Major League Baseball

Who will be starting games for the Dodgers in October?

Published Sep. 11, 2023 1:36 p.m. ET

On Aug. 11, Julio Urías had just tossed back-to-back scoreless outings, Lance Lynn was helping steady a fickle Dodgers rotation, Walker Buehler was ramping up his Tommy John comeback efforts with his sights set on a September return, and Clayton Kershaw was back from a six-week stay on the injured list.

Now, exactly one month later, everything has changed.

Getting to the postseason for the 11th straight season isn't a concern for the Dodgers, whose magic number is down to seven. Getting through the postseason, however, looks much more challenging given the unsettled status of their starting pitching.

Urías, the anticipated ace of the pitching staff who earned the club's Opening Day start in a contract year, is on administrative leave for the foreseeable future after being arrested on suspicion of felony domestic violence. Buehler, who made one rehab start at Triple-A, is officially not returning until 2024. Lynn is again getting plagued by the long ball, back to serving up homers at a historic rate.

And then came the latest bit of rather ominous news.

On Monday, it will be rookie Gavin Stone — not Kershaw — taking the mound. Manager Dave Roberts announced that Kershaw will be pushed back four days, giving him nine days of rest since his last start in Miami, an outing in which he averaged 88.2 mph on his fastball.

Roberts insisted to reporters that the decision is more about how the Dodgers want to line up their rotation moving forward than it is about Kershaw's health, but it is nonetheless noteworthy considering Kershaw's diminished velocity since his return from an unspecified shoulder issue. Kershaw has not gone more than five innings or thrown more than 84 pitches in any of his five starts back, the last of which included five walks and the lowest average velocity on his four-seamer in any game during his 16-year career.

Pushing Kershaw back to the end of the week would likely set him up for three more starts before the postseason. Whatever the Dodgers think they need to do to get Kershaw at his best in October, they have to try. After all, the playoff rotation behind him is as murky as it's ever been. The answer could come in the form of bullpen games, a bevy of young, mercurial starting pitchers or both.

Bobby Miller will undoubtedly be part of the postseason mix, having put together the most complete season among the Dodgers' cadre of rookie talents.

"It's part of my goals," Miller told FOX Sports in August. "But still gotta prove myself, to show them that I can do that. I believe I can, but there's still more to show."

Miller is known for the triple-digit heat that emanates from his right arm, but it's the way he's using his secondary pitches that has put him in position to potentially start playoff games or pitch meaningful innings come October. Opponents are hitting .121 against his changeup, and he has more than 20 strikeouts apiece on his curveball and slider, though the latter pitch still remains a bit of a work in progress.

"I was trying out a bigger slider at some point, wasn't getting much miss to righties on the really hard slider that I've thrown," he told FOX Sports. "I've liked it a lot to lefties, but right now, I'm just kind of trying to find a tweener in between both of those to throw to right or left. The slider's been inconsistent in each start, I feel like. I've got a lot of work to do on it still on finding the right shape I want, what plays best to my arm slot. So, I'm kind of trying to figure that out."

Despite allowing at least four runs in three of his past four outings, Miller has a 3.59 ERA over 10 second-half starts. He has done a better job avoiding long innings, walks and three-ball counts, which tended to dictate early departures.

After posting a 1.23 WHIP and a 2.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in eight starts before the All-Star break, Miller has a 1.08 WHIP and 3.85 K/BB ratio since. He has gone at least six innings in each of his past six starts, crossing the 100-inning mark for the year in the process. Between the majors and Triple-A, he has already thrown more innings than he has in any season in his college or pro career.

But it doesn't look like the Dodgers envision shutting down the 24-year-old at any point.

"For a young player that potentially could be, as he put it, ‘a count-on guy,' you've got to get experience," Roberts said. "And the only way you do that is pitching or taking at-bats. So, this is a crash course for Bobby. We potentially could be counting on him in the postseason, so he needs as many repetitions or innings as he can have, in my opinion."

After that, things get considerably more uncertain in the rotation, an unnerving development for a Dodgers team with the second-best record in the National League. The Dodgers have used unconventional pitching methods in Octobers past. This time, it might come out of necessity.

The acquisition of swingman Ryan Yarbrough looks prudent now, given his playoff experience with the Rays and effectiveness with the Dodgers both in a piggyback role and, as of Sunday, a starter. But the options are limited.

It's a problem the Dodgers couldn't have foreseen when the season began.

They had Urías and Kershaw headlining the rotation. Dustin May appeared fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. Noah Syndergaard was an exciting reclamation project who seemingly was in the right place to find his form. Once healthy, Tony Gonsolin and rookie Ryan Pepiot figured to give the Dodgers more able bodies than needed, even before getting to the handful of top prospects who figured to make an impact at some point.

Now, almost none of those pieces are available.

Urías might have thrown his last pitch as a Dodger. May underwent season-ending flexor tendon surgery on July 18. Gonsolin battled through a UCL tear before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard was traded for utility infielder Amed Rosario after an ineffective stint in Los Angeles, and midseason acquisition Lynn, who had a 1.44 ERA over his first four starts with the Dodgers, has surrendered eight homers and 19 runs over his past three outings.

The Dodgers have a few more weeks to figure out if Lynn can cut his home run rate and which rookies deserve a spot on the playoff roster. Whether they serve as bulk starters in bullpen games or earn more regular opportunities in October, their best options this postseason might also be their most inexperienced.

Last Thursday would have been Urías' start day. Instead, it went to Pepiot, who flirted with perfection in seven shutout innings. Since returning from a strained intercostal that sidelined him until August, the 26-year-old has taken advantage of every opportunity. Pepiot has a 0.86 ERA this year after two piggyback outings and two more typical starts.

Stone was the first top prospect the Dodgers called up to pitch this year. He struggled in his first few big-league opportunities but looked much better on Aug. 27 in Boston, when he went a career-high six innings. Suddenly, he has an opportunity ahead. The same is true for 23-year-old Emmet Sheehan.

Without their typical aces atop the rotation, the Dodgers will use the next month to figure out what their postseason pitching plan might look like.

Despite cruising toward their 10th division title in the last 11 years, their October rotation remains anyone's guess.

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and MLB as a whole for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers' editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.