Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers? Staff predictions from the winter meetings (Pt. 1)
Hot stove season is upon us. And while the MLB offseason has been quiet thus far, expect a flurry of activity in the coming days.
Many of the game's key decision-makers are gathering in Nashville, Tennessee this week for the winter meetings — and there's so much yet to be resolved. It starts with where Shohei Ohtani will sign and whether Juan Soto will be traded, but there's no telling where the wheeling and dealing could end.
FOX Sports MLB experts Jordan Shusterman, Deesha Thosar and Jake Mintz are in Nashville to cover the annual proceedings. With nearly every major free agent and trade candidate still on the board, the crew offers its thoughts and predictions on what's next in our weekly roundtable.
1. An Ohtani decision is reportedly nearing and the Los Angeles Dodgers remain the odds-on favorites to land him. How confident are you in L.A. signing the two-way superstar (on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the highest)? If he doesn't go there, which team signs him?
Shusterman: Six? I suppose I still consider them the favorites knowing they have every reason and intention of pursuing him to the fullest possible extent with no reservations, but we still know next to nothing about what Ohtani himself is looking for. Thus, I still won't be that shocked if he chooses elsewhere – and I'll go with the Cubs as the most likely alternative.
Thosar: With a recent report stating previous front-runners like the Rangers and Red Sox are turning their attention away from Ohtani, the Dodgers still look like the favorite landing spot. I was confident the Dodgers would sign Ohtani from the onset of his free agency. But now, with others apparently dropping out, Los Angeles appears to be the last team standing that would check off Ohtani's box of winning consistently. On a scale of 1-10, I'll go with 7. If not the Dodgers, I'm intrigued by the possibility of the Cubs signing Ohtani, particularly due to their ownership stake in Marquee Sports Network. No one player will award MSN with more subscriptions and eyeballs than Ohtani.
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Mintz: I'm not confident in anything in this world, I don't even know where I'm going for dinner tonight, so I'll put a two on it. We're getting closer to a conclusion for the Ohtani sweepstakes, but the information remains light. We still have no clue what Ohtani wants, and I'm not going to sit here and pretend like I have any idea either. So … I dunno … the Cubs?
2. If the Dodgers don't sign Ohtani, how can they salvage their offseason?
Shusterman: By acquiring multiple front-end arms (one via free agency and one via trade) and either reuniting with J.D. Martinez or bringing in another upside DH-type like Jorge Soler. The truth is, though, missing out on Ohtani is going to be tough to recover from, no matter what moves they make.
Thosar: The free-agent departure of J.D. Martinez means the Dodgers need a designated hitter if they don't fill that hole with Ohtani. The market for DH is particularly thin, but the Dodgers can go and get Jorge Soler to satisfy that need. Beyond offense, L.A. also has some rotation concerns that are punctuated by Clayton Kershaw's durability issues. A trade for Corbin Burnes would certainly be eye-popping enough that it'll salvage the Dodgers' offseason.
Mintz: By moving back to Brooklyn. Just pack it up at that point. Dodgers fans have banked on an Ohtani arrival for years. Anything less is a catastrophe. The organization as a whole is still a force and the big league team will still be great, but no Ohtani would obliterate the already meh vibes.
3. What part of the market do you expect to be most active during the winter meetings?
Shusterman: I think we'll keep seeing starting pitchers below the tippy-top tier of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery continue to move quickly (Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty, etc.). For entertainment's sake, I'd love to see the starting pitching trade market heat up as well if some teams don't want to wait around – or pay for – the free agents. Trades are always more fun!
Thosar: I'm expecting position players to start getting off the board, particularly given the lack of movement we've seen so far from this group. A couple of bigger names, like Juan Soto and Cody Bellinger who are both represented by agent Scott Boras, could be moved soon.
Mintz: I'm gonna say the trade market. Put a bunch of GMs in one place and they'll come up with some wacky ideas.
4. After Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman are the top free agents among position players. What's your best guess for where each will sign?
Shusterman: I'll say Giants for both! I think the Cubs are a nice fit for Chapman if they want to lean all the way into infield defense, but they may want more of a sure thing offensive upgrade somewhere. Also, here's a mildly spicy take: I think the Blue Jays are a better fit for Bellinger than they are for a Chapman reunion.
Thosar: Bellinger has the opportunity to stay with Cubs – if Chicago doesn't land Ohtani, that is. Bellinger will come at a high asking price and the Cubs are clear contenders now following their big move for manager Craig Counsell. As for Matt Chapman, the Brewers have a need for corner infielders and he could be a solid fit in Milwaukee at third base.
Mintz: We've had very little buzz on both, so I'm playing blindfolded darts here. Let's say Bellinger to the Yanks and Chapman to the Giants.
5. Which club would be impacted most by adding Josh Hader?
Shusterman: Dodgers. Especially in a scenario where they miss out on Ohtani and have money to spend, I could imagine them being one of the few teams willing to shell out a possibly record contract for the dominant closer.
Thosar: The Phillies. For all their effort to make it back to the postseason, they fizzled out in the NLCS to the Diamondbacks with more of the same predictable problems. The Phillies still need bullpen help. They had the second-most blown saves (18) in MLB in 2023, and the Rangers were right behind them with 17 blown saves. Historically, Hader is more of a ground-ball pitcher than a fly-ball pitcher, so he shouldn't be too impacted by the Citizens Bank Park bandbox.
Mintz: The Orioles. A ton of Baltimore's 2023 pitching strategy relied upon Félix Bautista's ninth-inning dominance to shorten ballgames. A torn UCL has "The Mountain" sidelined for all of 2024 and leaves a big hole in the Birds' late-game group. It's worth noting that Hader would represent an enormous shift in spending and strategy for the typically spendthrift O's.
This story was compiled by: Deesha Thosar (@DeeshaThosar), Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz (@CespedesBBQ).
