San Francisco Giants pitcher Johnny Cueto has limited trade value
With Johnny Cueto struggling through one of his worst seasons and having a big contract with an opt-out clause, he'll be a tough player for the San Francisco Giants to trade.
The San Francisco Giants are having a terrible season. After going to the playoffs four times in seven years, including three World Series victories, the Giants currently have the second-worst record in baseball. Only the Philadelphia Phillies have been worse than the Giants, who sit 23.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West with a record of 27-50. And it's not like they haven't earned those losses. Their -101 run differential is also the second-worst in baseball.
The Giants' sub-par play goes back to last summer. After starting the 2016 season with a record of 50-31, the Giants were 37-44 from July 1 onward. Despite struggling down the stretch, they were able to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team, beating out the Cardinals by one game. The team's ace pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, shut down the Mets in the one-game playoff, but the Giants' season ended with a three-games-to-one loss to the Cubs in the NLDS.
Prior to this season, the Giants were expected by most baseball experts to be one of the two Wild Card teams in the National League. They looked like an 86- or 87-win team. Instead, they got off to a 9-17 start and haven't improved much since. Along the way, they lost ace Madison Bumgarner to the DL.
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As the season nears its halfway point, the Giants are a distant last place in the NL West and 20 games out of the second Wild Card. Their playoff odds are nearly non-existent. FanGraphs has them with a 0.2 percent chance to make the playoffs. When a team is this far out, it's natural to consider trading high-priced veteran players. One such player is starting pitcher Johnny Cueto.
Unfortunately for the Giants, Cueto is not having a typical Cueto-like season. From 2010 to 2016, Cueto had a 2.86 ERA and 3.41 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) while averaging 185 innings per season. Among starting pitchers with more than 700 innings over this stretch, only Clayton Kershaw had a lower ERA.
This year, Cueto has a 4.20 ERA and 4.51 FIP. He hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 since his second year in the big leagues, back in 2009. The main problem for Cueto is the long ball. He's allowed 18 home runs 100.7 innings, a rate of 1.6 HR per nine innings. That would be a career high for Cueto. Last year, he allowed 0.6 HR per nine innings.
Not only is Cueto having one of his worst years, he also has four years and $84 million left on a contract that lasts through the 2021 season, when he will be 35 years old. This contract includes an opt-out clause that can be exercised following this season.
The expensive contract and the opt-out clause make it difficult for any team looking to acquire Cueto. This confluence of circumstances makes Cueto's trade value negligible. If he continues to pitch like he has so far, the team that acquires him would not want to be saddled with a four-year, $84-million contract. If he turns his season around and posts a sub-3.00 ERA going forward, he can opt-out and look for a bigger contract in the offseason. No team will want to trade a top prospect for a guy who could opt out if he does well or cost the team $84 million over four years if he doesn't.
