Major League Baseball

Sale or Skubal in a Game 7? Ohtani's 50/50 or Acuña's 40/70? Smoltz weighs in

Published Sep. 25, 2024 7:05 p.m. ET

Paul Skenes or Jackson Merrill for National League Rookie of the Year? Shohei Ohtani's historic 2024 or Ronald Acuña's 2023?

With a week left in the regular season, MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz gave his thoughts on some of baseball's top award races and achievements — as well as one infamous mark the White Sox are hoping to avoid.

As part of our weekly conversation with the Hall of Fame pitcher, Smoltz also shared the rotation he likes the most entering the playoffs and more.

Kavner: Looking at what Shohei Ohtani has done this season, reaching the 50/50 mark, and what Ronald Acuña did last season to get to 40/70, which of those two feats do you find to be more impressive?

Smoltz: Honestly, it's a great question. I think when stolen base is part of your game, I'm more impressed when you combine the stolen base with the power. And what I mean by that is, I've seen too many incidences where the power's first and then the stolen bases come to make it some kind of unique thing.

I'm not a big fan of, once you reach a certain number, trying so hard to get the other number to equal. And that usually follows in the stolen base department. So when you got 70 stolen bases, that's part of your game, that's what makes you special, and then the homers just makes it doubly special.

So, it would probably be crazy for me to say that the 50/50 isn't more impressive. But we're not going to see that again. So, if we're not going to see that again, because that person's not going to do it again, not because they're not capable of hitting 50 home runs, it's just — [the 50 steals] won't be part of their game in the future. So, that would mean that a 40/70 is something that could be part of the future because it's part of the game.

Kavner: Yeah, and you're probably alluding to the fact that I doubt the Dodgers are going to let Ohtani go for 50 stolen bases again if he's pitching every week.

Smoltz: And you can get stolen bases that don't help your team, that's my point. You could have a six-run lead and steal a base. What is that doing? If you get a stolen base because that's what you're capable of doing in a tied or one-run game, that's helping your club, I love that.

But if you're just getting it to get a number, then you see stolen bases that are happening at third base that are insignificant with two outs. There are easy ways to make stats look great. I'm just saying, I'm a fan of a stat that helps your team win and win baseball games. That's what I'm saying.

Kavner: Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill have been neck-and-neck for a while in the National League Rookie of the Year race. You could also throw in Jackson Chourio, who's been incredible in the second half. Who do you have as the NL Rookie of the Year?

Smoltz: I'm pitcher-biased, but I give a slight edge to Merrill. He's an everyday player, helping the Padres possibly pull off the biggest shocker and winning the division. They're in the playoffs, and they're going to be a very tough out, and he's contributed with tremendous late-game heroics. He's been an everyday player in a league that we just mentioned is very difficult to hit.

When you have a hitter doing that as a rookie, even as incredible as Skenes is, it probably is going to give him a slight advantage. Skenes by every measure has had a great season. He's very deserving of Rookie of the Year, and he will have Cy Young votes in the future and will win a Cy Young. That's gonna be interesting to see how the vote goes.

Kavner: Who would you have as your AL Rookie of the Year?

Smoltz: That is a tough question. I would say Luis Gil and what he's done as a pitcher in New York. You could make the same case for Austin Wells, but I would give Gil the nod just because, without Gerrit Cole for so long, the Yankees were really missing on their starting pitching. Gil provided a stability and a dominance that in that league, in that division, that probably trumps the other candidates.

So, now I'm making the opposite argument in the American League for a pitcher than I would be for a position player — in New York, specifically, because it is a little bit easier to hit in New York and hit for power. But I'm going to make the counter-argument in this case in the American League because of how special Gil has been for the New York Yankees for a long time.

Kavner: The White Sox will likely set the record for most losses in MLB's modern era. Is this the worst team that you can recall watching?

Smoltz: Paying attention to the worst teams is probably not my biggest priority. But the Tigers were pretty bad in 2003. I don't know much about the '62 Mets, other than what I saw in the record books.

When you're talking about this day and age in baseball — again, like it, not like it, this is kind of a model to rebuilding a franchise — I don't believe it's a good model. But that's what people are convincing their fan base: We got to strip this thing down. We got to rebuild our farm system. We're going to incur all kinds of prospects. We're going to make trades.

I don't think that's a great formula, but that's what we have today. So, if you go by their formula, they're doing a pretty good job of stripping it down and not being very good. Now, the question is going to be, can they do what the Houston Astros did? Can they do what the Chicago Cubs did? People forget how long-suffering those franchises were before they got World Series championships. I think I can sell a lot of things. I think I would have a hard time selling to my fan base, "Be patient, stay there for seven years and watch us lose, because here's the model of what we're going to have at the end."

I think every case is a little different. I don't know if I could call them the worst team ever because they got some pieces they sold off and some players that are pretty darn good. I think the future is going to be a little bit brighter in Chicago and not take seven years to rebuild like we've seen in other cases.

Kavner: Which team do you think has the best starting rotation heading into the postseason?

Smoltz: Well, my favorite is going to be the healthiest. It may not be the team that I land on right now. Although I could make an argument that these are both the same team, the Philadelphia Phillies. They have four dynamic and five really good pitchers that they've used all year. They've had a hiccup or two, some injuries with a couple of them.

Of course, the Braves are no slouch, and certainly there's others you can make the case for. But the healthiest rotation right now for me is the Phillies'. They have a weapon in the front, those first two guys create all kinds of different challenges. Zack Wheeler's the stud, and he's the guy that's been there, done that. Aaron Nola has gotten his groove on again and been mechanically sound. Then you got Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez. I just think the Phillies and their experience give them a leg up on most of the rotations that are out there.

If you told me that the Baltimore Orioles were going to stay healthy with their rotation, sign me up for that. They've had nothing but injuries and are a shell of themselves. You're seeing teams really suffer. The Los Angeles Dodgers would have a dynamic rotation if those guys were healthy, and they're a shell of themselves. The Houston Astros, I thought, were the most complete roster when you consider what their rotation could be. Too many injuries, they haven't been able to kind of stay locked in.

So, there's going to be some injuries and there's going to be some pitching performances by clubs that are going to have to use 12 guys to get through.

Kavner: Let's finish off with two of the best in the game. If you were in a hypothetical Game 7 right now and had the choice of starting Chris Sale or Tarik Skubal, whom would you select?

Smoltz: Wow. Tarik Skubal right now, only because he's younger. Chris Sale's phenomenal, but what he's doing this year, after all the injuries and not really having a complete year in a long time. I give him all the credit in the world because he's probably, at times, pitched on fumes, and he may be pitching on fumes now. The guy knows how to pitch and he certainly is nasty.

Now, you give me a completely healthy Sale and no issues, and a completely healthy Skubal, I might have to go with Sale. But right now, in my gut, with Tarik's done, he's been phenomenal. That's an unbelievable weapon right now for the Tigers.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB's lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network's marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]