Major League Baseball

Shohei Ohtani, Jacob deGrom highlight MLB's 10 most surprising stories of the first half

Updated Jul. 30, 2021 8:12 a.m. ET

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

The All-Star Game (7 p.m. ET Tuesday on FOX) presents the opportunity to celebrate baseball’s most successful seasons.

But before we do that, let’s take a closer look at which players have produced the most unexpected campaigns, good or bad, and what they tell us about what has happened and what is coming.

Bradley is a notoriously streaky hitter, but he awoke on the first day of summer 2021 with a .151 batting average and an even .500 OPS. That sinks beyond his previous downturns and well below what the Brewers hoped for when they signed him to a two-year, $24 million deal three weeks before Opening Day. He has been better lately, and considering his defensive prowess, if he can be even an average hitter, Milwaukee should run away with the NL Central. The Brewers are due to get Lorenzo Cain back shortly after the All-Star break. His return would make theirs by far the best defensive outfield in baseball. Bradley’s reemergence would make Milwaukee a real threat in the National League playoffs.

The Giants are the most surprising team of the season, and there are several choices for their most surprising player: Buster Posey, who is slated to start the All-Star Game after sitting out a year; Kevin Gausman, who might be the second-best starter in baseball; Steven Duggar, who didn’t crack their Opening Day roster but is hitting around .300; and Evan Longoria, who has played better than he had in a half-decade. But Crawford wins because he’s walking, hitting for power, doing it all without interruption and doing it defensively, too. He’s San Francisco’s No. 5 hitter after starting the season eighth in the lineup. That reveals how surprising this stretch has been.

DeGrom entered this season as the consensus best pitcher in baseball, so it defies logic that he can even be considered for this list. But his first half lacks any relevant precedent. He and the Mets have threaded the needle around some injuries to coax 92 innings out of him, at an impossible 1.08 ERA. He DeGrom has been both a power pitcher and a pitch-efficient one, and that’s the most unprecedented part of all this, really. DeGrom is averaging fewer than 82 pitches — but more than six innings — per start. He’s skipping the All-Star Game in an effort to maintain his historic excellence down the stretch as the Mets push for the playoffs.

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Entering his Wednesday start, Gibson’s 1.98 ERA led the American League. It went up some to 2.29, but that's still far superior to anything he has logged before. This is a 33-year-old right-hander who had a 4.99 ERA across the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Does the improvement make sense? Somewhat. He’s limiting walks and suppressing home runs. But he’s striking out opponents at about his previous rate, and that suggests that some regression is to be expected. But barring a Gibson collapse, if the Rangers choose to, they should be able to swap him at the trade deadline for a young talent who will help in the future. Gibson is on an affordable contract that continues at an even more affordable rate in 2022. The Rangers don’t always trade the expected veterans, but in this case, it would be quite surprising if they did not.

With a 6.00 ERA in 36 innings between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Kimbrel had been even worse than Gibson. The Cubs' closer is approaching that innings total in 2021, but his ERA is about one-tenth of that. His peripheral statistics have returned to their past peaks, indicating this is for real and giving the floundering Cubs reasons aplenty to demand a substantial return in trade. Two things worth noting: (1) This is the second rebound of Kimbrel’s career. He bounced back from an unspectacular 2016 with the Red Sox to dominate in 2017. (2) He is on track to approach, if not reach, his 2022 vesting option based on games finished. That isn't a dealbreaker. If he’s still dominating down the stretch, he’ll probably be welcomed back in 2022 at $16 million.

Mullins is responsible for maybe the most surprising season in the sport. His emergence has fewer trade-market implications than most everyone else on this list; the Orioles are still sellers, but they’re probably not selling him. Mullins is 26, was drafted and developed by the Orioles, and looks like a keeper. That means Baltimore has an actual young, major-league player at a premium position to build around. It has been a while since that could be said. There are more on the way, too. There are signs of hope.

What else can be said? We knew Ohtani could pitch. We knew he could hit. How many knew he could do them both so well, at the same time, for this long? Pick your statistic to signify it. Here’s one: Ohtani's 2021 slugging percentage is on the verge of doubling his 2020 slugging percentage.

Ray had a 2.00 WHIP and an even 31 walks in 31 innings when Toronto traded for him last summer. It didn’t seem to make much sense, but he was OK in four 2020 starts for the Blue Jays, and he has been very good through 16 starts this season. His WHIP is almost half of his Diamondbacks mark last year, and he’s still striking out a ton of hitters. Homers have been his only undoing. What’s particularly interesting about Ray’s success is where it fits into the Blue Jays’ standing. If he can remain a top-of-the-rotation arm and the lineup stays healthy, this team looks like something of a sleeping giant. Between Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernández and, now, George Springer, they might have five well-above-average position players. Their run differential is already good, and it should get better. Look closely, and the Blue Jays look like a contender.

Suárez is two years removed from a 49-homer season. He’s still on track to surpass 30 homers this season, but he probably shouldn’t be allowed to get there with the way he is hitting. His .177 batting average and .256 on-base percentage have made him one of baseball’s worst hitters. According to Baseball-Reference, he has cost the Reds more than a win compared to what a replacement player would provide. The team is partly to blame for using him some at shortstop, where he is not exactly competent. But imagine how the NL Central race could look if Cincinnati could combine All-Star outfielders Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker with a better Suárez.

It was not at all clear what to expect from Stroman this season. He pitched only competently for the Mets in 2019 after they acquired him from Toronto. Last season he was hurt and then opted out. He pitched only one full season out of the previous three, but now he’s on track to make that two of four. DeGrom has propped up his team, of course, but Stroman’s consistency is a significant reason the Mets are in playoff position despite their unimpressive offense. (Credit Taijuan Walker, too.) Stroman’s recent left hip injury seems to be under control, but if it hampers him, don’t be surprised if the Mets suffer. If he continues to log innings, he’ll be in line for a sizable contract come free agency this winter.

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He most recently covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic. Previously, he spent five years covering the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and Los Angeles Times. More previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in the Southern California suburbs. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.