Oct 2, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) hits a two run single off of St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (not pictured) during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Reports suggest the Pirates could be willing to move on from the face of their franchise. Should the Phillies call? Would it make sense?
With Hot-Stove season gearing up, Phillies fans should expect some activity from their club this offseason. Rumors are some of the most exhausting, yet entertaining things to digest. This offseason will certainly take that course for all Phillies fans.
When your manager calls out a horrid bullpen and dreadful lineup, it’s easy to connect dots to players and rumors. So let’s do just that – with a big name, but potentially reasonably priced veteran.
Reports were coming out of Pittsburgh following the season that the Pirates might be ready to move on from former MVP, and longtime face of the Franchise, Andrew McCutchen.
With the Phils desire for a veteran leader in the lineup, should the club give the Pirates a call?
Absolutely.
Here’s why the Phillies should trade for Andrew McCutchen:
Oct 2, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) is unable to field an RBI single hit by St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina (not pictured) during the third inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
After his worst season in the majors, McCutchen has definitely lost value.
Andrew McCutchen was the model of consistency prior to 2016. From 2010-2015, McCutchen averaged a 6.4 WAR, made five all-star games, averaged 23 homers and 84 RBI with a .299/.391.499 (.890 OPS), adding in a National League MVP in 2014.
2016, however, was not a typical-McCutchen season. Posting a career and major league worst (among qualified players) -0.7 WAR, slashing .256/.336/.430 for a career worst .766 OPS.
Additionally, McCutchen was the worst defensive center fielder in baseball last season (-2.6 dWAR). Though, he’s never been an elite defender from center (seasonal high was 1.0 dWAR in 2013) throughout his career.
While this sounds scary, McCutchen is only 30 years old. And the Phillies have centerfield locked down with Odubel Herrera. Any trade of McCutchen would require a position change on his part, which is probably the better move for the player going forward anyway.
Nov 7, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Austin Meadows during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
There’s a top prospect knocking on the door in Pittsburgh, and he’s coming for Andrew McCutchen’s spot.
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Austin Meadows is a 21-year-old center fielder, and is the ninth-rated prospect in baseball.
Here’s a snippet of Meadows’ scouting report from MLB.com:
“Especially considering last year was really his first full season, Meadows has a very advanced approach at the plate, particularly with plate discipline. He has a smooth left-handed swing geared mostly to hit. Meadows is still figuring himself out as a hitter, and the expectation is that the power many have projected will come from his big, strong frame as he puts that puzzle together. He made strides in center field and could be an above-average defender there. Even though Meadows doesn’t have the strongest arm, it’s accurate and plays well. He should get time in the outfield corners as well. Meadows runs well and will cover plenty of ground from any outfield spot.”
Meadows could use more time, but not much more. His expected time of arrival is 2017, while this could end up meaning nothing – Meadows is starting the year in AAA – and it certainly puts a timer on McCutchen’s days in Pittsburgh.
Sep 13, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) and right fielder Adam Frazier (26) and right fielder Gregory Polanco (25) celebrate a victory against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Pittsburgh Pirates won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
While McCutchen may not be the same player, his contract certainly plays a huge role in any trade discussions.
If the Pirates are set on trading McCutchen, his contract provides tremendous value. Only due $14 million in 2017, McCutchen’s contract also has a team-option for 2018, with just a $1 million buyout.
Anyway you look at it, it’s a bargain of a contract for what McCutchen could bring to any club making the deal. With the Phillies financial flexibility, it sets them up perfectly to take that chance.
However, even following a very poor season, McCutchen has the track record and the contract that would require something worth while for the Pirates to consider.
They’re not just going to give away Andrew McCutchen.
Jul 10, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; World pitcher Ricardo Pinto throws in the 7th inning during the All Star Game futures baseball game at PetCo Park. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
So even though the Pirates aren’t just handing McCutchen out to whomever calls, the Phillies do have some leeway into the makings of a deal with a loaded farm system.
The Phillies have many 40-man roster decisions to make, and not everyone is going to make it. So before it becomes too late and the Phillies potentially lose a prospect(s) to the rule-5 draft, it would make sense to move a few for proven talent.
Who exactly is beyond me – but expect prospects in the 15-30 range – and no one to get too worried about, to get such a deal done.
Not every player is going to be a Phillie someday. It’s better to get some value out of an investment instead of letting go of it without a return. Especially some who wouldn’t be harming their future plans (Crawford, Williams, Alfaro, Moniak, etc.).
Sep 3, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Aaron Altherr (23) in the dugout after scoring a run during the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
While nothing is set in stone for the Phillies future, the team has the room and the resources to move players already at the major league level.
I’m not a huge proponent of buying players. But sometimes, it’s okay.
This would only be the case for the Phillies if the club strikes out on some prospects.
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So with that option in their back pocket, it’s safe to assume the Phils would be willing to part with some major league talent as well as a prospect or two.
Don’t think big names. Think soon-to-be borderline guys; like Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Alec Asher, Cody Asche, etc.
Oct 26, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies president Andy MacPhail introduces new general manager Matt Klentak during a press conference at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
All the pieces are in place for a fair deal.
A minor key in any such deal is the history between the two teams.
The Phillies and Pirates have completed two separate since Matt Klentak has become GM of the Phils. Trades helping both teams in some respect.
The Pirates practically handed starting pitcher Charlie Morton to the Phillies for a low-ball prospect and the contract relief the Phils provided.
The Phillies, in a separate deal, practically handed the Pirates a potential quality starter (and I use that term very loosely here because he was released by PIT) in former first round pick and top prospect, Jesse Biddle. In exchange for reliever Yoervis Medina, who never appeared in a game for the Phillies, and was released in July.
Still, the teams have some history, and have shown a willingness to help each other out.
Sep 27, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) hits a two run single against the Chicago Cubs during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Cubs won 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
McCutchen could still bring a lot to the table for the Phillies
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As mentioned, McCutchen is coming off his worst professional season. But he did pick things up towards the end of the year. Over his final 56 games of 2016, McCutchen slashed .284/.381/.471 (.852 OPS), with nine homers and 36 RBI in 244 plate appearances. Much more on par with his career numbers.
Yes, McCutchen’s value has diminished. His flaws defensively were never more evident than this past year – not to mention his 138 strikeout average over the last two seasons.
However, McCutchens flaws are something the Phillies can live with. This is about acquiring a proven veteran leader who can add to a young lineup while not holding anyone up or mortgaging the future.
He wouldn’t be playing center anymore, so there’s potential for a defensive value increase. And even after a down year at the plate, McCutchen can turn it around. Again, he’s just 30.
We can’t forget that the club can get out of his contract after one season. That’s a huge bonus.
McCutchen checks all the boxes.
May 11, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) during batting practice before the game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Here’s my best shot at a fair deal between the Phillies and Pirates
I mentioned earlier, and in my selling high on Cesar Hernandez piece, that something has to give at some point with the Phillies and their abundance of money, unproven big leaguers, and top-notch prospects in time.
Like I said, not every player that comes through the system is going to be playing in Philadelphia their entire career. Taking a flyer on a former MVP like McCutchen – who’s still in his prime – for only a year (or two) is something the club needs to consider before letting their own players (with trade value) become nothing more than organizational filler.
With a lack of middle-infield depth (Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer combined for a 2.7 WAR in 2016), the Pirates could feel comfortable receiving a player like Cesar Hernandez (3.3 WAR) as the center of a package.
A deal I had in mind was this:
The Pirates send Andrew McCutchen to the Phillies for 2B Cesar Hernandez, OF Aaron Altherr, and (AA starting pitcher) Ricardo Pinto.
Too much? Not enough? Delusional? Spot on?
Rumors are bound to come about, stay tuned to TBOH for more!
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