Major League Baseball

Should Shohei Ohtani become a reliever to preserve his arm? John Smoltz weighs in

Updated Sep. 25, 2023 9:00 p.m. ET

John Smoltz is sounding the alarm on Shohei Ohtani.

The former Cy Young winner knows that the recovery process from Tommy John surgery continues to be refined and impoved. But Smoltz also sees the rate of UCL injuries skyrocketing, particularly at the MLB level, and he believes Ohtani's tear — which will likely necessitate the Angels' two-way superstar undergoing his second Tommy John surgery since 2018 — is the product of a troubling trend. Smoltz, who underwent UCL reconstruction in the middle of his Hall of Fame career, shed light on the situation during our most recent edition of "Saturdays with Smoltz."

"This was not a surgery supposed to be performed multiple times," Smoltz said on "Flippin' Bats." "It's just not. But I think the way that guys are training and the way that they're throwing a baseball just leads to more and more multiple Tommy Johns. I wish it wasn't the case.

"I've said it for 10 years now, I've been predicting this. The training and the philosophy and the reward system is begging for this to happen, meaning you have to throw hard to get looked at. So what is everybody going to do to train? They're going to train to throw hard. They're training for shorter careers. You almost have to be a freak or mechanical stud to avoid any sort of these surgeries or injuries to interrupt your career."

Though Ohtani obviously did not grow up in the American baseball-development system, a lot of his pitching dominance comes from his ability to consistently throw hard, as Smoltz pointed out. Ohtani's four-seam fastball topped out at over 101 mph this season, while his cutter and split-finger fastball topped out around 95 mph, per Baseball Savant.

"Like everybody else, I'm super disappointed for him," Smoltz said. "I just don't know how the body can withstand that kind of torque that he has, not to mention playing every day [as a hitter], the guy's a freak. I know the discussion is going to be around what he is capable of doing and what should he do, but I hate it for him because he's the best player in the universe."

Making things worse for Ohtani is that he will be a free agent this offseason and was in line for a contract projected for around half a billion dollars. Though Ohtani is proving once again that he can still hit at a high level while dealing with the injury — "amazing," Smoltz noted — a large portion of those $500 million estimates included his value as a pitcher, which he might not provide for at least the first year of his next deal.

"Certainly that's going to impact his contract moving forward," Smoltz said. "I think he's going to try everything he can to get back on the mound. I would be very, very creative in my negotiations and have two contracts ready for him — one for [hitting], one for pitching with some incentives. I would assume he's got to get [the UCL] repaired. I wouldn't think that he could go without getting it repaired. That's another year of not throwing. But time will tell on that. … I just don't think it bodes well for longevity at all."

One option for Ohtani to increase that longevity when he does return from his expected Tommy John surgery is to become a high-leverage reliever. Few know more about that transition than Smoltz himself, who had been a longtime elite starter before asserting himself as one of baseball's most dominant closers in the early 2000s upon his return from Tommy John surgery. But Ohtani's presence in the lineup complicates working in relief.

"I think that [moving to the bullpen] is a possibility," Smoltz said. "It would be very quirky [to figure out] when he would come up to the plate, and when he would have to get ready. You know, batting in the eighth or in the ninth, it would be hard to go down to the bullpen or throw [in the batting cage]. … In a perfect world, the way he's been doing it would be great. But that's going to be a while now.

"I hope he comes back, hope he still tries to pitch and hope he gets himself in a position to do both again because he's been doing it at such a high level."

So do I. Smoltz brought up a very good point, and it's one we have already seen the one time Ohtani has been in a closer role since coming to the majors. He was Japan's closer in the 2023 World Baseball Classic title game against Team USA, and it led to one of the most memorable at-bats in recent baseball history, as he struck out Angels teammate and Team USA captain Mike Trout to seal the win. But even then, Ohtani had to hustle back from the bullpen to take a late at-bat in the game just before taking the mound.

Whatever happens with his injury, it's going to be interesting to watch unfold and only add more intrigue to a pivotal offseason for the best baseball player on the planet.

Ben Verlander is an MLB Analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the "Flippin' Bats" podcast. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. He spent five years in the Tigers organization. Follow him on Twitter @BenVerlander.

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