Major League Baseball

Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge MVP locks? American League's best bet? Joey Votto, HOFer?

Published Aug. 23, 2024 11:12 a.m. ET

The Dodgers are getting healthy, but are they out of the woods in the National League West? The American League Central is even tighter, and could also feature three playoff teams. But are any of them a stronger title contender than the Yankees, Orioles or Astros?

Also, have Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani all but clinched the respective MVP awards?

FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner tackle these topics and more in this week's roundtable.

1. How confident are you in the Dodgers winning the NL West?

Kavner: I expect it to happen, although if their pitching can't get healthy I wouldn't be shocked if it doesn't. As long as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow come back relatively soon, this Dodgers lineup should be formidable enough to stay ahead now that it's getting whole again. Ultimately, I think getting pushed might not be the worst thing for a Dodgers team that wasn't the past two years — and then got bounced expeditiously in October.

Thosar: The Dodgers' strong August (13-6), including sweeps against the Pirates and Mariners, has allowed them to create a little distance in the NL West, but it's not enough separation that they can breathe easy, either. I'm still pretty confident they'll win the division, since after doing so 10 times in the past 11 years, it has an air of inevitability about it. But I'd feel more convinced about their playoff stamina if the Dodgers finish the month strong and can go on a run here — even a string of series wins or a long winning streak like the seven-game stretch they had to start May. After this weekend's series against a depleted Rays team, Los Angeles will be tested against the Orioles, Diamondbacks and Guardians in playoff-adjacent matchups. If the Dodgers want to really quiet the naysayers, it would help if they left no doubt about who they are and show some dominance. They couldn't do it against the Phillies, but they have plenty of chances in the next couple of weeks to make a huge statement.

2. How would you project the top three teams in the AL Central to finish?

Thosar: The Guardians have spent 118 days in first place, and even though the chase for the division crown is getting tighter, I don't see Cleveland fumbling the ball down the stretch. All eyes will be on the Guardians-Royals matchups coming up — the division rivals play each other seven times in the next 13 days. Those games could very well decide how the season wraps up, maybe even allowing the Twins to inch up the standings while Cleveland and Kansas City are busy duking it out. In the end, I think the Guardians have been one of the most under-the-radar consistent teams this season, along with the Brewers, so I'm expecting that hard work to pay off with their second division title in the past three years. For second in the AL Central, it's truly anyone's game. But the Twins are more of a complete team than Bobby Witt Jr.'s Royals, so I think Minnesota will end up finishing with a better record than Kansas City.

Kavner: There's something about Bobby Witt Jr. guiding this Royals team that has me believing. However, this late in the season, with a group jumbled together this closely, my brain is telling me to focus on strength of schedule. And the Twins have the easiest path of the trio, with matchups against the Marlins, Angels, Blue Jays and Reds still ahead. The Guardians get to play the White Sox, Pirates and Reds. The Royals, meanwhile, have to play the Phillies, Yankees, Astros and Braves. They'll have plenty of opportunities to jump ahead of their division mates with 10 more matchups against the Guardians and Twins, but that is a treacherous road. As concerned as I am about the Joe Ryan injury in the Minnesota rotation, I'll go Twins-Royals-Guardians, with all three earning a playoff berth.

Bobby Witt mashes solo home run to extend Royals' lead vs. Twins

3. What would Bobby Witt Jr. have to do to earn your AL MVP vote over Aaron Judge?

Kavner: If Witt goes on a home run tear and leads the Royals to a division title, that would make things interesting. But Judge probably will have to tail off for Witt to earn the nod. That's not to take anything away from the Royals superstar. By WAR, Witt is on pace for one of the most valuable seasons from a shortstop ever. But for as much as Witt is providing on an all-around basis, it might take something closer to 35-40 home runs while maintaining his .350 batting average to supplant Judge in a season in which the Yankees juggernaut is putting up an offensive season the likes of which we haven't seen since Barry Bonds. He's slugging more than 100 points better than every other major-leaguer. He could hit .330 with 60 home runs, which no one has done since Babe Ruth in 1927.

Thosar: Turn into Barry Bonds? Jokes aside, Bobby Witt Jr. earning the AL MVP at this point in the season would require Aaron Judge to be sidelined, and even then it would be no guarantee that the shortstop would get more votes. Judge's insane power numbers grab voters' attention, and since the Yankees slugger has been the picture of consistency from the moment he put his April slump behind him, essentially giving himself a late start, his performance this year is even more absurd than we realize. Witt is doing an excellent job keeping his batting average up and, in the process, all but blocking Judge from winning that precious triple crown. And Witt would win it nine times out of 10 with the incredible season he's having. But Judge's MLB-leading 48 home runs, 9.2 fWAR (0.1 more than Witt) and absolutely goofy 1.191 OPS makes him a lock for AL MVP.

4. Which AL team do you believe in most right now to win a long series in October?

Thosar: It's a toss-up between the Yankees and Astros, with the latter getting the edge for their recent track record of winning long series, even if they fell just short against the Rangers last year. Houston seems to find another gear in those dramatic, seven-game championship series and World Series rounds, and at this point no one would be surprised if the Astros are once again standing in the Yankees' way come October. The difference for New York this year is, of course, Juan Soto. If Judge wasn't his teammate, Soto would be another front-runner for AL MVP. He very well could be the piece that pushes the Yankees over the top in the postseason, where they've needed a clutch bat other than Giancarlo Stanton's to come through. Their concerning bullpen (No. 20 in the majors since the All-Star break) could make all of this a moot point. So, for now, it's the Astros getting the upper hand until proven otherwise.

Kavner: I predicted the Astros to go to the World Series before the season, and I'm sticking with that here. With Justin Verlander now back, Framber Valdez finding his groove and Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Yusei Kikuchi providing plenty of starting depth, the Astros should have all the pieces they need to win a long series.

5. What would Shohei Ohtani have to do to lose your NL MVP vote?

Kavner: If his September looks like the past few weeks, that'll open the door for someone else. It's been a peculiar month for Ohtani. He's hitting just .198 in August, but seven of his 16 hits have left the yard, keeping him on pace for the first 45-homer, 45-stolen base season in MLB history. He could produce the fastest 40-40 season in baseball history before week's end, but considering he only hits, it has to be an unprecedented year for him to become the first full-time DH to win MVP. But this is less about Ohtani and more about the group behind him, which to this point hasn't done enough to supplant him. Ketel Marte had a chance to change that before he got hurt, but a big finish from Marte, Francisco Lindor or Elly De La Cruz could get it done.

Thosar: If Ohtani runs into a cold spell, he could be opening the door for other top NL position players to sneak into the MVP race. The Dodgers have a tougher schedule coming up, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Ohtani will struggle to be dominant against the better pitching staffs in the league. We have yet to see how the unicorn performs when his team is in contention for the playoffs, and though nobody expects Ohtani to get stage fright, it will be interesting to see if he meets the moment or presses too much. Francisco Lindor leads the NL with a 6.3 fWAR and Marcell Ozuna is threatening to take the NL's home-run crown. If Ohtani finds himself in a slump he struggles to get out of, the NL MVP race could be down to the wire.

BONUS: Do you think Joey Votto is a Hall of Famer?

Thosar: Yes, Votto is a Hall of Famer. He was a franchise player, ranking fourth all-time in Reds' position-player WAR, as well as earning top organizational ranking in other statistical categories like home runs and OBP. That he kept his elite run going for more than a decade, adjusting faster than others to the analytics information wave at the height of his career, and earning MVP votes as late as his age-37 season is a testament to his mark on the game. I'm fully expecting Votto to once again put his charisma on display in five years, when he's inducted into Cooperstown.

Kavner: Ultimately, I think he is, even if it doesn't end up happening on the first ballot. Votto presents a unique case as a first baseman known more for his ability to reach base than to slug or drive in runs (it's worth noting, however, that he did lead the majors in slugging during his MVP season). At his position, it'd be more of a slam dunk if he had 400 home runs or closer to 3,000 hits. Still, Todd Helton just got in without hitting either of those milestones. The hitter's goal is to get on base, and Votto did that better than almost anyone over his 17 big-league seasons. The fact that Votto's a seven-time OBP leader with a higher career OPS+ than Helton, Fred McGriff and David Ortiz, all of whom were recently inducted, probably makes up for the lack of counting stats and makes me believe he should get in. The entertaining personality he brought certainly doesn't hurt, either.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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