Major League Baseball

What can Red Sox expect from James Paxton this season?

Published Mar. 3, 2022 5:41 p.m. ET

It's been a while since the last time James Paxton has played baseball.

The 33-year-old lefty has played sporadically since the end of the 2019 season, and despite inking a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Seattle Mariners in early 2021, Paxton threw just 24 pitches in his first start with the squad before being removed from the game with elbow discomfort.

Tommy John surgery followed in the days after, and Paxton spent the remainder of the campaign sidelined in rehab.

Paxton signed with Boston last December on a one-year, $10 million deal that includes club options built in for the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

He was set to continue his rehabilitation process with the squad during spring training — that is before the season was placed on hiatus due to the current lockout.

So when exactly does Paxton project to return to the bump, and what can the Red Sox expect from him when he does?

Well, that answer is particularly tricky, as recovery periods differ based on a number of factors, including previous injuries, their severity, and players' individual bodies.

For example, lefty Chris Sale made his first appearance on the mound in Aug. 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. Some pitchers have made complete recoveries in around a year, while it's taken two full seasons for others to regain full strength.

If we average out that difference, Paxton is looking at an August-September for a return window.

As far as what to expect, that is also something that is hard to predict. Paxton was excellent through his first six years, compiling a 3.42 ERA across 102 starts from 2013-18 for the Mariners. He was solid in 2019 with the Yankees, too, going 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts. But he has only made six starts since as injuries have taken their toll.

Boston's pitching staff allowed 5.12 runs per game last season, the fourth-worst mark in baseball. Signing Paxton was a move aimed at improving that number.

But the Red Sox are going to have to wait a bit for Paxton to even take the mound, and how he'll pitch once he does remains unclear.

If he arrives without a hitch, Paxton could provide an invaluable rotational boost for a team that looks primed to make a deep postseason run. If it doesn't work out, there aren't a lot of great alternatives left out there for Boston to bank on.

"Even if the Red Sox do go after another free agent pitcher, though, who really moves the needle at this point?" Dan Szymborski wrote on Fangraphs.

The Red Sox are taking a $10 million gamble that Paxton will make it happen.