Major League Baseball

The curious case of Cody Bellinger: Which version of the slugger will a team get?

Published Dec. 20, 2023 6:08 p.m. ET

Cody Bellinger always looks kind of confused.

There is a childish aloofness, a sort of juvenile cluelessness perpetually plastered across Bellinger's face. Whenever a TV camera cuts to him in the dugout, the lanky center fielder often looks like he just woke up from a nap on a transatlantic flight. Red-eye Cody, reporting for duty.

And throughout his career, Bellinger's dazed disposition has made him the subject of many, many jokes. Some of them funny, some of them not, all of them logical. But in 2023, the man who moves through life beyond bewildered like he's lost in a new neighborhood turned the tables on everybody else.

Because now, the entire baseball world is confused about Bellinger.

After three seasons of utter suckiness in Los Angeles, during which he slashed a paltry .203/.272/.376 with just 41 homers, Bellinger returned to relevance with the Chicago Cubs in 2023 as a completely different dude. Sacrificing power for contact, the 28-year-old posted an adjusted OPS 33 percent above league average, earning him a 10th-place finish in the NL MVP voting. And now, he finds himself in an extremely advantageous position: The consensus best position player available in a shockingly weak free agent market for position players.

But how real is the new Cody Bellinger? Can he be counted on to replicate his resurgent 2023? Was his bounce back the product of fortune, a legitimate change, or a combination? Should a team feel comfortable bestowing him with a $200 million contract?

These are the questions clubs around baseball are asking themselves right now. Thriftier organizations are likely out on Bellinger from the jump, considering the payday agent Scott Boras is looking for. Other rosters, like the Braves, Giants and Mets, already have somebody entrenched in center field. But teams rumored to be in the mix — the Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs and Angels — are no doubt pouring over Bellinger's 2023 data to verify the validity of his rejuvenation.

Let's do the same.

What was so different about Cody Bellinger in 2023?

A lot. He was, most importantly, healthier than he'd been in years. Bellinger had battled a cavalcade of injuries during those years of woe in Los Angeles, but appeared a refreshed and limbered-up version of himself with the Cubs.

But health be damned, there was also clearly a huge shift in approach.

I mentioned earlier that Bellinger sacrificed power for average. Here's what that actually means: His average exit velocity was down across the board, while his zone contact rate skyrocketed from 80.9 to 87.4 percent. Softer batted balls, but way more of them.

And these changes were particularly drastic in 0-2 counts.

Cody Bellinger in 0-2 Counts (courtesy of TruMedia)
	2023 League Average	Bellinger 2022	Bellinger 2023	Difference
Contact rate	74.1%	69.5%	82.8%	+13.3%
In-Zone contact rate	84.5%	76.6%	88.2%	+11.6%
Exit Velo	86.7	87.9	81.1	-6.8
Expected AVG	.164	.103	.210	+.107
Expected SLG	.256	.187	.302	+.115

In 2022, Bellinger treated 0-2 counts as another opportunity to obliterate the baseball. In 2023, he treated 0-2 counts like a fight for survival. That new plan worked wonders. Because even though Bellinger hit 0-2 pitches softer than ever, he performed significantly better against them than he had in years.

That all tracks with the messaging that Bellinger and the Chicago coaching staff were conveying to the media.

"What keeps him afloat even when he's struggling, is the hand-eye," former Cubs manager David Ross told FOX Sports' Deesha Thosar back in August. "The ability to play pepper — not strike out, hit the ball the other way, put the ball in play — is really valuable. I don't think we talk about that a whole lot."

Ross, Bellinger and a pair of Cubs hitting coaches, Dustin Kelly and Johnny Washington, explained that the mechanical adjustment wasn't all that complicated. Kelly and Washington slightly altered Bellinger's hand positioning pre-pitch and opened up his front side a smidge to increase the extent of his hip hinge. Those mechanical changes, alongside Bellinger returning to full health and his new outlook on two strikes, all contributed to the spectacular 2023 that is going to earn Bellinger a big bag of Benjamins at some point this winter.

How sustainable is this shift?

It's complicated.

There's no doubt that Bellinger's 2023 was buoyed by some very fortunate batted ball luck — he ran a comically unsustainable .445 batting average on balls in play on 0-2 counts — but there are aspects of his new approach that smell real. Folks around the Cubs championed Bellinger's level of focus and commitment and believed he genuinely improved some of his pitch recognition and decision-making skills. Those in support of Bellinger see an obvious cause and effect.

Flippin' Bats closes curtain on an incredible 2023 MLB season

But if Bellinger gets the bag, could he revert to some of his old, destructive tendencies? That's impossible to know and completely dependent on the context. With a great coaching staff on a competitive team, 2024 Bellinger has a higher likelihood of staying focused and sustaining his bounce back. If he takes $230 million from, say, the Rockies, there's legitimate reason for skepticism.

Bellinger's free agency presents a unique dynamic: a supersonic ceiling and a cavernous pit. If he recaptures the power stroke from his early Dodger days — 3-1 counts — while maintaining his newfound contact rates, Bellinger could return to the MVP conversation. But though Bellinger's defense in centerfield presents something of a dependable floor, he could certainly abandon the two-strike approach that saved him in 2023 and immediately become one of the most unsavory contracts in baseball.

It all depends on whether or not a team thinks they can keep Bellinger's good times rolling, whether they have the coaching staff, the systems and the atmosphere in place to enable and support the improvements from 2023. That the Cubs, who fostered the glassy-eyed slugger's bounce back and have more information on Bellinger than anyone, remain tentatively involved in his services is a positive sign.

But anybody who says they know what Cody Bellinger will be moving forward is confused, including Cody Bellinger.

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.