Major League Baseball

Why Phillies' slide isn't concerning and Padres, D-backs are 'scary,’ per John Smoltz

Updated Aug. 6, 2024 8:53 p.m. ET

All three National League division leaders remain at least five games ahead, but the Padres' and Diamondbacks' blistering second-half pace is keeping the Dodgers on their toes while the Phillies' slide is putting the Braves and Mets in striking distance.

As part of our weekly conversation with Hall of Famer John Smoltz, the MLB on FOX analyst shared his thoughts on the playoff battle out west, the Padres' deadline moves to bolster the bullpen, Blake Snell's surge for the Giants, whether the Phillies' recent struggles are cause for concern, whether anyone can challenge Aaron Judge for American League MVP and one rookie besides Paul Skenes who has really captured his attention.

Kavner: The Padres seem to have a need for more starting pitching but instead put their focus at the deadline on fortifying their bullpen. How do you feel about playoff hopefuls building their staff that way?

Smoltz: Well, for a short season, you can do that, and you can get away with it. You can't do this a whole season in the bullpen. We've seen this tried, and it doesn't work. Your guys are gassed by the time they get to the postseason. This was a move to strengthen the end of the game, and they are really, really good at that. So, when your offense can give you the lead, and you're in position to make the postseason, it just strengthens you for that run you're trying to make.

I think long term, it's not a viable option to make it last just by having the greatest bullpen, but if you can keep them fresh, then you've got a chance to be pretty special and, right now, they're as scary as anybody else. The Diamondbacks, they're also scary. They're playing great. They had the experience last year in the World Series, so they're starting to feel really good about their ballclub, and everybody wants to have an edge. Right now, the Padres feel like that edge starts in their bullpen.

Between the Diamondbacks and the Padres, which club do you like more? Who's built for a deeper playoff run?

That's a great question. The Padres are, right now, offensively more complete. But the Diamondbacks are scary. They just play reckless. They have this fearless approach to everything they do. It's kind of a toss up. Everyone was waiting to see when they would kind of start getting in a groove, and they've hit it the right time, and they're becoming scary again. It's no different than what happened last year.

I don't think anybody looked at the Diamondbacks as a real threat to get to the World Series, and all they did was knock off some giants and almost pulled off the amazing one of the greatest World Series wins ever would have been, in my opinion, but that experience helps. It's a toss up for me, because San Diego, it went healthy. Their offense is scary. It is scary in a different way, whereas the Diamondbacks, they want to create chaos on the bases. They have a different way of being scary.

The Giants kept Blake Snell, who proceeded to throw a no-hitter and has dominated since returning from the IL in July. When he is on, what makes him so unhittable?

Well, it's the blessing and the curse for him. His stuff is so nasty, it's hard to hit, but it's also hard for him to throw strikes, sometimes. His mechanics, maybe not the prototypical way you would teach, but he has disappearing pitches. When he can command his fastball, it's over. But when he gets in trouble, he just doesn't command his fastball well enough. He throws too many pitches. Next thing you know, he's in the fifth inning with 98 pitches. So, he's an interesting discussion because he can be so dominant, but, then he can be so frustrating because he himself knows that his stuff wins out over command, and if he's got both, then you're going to see what you saw the last two starts.

The Phillies have been one of the most complete teams all season, although it hasn't looked that way since the All-Star break. Have you seen anything during this recent slide that actually has you concerned about them?

A little bit offensively. They got a couple guys go cold, the pitching injuries have caught up a little bit, but they're also playing some pretty good teams in this stretch. They dominated their schedule, which is what you need to do when you're a good team. You dominate your schedule when it's out there for you to dominate, and they're in a tough stretch right now, it'll turn back around.

There'll be some games that give them the advantage, but they're just going through what every team in baseball has gone through. No one's been immune to it. There's been not one team that has run the gauntlet and avoided a losing streak of three games or more. They've played the Twins, Guardians, Yankees, Mariners and now Dodgers. They got the Diamondbacks next. That's a tough stretch to play in succession, so that's really what I see.

Do you think Bobby Witt Jr. or Gunnar Henderson have a real chance to challenge Aaron Judge for MVP in the American League?

I think so. It's probably a smaller percentage, but let's just say Bobby Witt continues and gets his team single-handedly, or at least the impression would be he helped them get to the postseason. Baltimore was supposed to be great, and they are, and Henderson is great, and he's certainly in the conversation. The difference for me would be the expectation of taking Kansas City to a place they haven't been in a while. If anyone were to challenge Judge, that's the way it has to be, a narrative like, if Witt doesn't hit .360 and 25-30 home runs, the Royals don't make the postseason. That's the kind of thing that would push him over the top.

Paul Skenes remains the clear front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year. Has any other rookie in particular stood out to you this year?

Well, I'm gonna stay into pitching, and Luis Gil for New York has been unbelievable. I don't know where they would be without him. He hit the skids a little bit, which is normal, but he's back on track. I just think pitching in New York under those circumstances as a rookie, nothing to take away from Pittsburgh. Paul Skeens could pitch anywhere in the universe and do fine, but the markets are diversely different, and I think that's the one thing that you got to take into consideration. If you can do that in New York as a rookie, that's pretty special.

Are you keeping an extra eye on Gil, knowing where he's at innings-wise, his velocity? What are you looking for from him down the stretch?

Yeah, the Yankees have to with the way guys are being brought up. Teams are in no man's land when it comes to pitching philosophy. It's so wrong, but I can say that till I'm blue in the face. It doesn't matter, I'm not part of making those decisions. But given the fact that they've been wrong, they're having to do the things they need to do to keep these guys afloat.

When you don't prepare for something like this to happen, when it happens on the watch of a historic season or potentially a World Series, then what do you do? You're kind of hamstrung. So they're going to have to watch those innings. They're going to say all the right things, but we all know that when you're asking pitchers to make major jumps in innings, when you don't prepare them to do the job they were prepared to do, then you have to deal with the compartmentalizing of this kind of philosophy.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB's lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network's marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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