Major League Baseball

Ranking National League Cy Young candidates

Updated Sep. 27, 2023 6:42 p.m. ET

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Rob Friedman

FOX Sports MLB Analyst

What started out as a close race for the National League Cy Young award at the beginning of September has turned into a runaway. Here's a breakdown of the contenders and your now overwhelming favorite.

6. Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Zac Gallen is a true pitcher and has had a very solid season. I know wins have been discounted by Cy Young voters (rightly so) but Gallen is second in MLB with 17. He's also third in the NL in strikeouts and second in innings, easing the burden on the D-backs' bullpen. Those innings may have taken a slight toll on Gallen since he's faded a bit down the stretch with a 4.45 ERA in September. Nonetheless, it's been an excellent season for the veteran right-hander, as he's established himself as one of the top pitchers in the league. Gallen also has, inadvertently, one of the filthiest pitches in baseball this season.

5. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Webb has quietly had an excellent season. He's second in bWar among NL pitchers and has thrown the most innings in baseball this year. I view innings pitched as an important metric, because not only does it prove sustained excellence but also helps the entire pitching staff in ways that might not show up in his own stats by eating up frames and saving the bullpen. Webb has been solid down the stretch, too, with a 2.02 ERA in September. 

4. Kodai Senga, New York Mets

Senga has exceeded all reasonable expectations for a rookie this season after coming over from Japan. On a pitching staff that started out with two first-ballot Hall of Famers on it, Senga has risen above them all and proven to be the Mets' ace. He's second in the NL in ERA and third in pitcher bWAR. Senga's ghost fork is arguably the most unhittable pitch in baseball, with nearly a 60% whiff rate. The combination of his upper-90s fastball and ghost fork is downright unfair. By any standards, Senga has had a fantastic season and deserves both Cy Young and Rookie of the Year votes.

3. Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs

Steele burst onto the scene this year with a phenomenal season. He's 17-6 with a 3.06 ERA, and his dominant pitching is one of the biggest reasons the Cubs are contenders this year. Steele was a strong contender for the Cy Young award at the beginning of September but has struggled a bit down the stretch, with an ERA near 5.00 for the month. Nonetheless, Steele will undoubtedly receive substantial Cy Young consideration. He doesn't have overwhelming velocity, but his unique cutting fastball combined with a vicious slider makes him extremely tough to hit (as seen in the overlay below). 

2. Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Strider is a sabermetric fan's dream and perhaps the most electric starting pitcher in baseball. He leads the NL in FIP (2.87) and has a 13.6 K/9, which leads the majors by almost two strikeouts and would be the highest mark for a starter in MLB history. Strider has lapped the field in strikeouts, with 40 more than any other pitcher in the National League. For traditionalists, Strider's 19 wins and .792 winning percentage should also garner attention. However, a large part of a pitcher's role is run prevention and that's Strider's Achilles' heel this year. His ERA is 3.81, the highest of all the Cy Young contenders. This is the main reason it's going to be tough for Strider to win the NL Cy Young this season.  

Nonetheless, it's been a magical season for Strider — literally. 

1. Blake Snell, San Diego Padres

Snell has had a magnificent season and has all but clinched the NL Cy Young award. He started out this season slowly with an ERA of over 5.00 through April. However, his second half has been historic. Over his past 23 starts, he's compiled an incredible 1.20 ERA, which is the second-lowest mark in the live ball era behind Bob Gibson in his legendary 1968 season. Amazingly, Snell's ERA in September is a miniscule 0.58. Despite his slow start, his ERA for the season is now a half-run better than any other qualified starting pitcher in baseball. 

The only blemish on Snell's Cy Young candidacy is his high walk total. Snell leads baseball in walks and averages five walks per nine innings. Even though Snell walks hitters at an alarmingly high rate, most of those hitters don't come around to score, thanks in large part to his incredible swing-and-miss stuff. Snell has three separate pitches with over a 46% whiff rate, allowing him to get out of virtually any situation. His curveball has been almost unhittable this year, with over a 57% whiff rate and a .080 batting average against and .141 slugging against. Snell's filthy stuff allows him to repeatedly pull Houdini acts, getting out of the toughest situations.

Snell is also somewhat light on innings pitched at only 180. However, if he averaged a 7.00 ERA for the 20 innings he's behind Gerrit Cole (second in ERA), he'd still end up the MLB ERA leader. Seeing that Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young two years ago with only 167 innings pitched, Snell's innings shouldn't be a barrier to him winning the award.

I expect Snell to win by an overwhelming margin.

Rob Friedman is an MLB pitching analyst for FOX Sports whose work has been featured on many Major League Baseball broadcasts. Follow him on Twitter @PitchingNinja.

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Rob Friedman