Mitch Keller, RHP
Birthdate: 4/4/96 (20 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: low A, high AStats in 2016: 130 1/3 IP, 2.35 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.72 BB%, 27.01 K%
Of the half dozen guys I talked with about Keller, two told me that he’s their #1 Pirates prospect, with one telling me that it was “not even close”. That’s a big time compliment considering the other players in the Pirates top 5.
Keller was drafted out of high school in Iowa in 2014, so they’ve done a nice job of letting him slowly build up innings as a cold weather pitcher as he had minor injuries he worked through as well. This smart handling has also allowed Keller to build up his secondary stuff to the point where he could move very quickly now as the gloves are off for Keller on innings.
Keller has always had an elite fastball, both in velocity and in movement. He gets a ton of weak contact on the pitch due to it’s late combination of sink and run. He ticked up from sitting 90-92 to sitting more in the 92-94 range and he can now touch 95-96.
Keller compliments that fastball with a curve that has very tight spin in an 11-to-5 drop, giving him an interesting look from a righty to get that type of drop on the pitch.
Keller’s change took a monster step forward in 2016, and you can see that in his walk rates. Rather than having to attack with pitches out of the zone late in the count, Keller could attack with the change to get weak contact and avoid free base runners.
Keller has established himself as one of the truly elite prospects in all of the game. He’ll likely be in high-A to open 2017, but he could move to AA by the end of the year in his age 21 year.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2. Austin Meadows, OF
Birthdate: 5/3/95 (21 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: short season A, AA, AAAStats in 2016: .266/.333/.536 12 HR, 17 SB
There are plenty of arguments for Meadows to be #1 in this list or to be as low as #5. He’s a tremendous talent, and there’s simply no doubt about that. The main issue for Meadows has been remaining healthy.
Meadows had another year of injury issues in 2016, but when healthy, he really showed his elite talent. He was able to have 25 doubles and 11 triples along with his 12 home runs in just 308 at bats, primarily in AA/AAA, which is incredible power, especially for a guy who had a hamstring issue that should have made stretching out those doubles and triples an issue.
Meadows is a guy who has an elite blend of tools outside of his arm in the outfield, which is below-average. Unlike Polanco and Marte, who profile at any of the three outfield positions, Meadows would struggle in right field due to his arm, but he would be an elite fielder at any outfield spot.
Meadows has excellent pitch recognition, and he should be a guy who has the abiliity to put together excellent walk rates in the major leagues. His power and speed should allow him to be a guy who could hit 20+ home runs and challenge for 20+ stolen bases as well.
If McCutchen is still in-house, Meadows will spend the season with Indianapolis in the International League, but he could open up in the major league outfield if McCutchen is moved.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
1. Tyler Glasnow, RHP
Birthdate: 8/23/93 (23 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: AA, AAA, MLBStats in 2016: 116 2/3 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 14.62 BB%, 30.97 K% (minor league stats only)
Glasnow is a guy who is an impressive figure on the pitching mound at 6’8″, and he’s been a guy who has been on the prospect radar since being a 5th round selection out of high school in 2011.
Glasnow has an elite fastball that he gets exceptional plane on from his height, reaching upper 90s and sitting consistently in the mid-90s late into games. The fastball gets a ton of swing and miss with heavy late sink on the pitch.
Glasnow features a plus curve to pair with that fastball, and it also gets a ton of swings with a huge break on the curve. That break has been the major issue with the pitch as Glasnow has had struggles keeping the pitch in the zone because it would drop so far on him.
His change is a fringe-plus pitch that can flash as a definite plus pitch at times, especially when he gets on top of the pitch and can get the late cut on the pitch that he can get, which gives him the look of his fastball all the way until the ball darts rather than sinks.
Glasnow has the big issue that most guys of his height do – staying consistently in his mechanics. He takes a big step forward with his long legs, and when he gets off in his landing spot, he can struggle to locate in the zone.
Due to the tremendous movement he gets on his pitches, he will always have some issues with walk rate, but he’ll also get a ton of swing and miss. I’ve been an advocate for a long time for guys to use the split finger more, and Glasnow is a perfect example of a guy who that would work tremendously well as a fourth pitch.
He’ll nearly certainly open the season in the Pirates rotation, and the big righty will figure prominently in top 100 lists this offseason.
Newcomer to Keep an Eye On: Braeden Ogle, LHP
Birthdate: 7/30/97 (19 years old)Level(s) Played in 2016: rookieStats in 2016: 27 2/3 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10 BB%, 18.18 K%
While the Pirates have a wealth of pitching in their system and a noted reputation for developing pitching, Ogle may present one of the most intriguing draft cases of the 2016 draft in pairing a team to a player.
More from Call to the Pen
Ogle is very, very raw in his pitching ability with a fastball that can touch 96-97 MPH, a power curve that at its best has the hard break of a slider, but the depth of a curve, and a change that he has worked in progressively.
That all waned during his senior year of high school as he lost velocity badly over the course of the year along with losing his mechanics, which led to some rough control.
The Pirates addressed the mechanical issue first, and it was seen in his ability to keep the ball off the barrel of the bat of opposing hitters, though he didn’t see the strikeouts that should come as the Pirates work with him in harnessing his “stuff” better.
All in all, if I were looking at where I’d want to see Ogle drafted coming into the 2016 draft as a friend or relative of Ogle’s, the Pirates were one of maybe 2-3 teams that would have topped that list. He’s going to be in a system that should give him every opportunity to maximize what is a high level of raw talent.
Agree? Disagree? Someone you have a question about from the system? Leave a comment down below!
