Major League Baseball

MLB playoff odds: Best bet for Yankees-Guardians Game 5 of division round

Updated Oct. 18, 2022 6:09 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The final MLB division series round is down to one last game.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing:

Class is back in session!

Here is my favorite bet for Tuesday's Cleveland Guardians-New York Yankees game, with odds via FOX Bet.

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Cleveland Guardians (Aaron Civale) at New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes), 4:07 p.m. ET, TBS

Pitching strategy is a good place to start for where to find value.

Originally, it looked like the Guardians and Yankees were going to make Game 5 a "bullpen game" where no one pitcher lasts more than a couple of innings. Because of the inclement weather, the Yankees decided to change course and use Nestor Cortes, while Cleveland is sticking with Aaron Civale.

However, Cortes is working on three days’ rest, something he hasn’t done since he was pitching in relief last season. That fact tells me just because Cortes is pitching doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t still treat it like a "bullpen game" and have several arms coming in for specific matchups. That leads me to lean on Cleveland under 3.5 total runs (-175 on FOX Bet).

While I was not expecting to sweat my World Series pick this early in the postseason, I still like the Yankees to advance, so I’m looking for a parlay for an outright win with a hitter getting on base.

Run value is a Statcast metric that looks at how hitters add or subtract to the potential of scoring runs based upon the count, outs and runners on base. Not only can this stat be grouped by hitters and teams, it can also be categorized by the types of pitches hitters face.

One hitter who can handle curveballs is Anthony Rizzo. I like his chances to pounce on Cleveland pitching early, so I will parlay Rizzo to score a run and the Yankees to win.

PICK: Parlay, Anthony Rizzo to score a run, Yankees to win (+230 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $33 total)

Remember to pace yourself during your studies this postseason because the lessons will keep on coming.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

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