Major League Baseball

Why Orioles' ceiling is even higher than imagined: 'They're just scratching the surface'

Updated Apr. 25, 2024 3:16 p.m. ET

There are many ways to tell what Gunnar Henderson means to the Orioles, from the hardware he took home last year as the American League Rookie of the Year, to his spot atop the lineup of the reigning AL East champs, to his team-leading eight homers, 20 runs and 20 RBIs through 23 games this season.

But the best way might come from watching the updated swing of his teammate Jordan Westburg, whose increased production at the plate this season can be attributed in part to a mechanical change inspired by a player three years his junior.

"I'm trying to blend Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson," Westburg explained.

Westburg, one of multiple second-year players taking a tremendous leap forward in the Orioles' lineup early this year, was among a procession of preternatural position-player prospects whose ascension through Baltimore's minor-league ranks began at a time when the big-league club still dwelled in the cellar of the AL East and dreamed of a brighter future — one that is now becoming reality.

The first wave of franchise-altering talent arrived in earnest in 2022, when Henderson and Adley Rutschman helped the Orioles make a 31-win year-over-year improvement and finish with a winning record for the first time in six seasons. Last year represented another gargantuan leap forward as more young talents contributed to the Orioles' first division title in nine years, though the impact from the crop of position-player prospects wasn't quite the same.

Colton Cowser, the No. 5 overall pick in 2021, was called up in July and slashed just .115/.286/.148 in 26 games before spending the rest of the year mashing at Triple-A Norfolk. Heston Kjerstad, the No. 2 overall pick in 2020, was called up in mid-September and hit around league average in a brief 13-game stint to end the season. He made the American League Division Series roster but didn't play in the series and began this year at Norfolk, where he homered 10 times in 21 games — one of which included a 10-RBI performance — before getting called up again earlier this week.

"It's part of your journey," Kjerstad said. "You want everything ASAP, but that's not life. You've got to sit back, be patient, and when your time comes be ready for it."

That is what Westburg is doing now in his follow-up campaign. Westburg, the No. 30 overall pick in 2020, hit around league average over 68 games (54 starts) for the Orioles last season before recording two hits in nine at-bats in the ALDS. Westburg was at the plate when Baltimore's season ended, striking out on three pitches from Rangers closer José Leclerc, who got him to whiff on a fastball in the zone, foul off a slider, then swing through a 98-mph fastball right down the middle.

It's a clip Westburg estimates he has seen about a million times.

"There were some big scenarios where I didn't come through last year that still eat away at me and drive me," he told FOX Sports this week.

So, this winter, he made a change.

When the season ended, hitting coach Ryan Fuller sent Westburg a year-in-review report providing information about where the player excelled, where he struggled and what his averages were against different big-league pitchers. Westburg noticed he had room to grow against high velocity, so he went back and watched some of his at-bats against the flamethrowers he had faced.

"It seemed like I just wasn't syncing up right," Westburg said. "I was getting beat at the top of the zone, and I know I've been able to hit it before."

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After some self-reflection, Westburg came to the conclusion that he was wiggling his bat too much when he began his load. As he worked out this offseason in Mississippi, he made a conscious effort to keep his bat head more still. Beyond that, he also looked around his clubhouse and thought about the players who were best at handling heat. He noticed they tended to stand more upright at the plate.

Westburg told Fuller he wanted to begin incorporating some of Henderson's setup at the plate — a remarkable example of the respect the superstar 22-year-old shortstop has already garnered from his teammates in his short time in the majors.

"Gunnar's up tall, super athletic in his stance but a little more tight with his hands, and I liked that," Westburg explained. "I felt like I was almost too loose at times. With the barrel wiggle, it just wasn't timing itself up. Whereas Gunnar, it always seems like he's ready to hit."

In addition to standing taller in his stance, Fuller said Westburg also moved his hands higher in an effort to be quicker into the zone and cover more of the plate. Though Westburg's swing remains a constant work in progress, the early results from the changes are astounding.

He is batting over .300 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches. He has lowered his strikeout rate, increased his hard-hit rate almost 16 percentage points from last year and is hitting .364 against pitches of at least 95 mph after hitting .167 against those same pitches last season.

"He made those changes on his own, but it lined up with what we saw just being a matchup-proof hitter," Fuller said. "To see what he's doing now, it gives us confidence, but it should give him the most confidence — because it was his idea."

While Henderson and Rutschman have significantly raised the floor in Baltimore, it is the jump in production of the next wave of young contributors — a group featuring Westburg (.941 OPS) and Cowser (1.139) — that gives reason to believe the Orioles might possess the offensive depth to compete for a championship, especially if Kjerstad and top overall MLB prospect Jackson Holliday can add to the cause.

As Orioles coaches are quick to point out, every player develops at a different pace and often requires weathering tough stretches — Henderson and Rutschman included.

In 2022, Rutschman was hitting .143 after his first 15 games in the majors and didn't hit his first home run until his 21st career game. Henderson enjoyed a much faster start, homering in his first career game and hitting 26% better than league average over a brief 34-game sample, but his growing pains came early in his follow-up season. Henderson was hitting just .170 and slugging .310 through 33 games last year before catching fire and finishing eighth in MVP voting.

"The ability to make adjustments and then to keep their confidence was huge," manager Brandon Hyde said.

That is a through-line so far with the many highly-regarded prospects on the Baltimore roster — one that Holliday is working through now as the 20-year-old attempts to dig his way out of a 2-for-34 start to his career. As he adjusts to major-league competition, the rest of the Orioles lineup is picking the rookie up by obliterating the baseball. As a team, the Orioles rank first in average exit velocity, second in hard-hit rate and slugging percentage and third in OPS while jumping out to a 16-8 record.

Those totals are driven up by Westburg, who ranks in the top 2% of the league in hard-hit rate, and Cowser, who is hitting the ball nearly 4 mph harder on average this year and has already hit a ball 6 mph harder this year than he did at any point last season.

"Both those guys have just gotten more comfortable," Kjerstad said. "Y'all are seeing now, those are the players we all knew they were capable of being. They're great talents and they're just scratching the surface of what's to come for them."

For both Cowser and Westburg, a second-year surge also meant relaxing the mind.

Westburg said he no longer gets his identity lost in baseball the way he might have earlier in life. He is better able to separate his job — one he loves to do — from his personal happiness, which he attributes to his faith and finding purpose in something greater. He believes that clarity has made him a better player.

"I think there's freedom that comes with that that can then be translated onto the field," Westburg told FOX Sports. "You handle the pressures more, you handle the anxieties more, you handle the failures more, they turn into more learning experiences than things that you're going to get yourself down and think about all night."

Cowser, meanwhile, took some time to decompress and reflect this offseason after struggling in his first taste of the majors last year. He went home to Houston, took trips to California, Oregon and Florida and traveled to a couple of weddings. The mental reset seemed to help.

Feeling more comfortable with a year in the majors under his belt, Cowser is slugging .759 through 22 games this year — the highest mark of any major-leaguer with at least 50 at-bats this season. After going homerless in 61 at-bats last year, he has six in his first 58 at-bats of 2024.

The newfound success required some sacrifice.

After slugging .148 in 26 games as a rookie last year, he made a conscious effort this year to be more aggressive at the plate. That has led to an elevated strikeout rate and lower walk rate compared to last season, but it also has made him the most productive hitter on the team through the club's first 24 games.

"It's not necessarily being overconfident, overzealous, I think it's more or less remaining confident through the struggle," Cowser told FOX Sports. "I think the process has been a lot better this year, taking things one pitch at a time especially and resetting myself, taking a deep breath, things like that between pitches."

Like Westburg, Cowser also made a mechanical tweak. He created more space with his hands in an effort to adjust better to offspeed — though his jump in production is actually most evident in his production against fastballs this year (.440 with four home runs) compared to how he performed against them last season (.071, no homers, 14 strikeouts).

Over the past two weeks, Cowser and Westburg gave the Orioles their first back-to-back Player of the Week honors since Eddie Murray won in consecutive weeks in September 1981.

In the process, they've also raised the already sky-high ceiling in Baltimore for an Orioles team that looks ready to realize its massive potential.

"It's great to see that," Kjerstad said, "and also coming up behind them, it's like, ‘OK, if they can do it, I've played with them before, now it's my turn to join them and help out.'"

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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