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The 2016 season was a difficult campaign for the Tampa Bay Rays. How can they potentially right the ship for the 2017 season?
Perhaps more than any other team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays have to operate within their system. They had become known for their ability to develop pitching, and a focus on speed and defense before the rest of the league caught up to those plans. Likewise, they had a knack for finding players on the free agent scrap heap that would step in and play an important part of their success.
Those days may have passed. The former braintrust is gone, heading off to the Dodgers and the Cubs. As such, there was a new direction in Tampa Bay, as the front office eschewed that typical focus on speed and defense to load up on power. The results were not pretty, as the Rays finished 25 games out in the American League East.
While the Rays will have their typical budgetary constraints again next season, they have plenty of hope for the 2017 campaign. In fact, the Rays president of baseball operations, Matt Silverman, stated that they are “hell bent” on competing next year. Considering their performance this past year, that would be quite the accomplishment.
How could the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves back into the postseason hunt next year? Even better, should they focus on making the playoffs next year, or take a more long term approach? Let’s take a look at five places the Rays should take a look at in the offseason.
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Find a long term solution at catcher
The history of the catcher position for the Tampa Bay Rays is a bleak one. Over their 18 years of existence, only Dioner Navarro made the All Star Game as a catcher in Tampa Bay. John Jaso is the only catcher in team history with a wRC+ over 100 with more than 100 plate appearances in a Rays uniform. Jose Molina was a starter for three seasons, mainly because of his defensive acumen. Still, the idea that Jose Molina could be the primary catcher for any team in baseball shows what standards the Rays have at that position.
That run of futility continued last season. The Rays gave four different players over 90 plate appearances at catcher, and none of them showed enough to give the team hope that they will be a long term solution. Meanwhile, in the minors, Nick Ciuffo is the Rays top catching prospect, but he ranks only 25th among the Rays top 30 prospects and has a few holes in his game offensively.
Needless to say, the Rays quest for a catcher who can actually perform both at the plate, and behind it, is ongoing. The players in their system currently just do not appear to be a solution. The best option may be to find a young catcher in need of a change of scenery and give him a chance. A player like Mike Zunino or Jesus Montero may be worth a look as a possible buy low option.
Even if the Rays were not limited in free agency by their budgetary woes, that market is thin. Players like Jason Castro, who may have been an option, will likely get far more than the Rays would be comfortable spending. A trade might be the only solution, unless one of their prospects blossoms next year.
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Trade Jake Odorizzi
The Tampa Bay Rays, for all of their struggles last year, have a solid amount of depth in the starting rotation. Chris Archer, for as much as he struggled last year, is still just a year away from looking like the next Rays ace. Alex Cobb will have a full offseason to get himself back into baseball shape, and should slot in as the second starter next year. Blake Snell showed a great deal of promise, and is ready to take on a spot in the rotation.
Jake Odorizzi may well have been the Rays best starter last season, but he may also be the most expendable. With a weak free agency class at starting pitcher as well, a pitcher like Odorizzi, who is beginning to develop into a nice middle of the rotation piece, could fetch a solid return. Even with Odorizzi out of the picture, the Rays rotation would still be in good shape moving forward.
While the bigger names, such as a Chris Sale or a Jose Quintana, will be at the forefront of any trade watch, Odorizzi may be a lot easier to trade. At 27 years old and with four years of team control, he may not seem to be the type of player that the Rays would willingly part with, but there are only a finite number of arms available. If a team is looking to shore up their rotation for a run in the next year or two, Odorizzi may be that perfect middle of the rotation piece.
Chances are, a pitcher like Jake Odorizzi would not tip the scales for the casual fan, but the Rays could get a few needed pieces in return. In doing so, they could look to rebuild that pipeline of prospects that had been the lifeblood of the franchise.
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Rebuild the farm system
Gone are the days when the Tampa Bay Rays had one of the best farm systems in the game. Seemingly every year, another top flight starting pitcher would emerge from the minors, allowing the Rays to trade their more expensive arms and continually replenish the ranks. Now, the Rays find themselves with a farm system ranked, at best, in the lower half of the league.
That is not to say that the cupboard is bare. Willy Adames, Brent Honeywell, and Jake Bauers all look like they could be key parts of the Rays future. However, beyond those three, there are a great deal of question marks. Jacob Faria profiles as a back of the rotation starter at best. Lucius Fox was injured after coming over in the Matt Moore trade. Taylor Guerrieri has already had Tommy John surgery and a drug suspension, setting his development back.
It is possible that some of these other players become viable Major League players, but that top end talent just is not there. For a team like the Rays, who need to have top prospects coming up every year in order to remain competitive, that lack of talent behind Adames and Honeywell has to be concerning.
Trading Odorizzi could help bring in some of those pieces to allow the Rays to rebuild on the fly. Other pieces, such as Logan Forsythe or Nick Franklin, could bring back a decent prospect or two while freeing up a spot on the roster for another player.
The Rays need to have that stellar farm system to be a perennial playoff contender. Ranking in the lower half of the league, at best, is not going to be enough.
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Get better at getting on base
In a way, this means that the Rays would need to return to their previous approach when it came to offense. While one cannot argue that they increased their home run output, that power does not matter when no one is on base. And, more often than not, that was the case.
Last season, the Rays had two players who had more than 200 plate appearances and an on base percentage over .340. Both of those players, Brandon Guyer and Steve Pearce, finished the season on other teams. Right now, the Rays on base percentage leader would be Logan Forsythe, who is hitting in the leadoff spot almost by default.
There is hope that an internal option could take on that role and help to jumpstart the offense. Kevin Kiermaier has the speed that a stereotypical leadoff hitter would possess, and he did have a .331 on base percentage last year. Kiermaier has also cut down on his strikeouts while improving his walk rate, making it possible that he and Forsythe could be the top two hitters in the lineup for 2017.
While that would be a help at the top of the lineup, the same could not be said throughout the rest of the lineup. Even though most of the Rays lineup appears to be set heading into the 2017 season, adding another outfielder with the ability to work a count and get on base regularly could be a tremendous boost to the Rays chances. Nori Aoki, if his mutual option is declined in Seattle, may actually be the ideal player to fill that sort of role on the Rays.
Far too often last season, the Rays were dependent upon the home run for their offense. By having a couple of players that can get on base and cause havoc on the basepaths, the offense could reach its potential.
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Rebuild the bullpen
If the Tampa Bay Rays are going to make a splash in free agency this year, it may be in the bullpen. While Alex Colome turned into an All Star closer, and Erasmo Ramirez was a solid piece in relief, the rest of the bullpen needs a good deal of work.
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Fortunately for the Rays and their budget, the biggest areas of need may be in middle relief. While there may be a dearth of solid arms for the starting rotation, relief pitching is quite deep. Adding a couple of arms, such as a Burke Badenhop or a similar middle reliever, could help bring the Rays back to respectability.
The biggest key to the bullpen plans may how former closer Brad Boxberger bounces back. After an injury riddled 2016 campaign, a healthy Boxberger would give the Rays the dominant setup man they lacked last year. Meanwhile, Ramirez could go into that fireman role he performed well in during the season.
If Boxberger is healthy, and Colome can continue to perform at the same level next year, the Rays will only have to be concerned with the seventh inning and the middle relievers. Ryne Stanek may be ready to take one of those roles next season, but getting a couple of solid relievers could be the difference in the Rays getting back into contention.
Unlike most teams in their situation, the Tampa Bay Rays may not need to make a lot of moves to compete. Instead, their hopes may be tied to internal improvement and finding those bargain free agents to fill out the bullpen.
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