Dexter Fowler

St. Louis Cardinals Rumors: Dexter Fowler or Carlos Gomez?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The St. Louis Cardinals have been rumored to have interest in free agent Dexter Fowler and/or Carlos Gomez but which is the best option?

The St. Louis Cardinals made it well-known going into the offseason that they were going to seek a new center fielder and move Randal Grichuk to left field to replace the exiting Matt Holliday. This started a great deal of rumors and has much of the Twittersphere scratching heads and suggesting names.

Two center field names have essentially bubbled to the top: Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gomez. These two are by no means the only names circulating for the St. Louis Cardinals outfield in 2017 but let us entertain the thought that they are the only ones and compare them.

Let us begin with the flashy pick of these two– Fowler. Fowler is a great center fielder and made a real name for himself in the postseason of 2016. But wait… prior to 2016, the Chicago Cubs were prepared to let Fowler walk away and it wasn’t until the last weeks prior to 2016 that he inked a deal to “return” to the Cubs. I’m sure both parties are pleased with this decision now.

Fowler, a fourteenth-round pick by the Rockies of the 2004 draft, turned thirty at the start of the 2016 season. In 2015 he slashed .250/.346/.411 and didn’t appear to play into the Cubs’ plans for world domination. Brought back nevertheless, Fowler made 2016 his mistress and slashed .276/.393/.447. Here’s a look at his career offensive numbers:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	22	COL	NL	13	26	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	.154	.185	.154	.339
2009	23	COL	NL	135	433	73	115	29	10	4	34	27	10	67	116	.266	.363	.406	.770
2010	24	COL	NL	132	439	73	114	20	14	6	36	13	7	57	104	.260	.347	.410	.757
2011	25	COL	NL	125	481	84	128	35	15	5	45	12	9	68	130	.266	.363	.432	.796
2012	26	COL	NL	143	454	72	136	18	11	13	53	12	5	68	128	.300	.389	.474	.863
2013	27	COL	NL	119	415	71	109	18	3	12	42	19	9	65	105	.263	.369	.407	.776
2014	28	HOU	AL	116	434	61	120	21	4	8	35	11	4	66	108	.276	.375	.399	.774
2015	29	CHC	NL	156	596	102	149	29	8	17	46	20	7	84	154	.250	.346	.411	.757
2016 ★	30	CHC	NL	125	456	84	126	25	7	13	48	13	4	79	124	.276	.393	.447	.840
9 Yrs	1064	3734	623	1001	195	72	78	339	127	56	554	974	.268	.366	.422	.788

COL (6 yrs)	667	2248	376	606	120	53	40	210	83	41	325	588	.270	.365	.423	.788
CHC (2 yrs)	281	1052	186	275	54	15	30	94	33	11	163	278	.261	.367	.427	.794
HOU (1 yr)	116	434	61	120	21	4	8	35	11	4	66	108	.276	.375	.399	.774

While not a massive power threat at a career .422 SLG, Fowler is able to generate offense with his fair number of doubles and home runs. Of sure interest to the St. Louis Cardinals is his stolen base numbers. 2016 showed that he can run on the bags and this is needed on what has been a slowed-foot Cardinals team.

Changing gears, Carlos Gomez could be the reason the St. Louis Cardinals do not chase down Fowler. Gomez has had his share of down-to-up luck similar to Fowler. To this end, Gomez, after 5+ seasons with Milwaukee, was shipped off to Houston. He was shipped away as the Brewers felt he was fading. Gomez lived up to this idea and found himself struggling in Houston.

Eventually released, Gomez rolled around in obscurity for a brief period. During this time, the St. Louis Cardinals were rumored to have kicked the tires on him. This was during the 2016 campaign. The Cardinals decided against a Gomez pick at that time and the Rangers ultimately snatched him. Gomez rode to the postseason with the Rangers and even found his playing ways again.

Here’s a look at Gomez, signed as an amateur free agent first in 2002, and his up-and-down career:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	21	NYM	NL	58	125	14	29	3	0	2	12	12	3	8	27	.232	.288	.304	.592
2008	22	MIN	AL	153	577	79	149	24	7	7	59	33	11	25	142	.258	.296	.360	.657
2009	23	MIN	AL	137	315	51	72	15	5	3	28	14	7	22	72	.229	.287	.337	.623
2010	24	MIL	NL	97	291	38	72	11	3	5	24	18	3	17	72	.247	.298	.357	.655
2011	25	MIL	NL	94	231	37	52	11	3	8	24	16	2	15	64	.225	.276	.403	.679
2012	26	MIL	NL	137	415	72	108	19	4	19	51	37	6	20	98	.260	.305	.463	.768
2013 ★	27	MIL	NL	147	536	80	152	27	10	24	73	40	7	37	146	.284	.338	.506	.843
2014 ★	28	MIL	NL	148	574	95	163	34	4	23	73	34	12	47	141	.284	.356	.477	.833
2015	29	TOT	MLB	115	435	61	111	29	1	12	56	17	9	31	101	.255	.314	.409	.724
2015	29	MIL	NL	74	286	42	75	20	1	8	43	7	6	23	70	.262	.328	.423	.751
2015	29	HOU	AL	41	149	19	36	9	0	4	13	10	3	8	31	.242	.288	.383	.670
2016	30	TOT	AL	118	411	45	95	22	1	13	53	18	5	34	136	.231	.298	.384	.682
2016	30	HOU	AL	85	295	27	62	16	1	5	29	13	2	21	100	.210	.272	.322	.594
2016	30	TEX	AL	33	116	18	33	6	0	8	24	5	3	13	36	.284	.362	.543	.905
10 Yrs	1204	3910	572	1003	195	38	116	453	239	65	256	999	.257	.312	.415	.727

MIL (6 yrs)	697	2333	364	622	122	25	87	288	152	36	159	591	.267	.325	.452	.777
MIN (2 yrs)	290	892	130	221	39	12	10	87	47	18	47	214	.248	.293	.352	.645
HOU (2 yrs)	126	444	46	98	25	1	9	42	23	5	29	131	.221	.277	.342	.619
TEX (1 yr)	33	116	18	33	6	0	8	24	5	3	13	36	.284	.362	.543	.905
NYM (1 yr)	58	125	14	29	3	0	2	12	12	3	8	27	.232	.288	.304	.592

Gomez, like Fowler, will be thirty-one in the 2017 season. Gomez, unlike Fowler, carries slightly weaker numbers but one year additional experience.

Defensively, Fowler carried a 1.0 UZR in 2016 at center field. Gomez, in fashion with his weaker offense, carried a 0.5 UZR in 2016 at center field. For reference, Grichuk carried a -0.9 UZR so either would be a marked improvement.

Before moving forward, let us compare the postseason statistics from this past year for Fowler and Gomez. Fowler has appeared in postseason play in three seasons (once with Colorado and twice with Chicago) and slashed .133/.235/.200 in the 2016 NLDS, .333/.333/.556 in the 2016 NLCS, and .233/.258/.467 in the 2016 World Series.

Gomez has appeared in four postseasons (one with Minnesota, one with Milwaukee, one with Houston, and one with Texas). In 2016, in the limited exposure with Texas, he batted .154/.214/.154 in the ALDS.

So what makes them different and why should the St. Louis Cardinals care about one over the other? Money makes the world go around and it completely differentiates these two (aside from the statistics above). Gomez is a free agent free to any team. Fowler is a free agent with a qualifying offer attached.

In addition, Gomez was paid $9M in 2016 and is likely seeking a 2-3 year deal. Fowler was paid $8M in 2016 and, having just turned down the $17M qualifying offer, is likely seeking a 3-5 year deal with a big purse. Fowler will likely need $18M+ to land while Gomez could be had for $10-12M.

Price alone should not be a deciding factor. To this point, picking up Fowler would mean forfeiting a draft pick. I’m just not sure the St. Louis Cardinals would take this risk/loss with the penalties for the Astros hacking scandal yet to come. It is assumed that the loss of picks after 2017 could be a likely penalty so I’m not sure the Cardinals would be wise to forfeit picks this season.

Having said that, I’m not sure that Gomez is the best option either. I personally like him and would really like to see him wearing the birds on the bat but there are other names out in the market too. If I were to pick between these two then I would definitely suggest Gomez over Fowler for fewer years and then take a risk in the coming year’s free agent markets.

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What do you think? Until the Cardinals land a new center fielder- if at all- I will spend the next couple of posts examining and comparing the available names against Fowler who we can assume is the hottest name in this season’s free agent class for center fielders. Check back and stay with us as we drive toward a selection!