Where do the Yankees go from here — besides the bottom of the AL East?
Things are bleak in the Bronx.
The Yankees' approach to the trade deadline was one of indifference, neutrality, complacency. While their American League counterparts actively improved, New York acquired nothing besides a solid middle reliever and a DFA flier with an ERA over 10.
It's far from the deadline Yanks fans pictured. Instead of buying to bolster the current team or selling rentals to enhance the 2024 squad, general manager Brian Cashman & Co. did neither. They stood pat, motionless, with their hands in their pockets as their rivals improved. Total complacency from a franchise in dire need of a definitive plan.
And right now, in these sloggy dog days of summer, as the Yankees pile up L's and bad vibes, it's difficult to envision this lethargic, uninspiring bunch forcing its way into the postseason picture. Cashman's inaction at the deadline hollered the quiet part out loud: He did not believe the current roster was good enough to warrant additional investment, whether financially or in terms of prospect capital.
FanGraphs still gives the Yankees a 20% chance to make the postseason — a number large enough to irrationally believe but one too small to gamble on (though the Angels did so with similar probability).
As such, the pinstripe faithful are frustrated and perplexed. There is little faith within the fan base that the Cashman-led front office has the vision to lift the franchise out of this lurch. New York's 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday night was little more than a temporary salve. Inconsistency cannot be remedied in a single evening. This Yankees roster, particularly its offense, is fundamentally flawed. And those flaws are unlikely to be rectified any time soon.
Still just 56-52 the Yanks are in danger of finishing a season under .500 for the first time since 1992. Current manager Aaron Boone was a freshman at USC at the time. Aaron Judge was born three weeks after Opening Day that year.
Safe to say it's been a minute.
Will the Yankees miss the MLB postseason for the first time since 2016?
The organization's track record of consistency is commendable, its enormous payroll advantages aside. But the tide may be shifting. The Yankees look more stuck than they have been in years. The run prevention unit — a fancy phrase for pitching and defense — is reliable and top-notch, but the offense ... is an oof factory.
So, what does a path to contention look like? How could or would this current roster evolve into a 2024 contender? What can this leadership group do to return the storied franchise to glory in the years to come? Are things really as bad as they seem?
Here's an abridged list:
- Continued dominance from Judge and Gerrit Cole
- Signs of life from Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo
- Offensive uptick from Anthony Volpe
- Contributions from top prospects like Oswald Peraza, Austin Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones
Any roster featuring both Judge and Cole has an extremely high floor. Sure, those two all-world talents will combine to earn a whopping $76 million per year through 2028, but that's money well spent, a hefty investment worth making. Judge can be the best hitter on Earth when he's healthy. Cole can be one of the five best pitchers when he's not allowing home runs by the truckload. Judge was the AL MVP last year. Cole might win the AL Cy Young this year.
That is an enviable foundation from which to build. As long as Judge and Cole are kicking people's teeth in, the Yankees should be trying to contend. Players like that don't come around often. When the window is open, it's best to keep it that way.
But beyond that duo, the outlook gets much murkier, especially on the offensive side. Gleyber Torres is good, but not great, and he's just one year away from the open market. Center fielder Harrison Bader appears set to depart in free agency. Jake Bauers has been a bright spot, but might not figure in the team's plans moving forward.
The Jose Trevino-Kyle Higashioka catching tandem is defensively valuable, but lacks punch at the dish. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has stabilized into what the Yankees thought he'd be, a versatile defender with enough secondary skills to make up for a weak stick. He's probably too far from an impact bat, however, to be New York's everyday left fielder.
Meanwhile, the team's financial commitments to the aging, declining, injury-prone trio of Stanton, LeMahieu and Rizzo have stunted this season and will hamstring next season, as well.
[Mintz: Biggest winners and losers from the MLB trade deadline]
The 33-year-old Stanton, whose leg injuries have petrified his lower half and left him with a running gait reminiscent of a concrete giraffe, looks unlikely to regain his MVP form. LeMahieu, 35, has seen his strikeout rate nearly double, his walk rate plummet and is still under contract for three more seasons. Rizzo, also 33, has only one home run since May 21st, although that might be attributable to a lingering concussion. But without any notable improvements from that trio — which is set to make a combined $64 million next year — it's hard to visualize the Yankees snafu untangling next season.
An offensive step forward from Volpe is an absolute must. The 22-year-old rookie shortstop has rebounded from an abysmal start to hold serve at the big-league level. But while fellow prospect graduates like Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll have lit the league ablaze, Volpe's sky-high 28.5% strikeout rate has limited his offensive value.
Other than Volpe, no Yankees rookies have made a dent. In Peraza's case, that's mostly due to a lack of opportunity. The infield prospect was beat out by Volpe in spring training, and despite putting up monster Triple-A numbers, the 23-year-old Venezuelan hasn't gotten a consistent string of starts with the big-league club. With the infield alignment set for next year — Rizzo, Torres, Volpe, LeMahieu — Peraza still would need an injury or trade (maybe Torres) to open up a starting spot.
Beyond Peraza, the Yankees' system does have a glut of position-player prospects who could contribute next season. Everson Pereira, Trey Sweeney and Dominguez are all at Double-A or above, though none are surefire picks to click. Dominguez — code named The Martian for the alien abilities he displayed at a shockingly young age — is a solid prospect, but his fame far outweighs his likely future impact. Pereira is lighting up Triple-A as an athletic 22-year-old center fielder, but has some Estevan Florial-scented red flags. Sweeney is an advanced college bat with infield versatility, but needs to prove it above Double-A.
These are valuable prospects, sure, but nobody in the system is a knight on horseback waiting in the wings to save the day. An addition or two in free agency will help matters, but it's a historically weak offensive class of players set to hit the market. Is Teoscar Hernández really the difference between fifth and first place in the AL East?
The Yankees will need to improve from within to improve in the win column. And given the current state of play, that feels more like a prayer than a plan.
Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.
