Major League Baseball

Why Astros are 'scariest team' and Tigers must shop Tarik Skubal, per John Smoltz

Published Jul. 23, 2024 5:41 p.m. ET

With a week to go before the trade deadline, some difficult decisions loom across MLB.

Should the Detroit Tigers actually trade ace Tarik Skubal? Is it time for the defending champion Texas Rangers to be sellers? And what’s the answer for the depleted Atlanta Braves roster?

As part of our weekly conversation with John Smoltz, the MLB on FOX analyst shared his thoughts on Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Mason Miller and the names who could define the deadline, the scariest team in the American League, what it’s like for the players during trade season and more.

Kavner: Given all of the Atlanta Braves' injuries, what should they do at the deadline?

Smoltz: They're in a really, really tough spot because when they're healthy, they obviously have a lineup that can compete with any other lineup, a historic lineup last year. But the amount of injuries that are piling up and what you're willing to give up because this is a temporary fix. It's very difficult to navigate that when you have Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuña out. The bottom line is they've got to get Matt Olson hot. Austin Riley's got to get going. Marcell Ozuna has been unbelievable, but there really hasn't been much else. Jarred Kelenic has been pretty good. It's just a matter of they've got to get some guys hot because you can't have your first baseman go 1-for 33. He's going to get hot, he's going to carry them for stretches, and you hope it's sooner rather than later.

You mentioned Albies and Acuna, Strider has been out and now Max Fried is sidelined. You played on some great teams in your career, but do players ever get to a point in a year, even on playoff teams, where they feel like it's just not their season?

Yeah, there's years like that, and that's where management has tough decisions to make because you're in a pretty strong position, but you feel like, Can you hang on? That's never a good feeling, right? You look at all the games they have to play now and once had a very significant lead in the wild-card spot, it's shrinking. And catching the Philadelphia Phillies wouldn't be the priority. That'd be a luxury, but I just think where they're at and the people that have to step up, you just need those guys to step up. And everyone knows it intuitively. You can't press; you can't be superhuman, you just have to be able to pick up the slack for pieces that are now no longer on your roster.

The Houston Astros are back in a familiar spot atop the AL West. Are they the scariest team in the American League?

Well, I mean, their experience and everything they've been through definitely puts them in that position. Look, I don't care if they're facing a team that wins 106 games and if they get in the playoffs, you got to believe they have the advantage. So they're getting healthier. They've got to get Justin Verlander in the mix and certainly Kyle Tucker. They just have a pedigree and a roster full of experienced guys that you fear. That's the scariest team. I felt like 10 games out, they were not out of it. I know a lot of people were concerned that they may be sellers; that's never going to be the case with the Astros at this point with the roster they have, and again, the experience they have.

They still have a little ways to go, but, boy, have they picked up a lot of ground, and they put themselves in a great spot to not only defend their division title, but everyone knows the path through the American League over the last six or seven years has been you got to get through Houston. The Texas Rangers were able to do that. And now other teams are going to have to fear that experience. And that position that they're in is more familiar than what they were about a month ago.

The Rangers are a few games back in the division but even further out in the wild card. They also have a plethora of interesting assets. If they're still this far out at the deadline, do you think they should be sellers?

I don't think they should. They're getting some pitching healthier, and that gives them a chance. Their offense, for whatever reason, at times they did this last year, would go kind of quiet and not score. But I think they're in a good spot if they can get their pitching lined up the way it was originally planned. They're waiting for Jacob deGrom. They're waiting for a couple other pieces. They've gotten Max Scherzer back, and I just think that they are within striking distance of a division that they feel like they have the roster that can make that run, so plenty of time for the defending champs.

Should the Tigers make Tarik Skubal available for the right price?

You have to. They're fighting for a wild-card spot. They got hot of late. A lot's going to be determined by where you're at, at the All-Star break and if you rate your team internally against the team you're trying to catch. If you feel like you're better than those teams and you can make that push that results in the playoffs — and then of course next year, same thing — you keep him. But you would be really crazy to not at least entertain what you could get for one of the best in the game right now.

The Detroit Tigers are trending in the right direction. This could signal a confusing message to its fan base. But, now the Washington Nationals don't look so bad after that trade of Juan Soto. Sometimes it takes a couple of years to see what these players are capable of doing. And now, they got the best end of it, not to mention the San Diego Padres don't have Soto anymore. You think about that, and you watch that and you can go look at what the Nationals did. Look where they're at. Look at the players they got. I think that could be the same kind of thing even though it's a pitcher, once every five days, the commodity of starting pitching is so scarce that the demand will be greater than sometimes a position player.

What teams specifically should consider going all-in on Skubal?

To me, he's the prize. Of everybody out there, I can't really foresee any other bigger piece, and if I'm the Detroit Tigers, I'm flaunting him for a big package. Maybe they don't do it, but if there's some package that goes, "Whoa, we can't pass that up," maybe you look at it. And I think for teams that are dying to have a lockdown starter added to their rotation that are already in a playoff mix, you've got to do it.

And, of course, the names like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles and the front-runners are always going to be at the forefront of looking to add that piece, that starter. And whoever's willing to part ways with some of their top prospects is going to land him if Detroit is willing to do that.

What do you make of the market surrounding the Chicago White Sox's Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert?

That's an interesting one because when you get Crochet, you're not getting him to start at the end of the year just because of the innings; you're getting him for the future. So, that's going to be more intriguing on the package that the Chicago White Sox would want to get. Maybe they package both of them together, or they separate it, but he's definitely a futuristic type-pick where you're planning on getting him for the foreseeable future to where he can build up his innings. But I think the problem with that is you're putting them in your bullpen, and not that he can't be a valuable asset and just an unbelievable piece, but when you're talking about what you're willing to give up for a guy like that, you're really giving up the future to have him under control.

So, when the White Sox made him a starter, I think everybody knew, OK, this is going to be interesting. But he's not going to be able to last throughout the year because I think 60 innings might have been the most he's ever thrown. So, that to me has more to do with down the road, even though he'd be an impact at the end of the year. He's not starting Game 1. He's coming out of the pen.

Should the Athletics trade Mason Miller?

Yeah, and another intriguing scenario because closers typically don't demand that much, especially when you're renting them for a year or two, but in this case, you're getting this young man for quite some time. So, I don't know what the Oakland Athletics are going to do. I know they're moving, and they're going to have a new home, and they want to be relevant when that new home is able to be unveiled and they're able to play.

So, this one to me would probably shock me on what you're willing to give up for this guy. And it might fall under the category of a team that is desperate. They've lost somebody in their pen that they really need a lockdown guy, and they're willing to give a lot for it.

Should the Blue Jays trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

The Toronto Blue Jays are going to be on the clock for a lot of hard decisions. They have built this club in a way where the offense was going to be their MO, right? That was what they were going to be known for. They've got future players that were of the lineage of their fathers. I think Toronto, at the end of the day, may have the hardest decisions of any club out there because what they're giving up is they're telling their fan base they're going in another direction.

They got to kind of reboot in the middle of what has been a young team with pretty good pitching. So, again, what you're able to get for a guy with one more year will be whether or not that package is something they're willing [to accept], but they have the toughest decision of any team, in my opinion, on what route they're going to take.

You were traded really early in your career, but was there ever a time during your long tenure with Atlanta where you remember feeling anxious around the deadline about the possibility of being dealt?

Fortunately for me, when you're in the middle of a contract, that helps. When you're approaching 10 years, when you have the right to veto, that's the biggest play in baseball for a player is getting to that 10 years with one team, so I don't know how close I would've ever been. Your name is always floated, but fortunately, we were always winning. So, that has never really been as big of a moment or anxiousness for me, personally, but we lost a lot of players during that time. And I'm sure for them and for us, it's always tough because they were a part of you when you left spring training, and then they became a trade piece for you to enhance your club, so to speak.

So, this time of the year is never fun for a lot of people, especially if you go from a somewhat winning situation to a losing situation. Now, it's great when it's the reverse. When you're on a losing team, and you go automatically to a winning team, that's the greatest thing in the world, but it's never that great for the players that have to be the back end of that deal.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB's lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network's marquee regular season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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