Major League Baseball

Stealing or slugging? Teams take varied approaches with MLB’s new rules

Updated Apr. 14, 2023 6:49 p.m. ET

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Rowan Kavner

MLB Writer

Two games into the 2023 season, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts made his team’s intentions on the basepaths clear. 

While some clubs might choose to take advantage of the larger bases and new pickoff limits this season, Roberts did not envision the Dodgers upending their usual strategy. The reigning top offense in baseball was built to slug, not to run.

"I still think it boils down to personnel," Roberts said. "I’m still not in the business of running into outs, regardless of how big the bases are. We just don’t have the burners, the prototype base stealers. So I’m not gonna run just to run."

You know what they say about the best-laid plans? Hours after Roberts’ comments, Dodgers outfielder David Peralta was caught stealing at second base. Miguel Vargas followed with a double and was left stranded at second base in a scoreless frame. The Dodgers eventually lost by a run to the Diamondbacks. 

Still, Roberts’ prediction has played out. That attempt by Peralta was one of just six for the Dodgers through their first 12 games. They rank first in walks, fifth in on-base percentage and 28th in stolen bases. They don’t have a single player who ranks in baseball’s top 75 in sprint speed, and they’re not risking outs with a team that’s not particularly fleet of foot. 

Even with new rules encouraging more action, it still boils down to roster construction. 

Giants manager Gabe Kapler said last month that he expected his team to be more aggressive on the basepaths this year, in line with what he anticipated to be a league-wide jump in stolen bases. This spring, his team led the majors in steals.  

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But a closer look paints a different picture. Fifteen of their 43 steals in spring training came from Bryce Johnson, who has started three games this year, and Brett Auerbach, who is in Double-A. No one else on their roster stole more than two bases during Cactus League play. 

So, while Kapler was correct that stolen bases around the game would increase, the Giants have not yet added much to that ascension. The veteran roster is not particularly assembled to take advantage of the new rules — Thairo Estrada is the only Giants player who ranks in the top 100 in sprint speed this season — so they haven’t used that method to threaten opponents. In fact, they’re representing three-true-outcome baseball even more than last year. 

Last year, no team averaged more than 9.5 strikeouts per game. The Giants are currently at 11.6. They lead the majors in strikeouts while ranking third in homers, 10th in walks and 16th in stolen bases. They stole two fewer bases through their first 11 games this year than they did through 11 games last year. 

But the teams who can really run? They’re taking advantage. 

Through the first 10 days of the season, seven teams averaged more than one stolen base per game while 10 teams averaged more than one steal attempt per game. Those numbers are double what they were through the same timeframe last year. League-wide, steals and steal attempts are up by nearly a half-steal per game. 

The National League West epitomizes the diversity in approach seen throughout the league as teams adjust to the new rules. The clubs that lack elite speed aren’t trying to steal for the sake of it, but the door is open for young teams such as Arizona to change outcomes with their speed and athleticism. 

By the end of April last year, only one team had more than 16 steals. This year, the Guardians, Orioles and Diamondbacks already surpassed that total through their first 11 games. Arizona is averaging 1.4 stolen bases on 1.5 attempts per game. Compare that to last year’s stolen base leaders, the Rangers, who stole 0.79 steals per game on 1.04 attempts per game. 

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said plate approach is still more important to him than having a player atop the lineup who’s capable of stealing second, getting bunted to third and scoring on a sacrifice fly the way a leadoff guy might in the 1980s. But there’s no denying the role that speed has played in their success. 

In a 2-1 win to split its opening series at Dodger Stadium, Arizona’s first run scored after Corbin Carroll, the second-fastest player in baseball by sprint speed (behind Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.), stole second and third base. Later, the winning run scored on a bunt single after Carroll took another bag. 

The following weekend, the D-backs took the final three games in a home series against the Dodgers to jump into first place, using the new rules to their advantage. They tallied 17 more singles and eight more stolen bases than the Dodgers over those three games. 

"It felt like it was the first time I’ve ever played the Dodgers where it felt like they could feel the pressure," Arizona third baseman Josh Rojas told reporters afterward. 

In games that the Diamondbacks have stolen at least one base, they’re 5-0. In games they haven’t, they’re 2-5. 

"Not every team’s going to have that guy, but there are definitely going to be teams that are going to run," Dodgers pitcher Andre Jackson said. "The D-backs are going to run. The fast guys are always going to go, and now they’re more incentivized to run. I think it’s good for baseball."

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner. 

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Rowan Kavner