Which active MLB players have a chance to hit 600 career home runs?
Now that Albert Pujols has joined the 600-homer club, which MLB players have a chance to join him before their careers are done?
On Saturday, Albert Pujols joined an exclusive club when he launched a grand slam against the Minnesota Twins for his 600th career home run. With that blast, he joined eight other players in the long history of baseball to have achieved that mark. This collection of players all got to the same destination but they took different routes to get there.
Pujols got started down the road to 600 home runs by being very consistent over the first dozen years of his career. From 2001 to 2011, he hit between 32 and 49 home runs every year. His seasonal average was right in the middle, at 40 long balls per season. Not only did he hit home runs with regularity, he also averaged .328/.420/.617, with 117 runs scored and 121 RBI per year.
After the 2011 season, Pujols signed a big free agent deal with the Los Angeles Angels and his consistency didn't make the trip out west. He hit 30 home runs in his first year with the Angels, then just 17 homers in an injury-shortened 2013 season. Over the last three years, he's hit 28, 40, and 31 round-trippers, but he's no longer a .300/.400/.600 guy.
Pujols is projected by the FanGraphs Depth Charts to hit another 18 home runs this year, which will leave him 82 short of the even more exclusive 700 club. He also has four more years (and $114 million) on the 10-year deal he signed with the Angels before the 2012 season. Pujols has a shot at getting to 700 career home runs, but it's not a sure thing.
The previous eight members of the 600-homer club averaged 83 home runs over their last four years. Four players—Sammy Sosa (110), Barry Bonds (104), Babe Ruth (103), and Hank Aaron (82)—hit 82 or more home runs, which is the mark Pujols will be shooting for to get to 700. Jim Thome (71), Alex Rodriguez (67), Ken Griffey, Jr. (67), and Willie Mays (60) were not as productive in their final four seasons.
It will be interesting to see if Pujols can get to the next tier and join Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth as the only players with 700 or more home runs. In the meantime, is there anyone currently playing who has a shot at making the 600-homer club a 10-person group? Let's look at the players who may have a shot.
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A Roaring Tiger
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers, 34 years old
451 career home runs
32 HR/YR (career)
27 HR/YR (last 3 years)
Now that Pujols has hit his 600th home run, the active player who is closest to the mark is Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera, with 451 career dingers. As good a hitter as Cabrera has been in his career, he's well behind the pace that Albert Pujols was at the same age when it comes to home runs. Cabrera came into this season with 446 home runs in his first 14 years. Pujols had 520 homers in his first 14 years.
Of the other eight members of the 600-homer club, only Barry Bonds (445) and Jim Thome (423) had fewer home runs than Cabrera through their first 14 seasons. Bonds had a monster stretch of home run hitting starting at the age of 35, when he averaged 52 home runs per year over a five-year stretch. In the process, he blew right past 600 and 700 career home runs.
Jim Thome was also very productive as an older player. He averaged 32 home runs per year from 2006 to 2010 when he was 35 to 39 years old. This late stretch really helped him get past the 600 mark. Cabrera is projected to finish this year with 24 home runs, which will give him 470 for his career. If he plays until he's 40, he'll need to hit 22 home runs per year to reach the 600 mark.
Giancarlo Stanton
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Masher
Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins, 27 years old
223 career home runs
30 HR/YR (career)
30 HR/YR (last 3 years)
After Miguel Cabrera, the players closest to 600 home runs are all likely too old to play long enough to get to that mark. Adrian Beltre has 446 career homers, but is 38 years old. He won't hit another 154 in his career. Carlos Beltran has 428 homers, but is even older than Beltre. Edwin Encarnacion is only 34 years, but he's 131 round-trippers behind Miguel Cabrera at the same age.
To find MLB players with the potential to hit 600 career home runs, you have to go pretty far down the list to the player who is currently 30th among active players. Giancarlo Stanton is 27 years old and has 223 career big flies. He's projected to hit another 27 this year (health permitting, of course), which will leave him with 250 in his career.
If he gets to 250 home runs through his age-27 season, Stanton will be ahead of the pace of five of the players in the 600-homer club. Those five—Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Jim Thome—all needed big home run seasons after the age of 27 to get to 600. Cabrera will be on a similar pace as Hank Aaron, who had 253 home runs through his age-27 season, but Aaron was able to sustain a 41-homers-per-year pace from the ages of 35 to 39.
Stanton's contract with the Marlins lasts until he's 37 years old, with an opt out after the 2020 season, when he'll have just completed his age-30 season. To reach 600 home runs, Stanton will have to play until he's 40 years old and average 27 home runs per year. He's averaged 30 homers per year so far in his career, but injuries have limited him to an average of 118 games per season in his first seven years. He needs a good stretch of 40-plus home run seasons to give him some cushion for those declining years in his late 30s.
Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
A Soaring Angel
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, 25 years old
184 career home runs
33 HR/YR (career)
35 HR/YR (last 3 years)
A thumb injury has put Mike Trout's incredible career on hold for a couple months, so he's sitting on 184 career home runs in the middle of his age-25 season. That's already good for 11th place all-time for a 25-year-old player. Trout is projected to hit another 12 home runs when he comes back from the DL, which would move him up to 196 in his career and 8th place on the career list for players through their age-25 season.
If Trout reaches his projection this year, he would be just five big flies behind Albert Pujols at the same age. Pujols and Alex Rodriguez (241 homers through his age-25 season) would be the only players in the 600-homer club ahead of Trout at the same age. Sammy Sosa (95) and Jim Thome (93) were both below 100 home runs at the same point of their careers.
Trout is under contract with the Angels through his age-28 season. If/when he hits free agency, all previous contract records will be shattered. He may sign a 10-year deal for half a billion dollars. A 10-year deal wouldn't take him through the age of 40, but for our purposes we'll assume he plays that long. To get to 600 home runs, he'll need to average 27 home runs per season. He's averaged 33 per year so far in his career and 35 per year over the last three years. Like Stanton, it would be good for Trout to have more 40-homer seasons while he's at his peak in preparation for a late-career slowdown.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
A Nationals Masher
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals, 24 years old
136 career home runs
24 HR/YR (career)
26 HR/YR (last 3 years)
In the middle of his age-24 season, Bryce Harper is tied for 19th all-time for career home runs by a player at that age. He's projected to hit another 23 home runs this year, which would move him up to 159 for his career and 10th place on the list for players through their age-24 season. That would be just one home run behind Albert Pujols at the same age. Only Pujols (160), Ken Griffey, Jr. (172), and Alex Rodriguez (189) would have more at the young age of 24 among the nine players currently in the 600-homer club.
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Of course, there are a number of guys higher on the age-24 career home run leaderboard who never got to 600 home runs, including Eddie Mathews (190), Mel Ott (176), Jimmie Foxx (174), Mickey Mantle (173), and Frank Robinson (165). They were all great players who couldn't sustain their home run prowess late enough into their careers.
If Harper reaches his projection this year and finishes the season with 159 career home runs, he'll be slightly behind the pace of Mike Trout, who had 168 through his age-24 season. If he plays until he's 40 years old, Harper will need to average 28 home runs per year over the remainder of his career to get to 600.
In his first five seasons, Harper has averaged 24 home runs per year, including an average of 26 per year over the last three years. Those seasons include a couple of injury-shortened years. Based on what Harper does when fully healthy, he looks like a perennial 40-homer guy and should be able to sustain that level for a while considering he's only 24 this year. It's easy to forget how young Harper still is. As an example, Harper is younger than the phenom in New York who is tearing the cover off the ball, Aaron Judge.
Hitting 600 career home runs won't be easy for any of these four players, but Miguel Cabrera, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, and Bryce Harper have a chance to get there. As Rockford Peach manager Jimmy Dugan said in A League Of Their Own, "If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. It's the hard that makes it great."
