Major League Baseball

Red Sox might find the solution to their flaws in Japan

Published Feb. 20, 2022 8:23 p.m. ET

The Boston Red Sox made a surprising run into contention last season, finishing 92-70 in the regular season before advancing all the way to the ALCS.

They did it primarily with an offense that averaged 5.12 runs per game, tied for the fourth-best mark in the league. And they did it despite a below-average pitching staff (4.62 runs/game allowed, tied for 17th) and a defense that ranked last in MLB in defensive efficiency (per Baseball Reference).

In an effort to improve, the Red Sox made some interesting moves in the offseason — before action was shut down by the lockout — signing pitchers Rich Hill and James Paxton, and trading right fielder Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee for Jackie Bradley Jr. and others.

The Renfroe deal was particularly fascinating because it sent away a solid hitter in exchange for Bradley, a premiere defender who will probably remain a backup due to his sub-par bat. So it's a deal that seems to take away from Boston's strength (hitting) while not adding anything to a weakness (defense).

Unless, of course, there are more moves coming.

One such rumored move would have the Red Sox reaching across the Pacific Ocean to pluck a talent from Japan named Seiya Suzuki.

"The fascinating future of Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki tops the list of intrigue once business resumes," Mike Cole of NESN wrote last week. "Boston unsurprisingly is among the teams tied to the free agent outfielder."

Suzuki is a 27-year-old outfielder who hit .317 with 38 home runs and 26 doubles in 134 games for the Hiroshima Carp last season.

And when it comes to defense, Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs writes that Suzuki rates well there, too:

"Projected in a neutral park, ZiPS has Suzuki as a better-than-league-average corner outfielder but one who projects below All-Star levels without another step forward."

It all sounds like a player who could not only replace Renfroe in right field but whose all-around game would benefit the Sox both on offense and in the field.

The problem with all of this, of course, is that if the Red Sox are aware of Suzuki's skills, so is the rest of the league. Various reports have mentioned the Marlins, Cubs, Mariners, Giants, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rangers as being among those to express interest. And Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Mariners and Giants are considered front-runners.

According to Szymborski, however, adding Suzuki would increase the Red Sox's playoff chances by 9.6%. Only seven teams — topped by the Phillies at +15.5% — would receive a bigger boost by signing the Japanese star.

The competition could be fierce, and the price tag could be high, but if Suzuki is Boston's best option, can the Red Sox afford not to go out and get him?