Carson Kelly

St. Louis Cardinals: Carson Kelly or Eric Fryer in 2017?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

The St. Louis Cardinals have been rumored to have floated their young catcher in rumored deals and have also been rumored to have kicked the tires of a former backup catcher.

The St. Louis Cardinals, despite how it appeared to fans, were apparently very busy during the Winter Meetings. We have now learned that GM Mozeliak spoke with many, many teams and kicked many, many tires. We also know Mo is perfectly tight-lipped as is evidenced by the Dexter Fowler deal that was completed on Wednesday but announced on Friday.

Enter then the discussions (some would say rumors) that the St. Louis Cardinals have been asked for and about Carson Kelly in potential deals. While this doesn’t necessarily surprise me- Kelly is a young up-and-comer in the organization- I worried initially since Yadier Molina definitely needs a backup catcher.

Serving as the backup catcher might not be the best option for Kelly’s advancement and athletic progression. This in mind, shopping Kelly might make sense. Sending Kelly to another team where he could be used immediately might make good sense if the return to the Cardinals is good enough. Right?

Okay then, let’s assume that sending Kelly away is the best option (we will look at this shortly), then what? Who should the St. Louis Cardinals use to serve as backup to Yadi?

Eric Fryer played for the Cardinals- if only briefly- in 2016 and I, for one, was very disappointed in the decision to release him in the midst of the campaign. I liked Fryer and found him to be a great backup who provided decent defensive threat from behind the plate and certainly was no push-over at the plate.

Let’s take a look at these two and see if a Kelly departure and a Fryer reunion would make sense. First up, let’s examine the offensive production of each. A note: we will not necessarily be comparing apples to apples here since Kelly has such limited MLB experience. In that regard, we will be comparing Kelly’s minor league stats to Fryer’s major league stats so take the comparison with a grain of salt.

First up, Kelly’s offensive numbers:

Year	Age	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	17	Rk	56	213	24	48	10	0	9	25	0	0	10	33	.225	.263	.399	.662
2013	18	A-,A	113	417	53	107	22	1	6	45	1	0	33	56	.257	.322	.357	.679
2014	19	A	98	363	41	90	17	4	6	49	1	0	37	54	.248	.326	.366	.692
2015	20	A+	108	389	30	85	18	1	8	51	0	0	22	64	.219	.263	.332	.594
2016	21	AA,AAA	96	329	43	95	17	0	6	32	0	1	25	63	.289	.343	.395	.738
2016	21	NL	10	13	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	.154	.214	.231	.445
1 Yr	10	13	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	.154	.214	.231	.445
162 Game Avg.	162	211	16	32	16	0	0	16	0	0	0	32	.154	.214	.231	.445

Next up, Fryer’s offensive numbers:

Year	Age	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	25	PIT	10	26	5	7	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7	.269	.345	.269	.614
2012	26	PIT	6	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.250	.400	.250	.650
2013	27	MIN	6	13	2	5	1	0	1	4	0	0	3	3	.385	.500	.692	1.192
2014	28	MIN	28	75	11	16	4	0	1	5	1	0	5	15	.213	.272	.307	.578
2015	29	MIN	15	22	2	5	2	0	0	2	0	0	5	11	.227	.370	.318	.689
2016	30	TOT	60	116	19	31	4	1	0	13	0	3	13	25	.267	.336	.319	.655
2016	30	STL	24	38	7	14	2	0	0	5	0	1	3	7	.368	.415	.421	.836
2016	30	PIT	36	78	12	17	2	1	0	8	0	2	10	18	.218	.300	.269	.569
6 Yrs	125	256	39	65	11	1	2	24	2	4	30	62	.254	.332	.328	.660
162 Game Avg.	162	332	51	84	14	1	3	31	3	5	39	80	.254	.332	.328	.660

If we pull the 2016 data off both charts, then we are comparing Kelly’s slash line of .289/.343/.395 (AAA) to Fryer’s slash line of .267/.336/.319 (MLB). In this regard, Kelly presents better. At this point, I would beg that Mozeliak NOT shop Kelly even though I am a huge Fryer fan.

Let’s look at defense and see if these sentiments from me hold true. First up, Kelly’s defensive numbers:

Year	Age	Tm	Lev		G	GS	Inn	Ch	PO	A	E	Fld%	RF/9	RF/G	PB	WP	SB	CS	CS%
2012	17	Johnson City	Rk	3B	48	47	412.0	100	23	65	12	.880	1.92	1.83
2013	18	2 Teams	A–A	3B	96	95	832.2	219	66	138	15	.932	2.20	2.13
2013	18	State College	A-	3B	65	65	578.2	156	47	100	9	.942	2.29	2.26
2013	18	Peoria	A	3B	31	30	254.0	63	19	38	6	.905	2.02	1.84
2014	19	Peoria	A	C	79	79	682.0	706	624	73	9	.987	9.20	8.82	13		75	37	33%
2015	20	Palm Beach	A+	C	104		920.1	821	751	67	3	.996	8.00	7.87	6
2016	21	2 Teams	AA-AAA	C	92	90	784.2	777	717	57	3	.996	8.88	8.41	6		60	27	31%
2016	21	Springfield	AA	C	60	58	515.1	500	454	43	3	.994	8.68	8.28	5		42	21	33%
2016	21	Memphis	AAA	C	32	32	269.1	277	263	14	0	1.000	9.26	8.66	1		18	6	25%
2016	21	STL	MLB	C	10	2	36.0	32	30	2	0	1.000	8.00	3.20	0		0	0
Minors (2 seasons)	Minors	3B	144	142	1244.2	319	89	203	27	.915	2.11	2.03
Minors (3 seasons)	Minors	C	275	169	2387.0	2304	2092	197	15	.993	8.63	8.32	25		135	64	32%
All Levels (2 Seasons)		3B	144	142	1244.2	319	89	203	27	.915	2.11	2.03
All Levels (3 Seasons)		C	285	171	2423.0	2336	2122	199	15	.994	8.62	8.14	25		135	64	32%

And here’s a look at Fryer’s defensive numbers:

Year	Age	Pos	G	GS	Inn	Ch	PO	A	E	Fld%	RF/9	RF/G	PB	WP	SB	CS	CS%
2011	25	C	8	7	61.2	48	42	5	1	.979	6.86	5.88	0	2	7	3	30%
2012	26	OF	2	0	1.2	0	0	0	0		0.00	0.00
2012	26	LF	1	0	1.0	0	0	0	0		0.00	0.00
2012	26	RF	1	0	0.2	0	0	0	0		0.00	0.00
2013	27	C	5	4	40.0	30	28	2	0	1.000	6.75	6.00	0	1	3	2	40%
2013	27	DH	1	0
2014	28	C	24	22	190.1	159	152	6	1	.994	7.47	6.58	1	8	16	1	6%
2014	28	DH	3	0
2015	29	C	15	7	69.0	53	52	0	1	.981	6.78	3.47	0	5	2	0	0%
2016	30	C	54	31	306.1	296	274	19	3	.990	8.61	5.43	3	15	21	7	25%
2016	30	C	22	8	85.1	72	63	9	0	1.000	7.59	3.27	0	1	2	4	67%
2016	30	C	32	23	221.0	224	211	10	3	.987	9.00	6.91	3	14	19	3	14%
	5 Seasons	C	106	71	667.1	586	548	32	6	.990	7.82	5.47	4	31	49	13	21%
	2 Seasons	DH	4	0
	1 Season	OF	2	0	1.2	0	0	0	0		0.00	0.00
	1 Season	RF	1	0	0.2	0	0	0	0		0.00	0.00
	1 Season	LF	1	0	1.0	0	0	0	0		0.00	0.00
	6 Seasons	TOT	108	71	669.0	586	548	32	6	.990	7.80	5.37	4	31	49	13	21%

Okay, I see now that Kelly is a better catcher too. In his career, Kelly owns a thirty-two percent caught-stealing rate where Fryer owns only a twenty-one percent. What about Yadi, you ask? Molina owns a forty-two percent caught-stealing rate. If we go off this stat alone, then Kelly is the keeper.

Speaking of Molina, 2017 is his final year on his current contract with 2018 being a team option worth $15M and a $2M buyout. This means that the St. Louis Cardinals are seeking a backup for 2017 and either a backup beyond or for someone to assume the duties should Molina (God forbid) go elsewhere.

In this regard, which of the two- Kelly or Fryer- will serve as the better backup? The data seems to suggest that Kelly is indeed the rising catcher of tomorrow but is a backup role the best option for him? Is Fryer a better option to backup Yadi?

Here’s what I would LOVE to see happen: I would love to see Mozeliak sign Fryer to serve as backup and allow Kelly to play every day in Memphis for the first half of the season at least. It isn’t like we haven’t cut Fryer mid-season once before…

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If Mozeliak doesn’t sign Fryer, I don’t think we are out anything. I see the value, equally, of having Kelly serve the year under Molina’s wing directly. I believe in Mozeliak and know that he will do the right thing for Kelly and that is what should matter for the future of the Cardinals.