Major League Baseball

Will Yankees lose Juan Soto? Dodgers' best trade target? 'Golden At-Bat' rule?

Updated Dec. 4, 2024 5:11 a.m. ET

We're in Week 5 of the Juan Soto sweepstakes, and with every report, the Yankees appear more vulnerable to losing him. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are rumored to be weighing potential trades for at least three stars.

Speaking of stars, Willy Adames isn't a household name but is by far the best free agent among shortstops. Where would he make the most impact? Pete Alonso is the top first baseman on the market, but will he be a better buy than Christian Walker? What position players and pitchers will be the steals of free agency?

FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner weigh in on those topics and more in our latest roundtable.

1. What potential trade target do you like best for the Dodgers: Cody Bellinger, Carlos Correa or Nolan Arenado?

Kavner: I’d rank them Correa, Arenado and then Bellinger. Correa — if the Dodgers and their fans can look past any lingering disdain from what transpired in 2017 — makes the most sense, even if outfield is the more pressing need with Teoscar Hernández hitting free agency and Mookie Betts supposedly moving back to the infield. The Dodgers moved on from Bellinger once when they thought his salary would no longer be commensurate with his value two years ago. I highly doubt their opinion changes now, with Bellinger set to earn $27.5 million in 2025 with a player option for 2026 after his power dipped and he hit just 11% better than league average in a more pedestrian 2024 season. There are more obvious fits for him elsewhere, where he can utilize his versatility and move between the outfield and first base. Plus, it’s easier for a team to patch together an outfield than it is to find an All-Star caliber everyday shortstop, which is something the Dodgers have lacked since letting Corey Seager and Trea Turner go and is now a bigger need than third base.

Arenado could get moved, and the Dodgers have long held interest in the eight-time All-Star, but they’d have nowhere to put Max Muncy after his strong 2024 season if they trade for Arenado and Betts is occupying second base. Plus, Correa was a more valuable player in 86 games last year (3.7 bWAR) than Arenado was in 152 (2.5) and Bellinger was in 130 (2.2). He has the most upside of this trio and would provide the Dodgers a lot more certainty in their infield. Miguel Rojas, Tommy Edman and Betts are capable of taking down innings at shortstop, but Betts is better suited at second, Edman graded out better in center than at shortstop last year, and the Dodgers have preferred to keep Rojas in a part-time utility role. They demonstrated last year they don’t need a prototypical everyday shortstop to win a World Series, but having one the caliber of Correa would certainly be a nice luxury.

Thosar: I'm going with Bellinger. Even beyond the sentimentality, the Dodgers will need Bellinger's expertise in the outfield if they don't bring Teoscar Hernandez back in free agency. The Cubs are reportedly looking to trade Bellinger after he exercised his $27.5 million player option for 2025, and that kind of financial cost is a big risk for a player who was beset by injuries in 2024 after a promising season in 2023. But the Dodgers know Belli best, and the former MVP is a better option than Correa (who is still hated in Los Angeles after his bad blood with the 2017 championship Astros) and Arenado (who's coming off his worst career season).

Arenado might want to be traded to the Dodgers, but do they want him? Max Muncy is signed through 2025, so they would have to shift him to second to accommodate the 10-time Gold Glove winner … but they also declared that Mookie Betts was returning to the infield next season. A reunion with Bellinger isn’t as risky or complicated as acquiring the other two trade targets.

2. Would you bet on the Yankees or The Field to sign Juan Soto? If the Yankees miss, what must they do to make this a successful offseason?

Thosar: The Yankees have to finish what they started and sign Juan Soto. They just have to, and the sky is falling if they don't. Giving Soto a blank check in free agency was always a possibility when they traded for him in the first place, and after he enjoyed his best career season in the Bronx and took the Yankees to the World Series, presenting Soto with an offer he can't refuse has become their only option to survive the offseason without angering the fan base. Soto was so clearly the missing piece for Aaron Judge's Yankees, and the hope would be that if he sticks around, they might close the gap against the almighty Dodgers.

It's hard to imagine a Soto-less Yankees team having anywhere close to the talent needed to win the American League pennant, let alone win it all, what with ace Gerrit Cole being a year older and Giancarlo Stanton on the verge of playing in his age-35 season. But landing Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez, and one of Pete Alonso/Christian Walker would qualify for a productive offseason … but the Yankees run the risk of seeing those impact players drop off the board while they wait it out for Soto.

Kavner: While Soto has to be the top priority for the Yankees (who remain among the few favorites to sign the unquestioned top player on the market), I’m going with the field, especially after hearing Hal Steinbrenner’s uncertainty following his meeting with Soto. If they don’t land him, they better get to work quickly trying to save the offense. A successful offseason would require at least two impact bats, one of which has to be a corner infielder. And even then, it might also take a difference-making starter to prevent bedlam in the Bronx.

One of Christian Walker or Alex Bregman would make a lot of sense, but Soto’s absence would also open a door in the outfield, where Teoscar Hernández or Anthony Santander linger as the top options behind Soto. A trade for someone such as Cody Bellinger, who can play both center and first, would also be in play. I want to make clear: keeping Soto is and should be the top priority. But if they could land two of those players and get Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, it might not fully make up for losing Soto, but it would provide plenty more optimism, help them save face and still cost less than what Soto will make.

3. Which team would Willy Adames make the biggest difference for? What would be your max offer for him?

Kavner: The San Francisco Giants. I have a hard time believing they won’t try to do something substantial to start the Buster Posey era, especially after their whiffs for big-ticket players in recent offseasons. Even if they do reduce payroll in 2025, as it sounds like they might, they have $30 million that they now won’t be paying Blake Snell next year. This is an offense that desperately needs a difference-making piece in the middle of the order to contend again, and the Giants could also use the help up the middle defensively.

Posey already made it clear at the GM meetings that finding a shortstop is a priority this winter, and Adames checks every box. He knocked in more runs than any shortstop in the majors this year, ranks third among all shortstops in homers over the past three seasons and plays plus defense. His presence would allow Tyler Fitzgerald to bump over to second base after his breakout rookie season. I’d expect Adames’ deal to look closer to Dansby Swanson’s than Trea Turner’s or Xander Bogaerts’. So, let’s say seven years, $182 million for my max offer.

Thosar: The Mets. Hear me out ... Adames is reportedly willing to change positions if the team is a good fit for him. Since Francisco Lindor will be holding it down at short for the Mets for the next seven years, Adames would make sense in New York at either third or second base — regardless of whether they sign Juan Soto and/or keep Pete Alonso in Queens. Without the Polar Bear, Mark Vientos will likely shift to first, and the Mets could use Adames at third. Even if Alonso is re-signed, then Vientos will presumably stay at third, and Adames can take over at second base while Jeff McNeil shifts to the outfield. If Soto becomes a Met, that could limit how much the front office is willing to spend on Adames. But since finances are abundant in Steve Cohen's neighborhood, signing Soto shouldn't entirely stop David Stearns and company from going for it.

Adames and Lindor could team up to create the top middle infield in the National League, rivaled only by the Rangers pairing of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien across MLB. Depending on how desperate teams are, I wouldn't go higher than $180 million, seven years for Adames, who set career highs in home runs (32), RBIs (112), and doubles (33) in his best major-league season in 2024. Realistically, I think he ends up signing in the $150-160 million range.

4. What’s the better buy: Pete Alonso for $160 million over six years or Christian Walker for $70 million over three years? Where’s the ideal landing spot for each player?

Thosar: Alonso. Even though that's probably one year too many for a potential Polar Bear deal, the fact that his future home is likely at designated hitter shouldn't entirely scare executives from agreeing to that deal. Alonso has power that few hitters possess in the major leagues, and he's been able to do it at a mostly consistent clip since his 2019 rookie season. Removing the shortened 2020 pandemic season, Alonso has hit at least 34 home runs every year, and Walker has crossed that threshold just once (36 home runs in 2022) since his first full season in 2019. Alonso is also four years younger than Walker, and has shown he can dominate in the toughest media market, too.

While Walker has been consistent in Arizona, it's entirely unknown if he can reproduce that production on a new team in a new city while entering his age-34 season. I still think Alonso makes the most sense on the Mets, with the Yankees being an ideal landing spot for Walker, who would be a solid replacement and upgrade over Anthony Rizzo.

Kavner: Walker. I think he’s one of the most underrated players in the game, and at 33, he’s demonstrating no signs of slowing down. In fact, his quality of contact numbers were considerably better in 2024 than they were in 2023. He was arguably MLB’s biggest All-Star snub this year after launching 22 homers in the first half, and even after his production dipped in the second half following an oblique issue, he still posted an OPS over .800 for the third straight year in his third straight Gold Glove season. Over those three years, he has been a more valuable player (10.8 fWAR) than Alonso (8.7), whose overall production has started to trend the wrong way.

Alonso can certainly still help a team that needs the pop, but a six-year, nine-figure deal for an inferior defender who has seen his batting average and on-base percentage decline the past two years would scare me. He’s a better bet to launch more homers than Walker over the next few years, as he has throughout his career, but I’m not sure what else he will reliably do better. Give me Walker for half the cost and time. Alonso in Houston and Walker in Seattle would make for great fits, though I’m not sure either will fork over the cash required to get them. Walker would be a great fit for the Yankees, too, so (going back to question No. 2) that’s a player they would probably need to be in on if they don’t get Soto.

5. Who is one position player and pitcher you predict will be a steal for the teams that sign them?

Kavner: Speaking of Walker, I’d expect him at his age to probably get a 2-3 year deal. For all the aforementioned reasons, I think he will be a steal in that shorter timeframe. There’s still a lot of juice in that bat — he has had an OPS+ over 120 in each of the past three seasons — and the elite defense provides a high floor.

For the pitcher, I assume it’s unfair to pick Roki Sasaki here (as long as he stays healthy, he should far outpace the capped salary he’s set to get as an international amateur). So, let’s go with Shane Bieber. It was an unfortunate situation for him injuring his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery right before free agency. That will surely depress the earnings on his next contract and add risk for any team signing him, but it also creates a fascinating buy-low opportunity on a former Cy Young Award winner who saw his strikeout rate skyrocket in two dazzling starts before being sidelined. It will require patience for any interested buyer, but the reward could be significant.

Thosar: Gleyber Torres and Walker Buehler. Torres was shrouded by superstars and the bright lights in the Bronx, getting heavily criticized (often, rightfully so) for misplays and sluggish decision-making in some of the Yankees' biggest moments. Though he had a down year in 2024, he's a two-time All Star, is only 27 years old, and has a career OPS+ of 112. It has always seemed like he would thrive in the right city, and I think he'll end up being an under-the-radar difference-maker for whatever club signs him.

As for Buehler, it looks like his revenge era is just getting started after the dominance he showed in big-time October and World Series moments for the Dodgers. He seems to operate with a chip on his shoulder after the injuries that sidelined him, and he found new ways to be effective with a nasty knuckle curveball even after his second Tommy John surgery took away some of his elite fastball prowess. Buehler seems like the perfect candidate to be a hidden gem.

Bonus: What do you make of MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred saying there is "buzz" around adding a "Golden At-Bat" rule that would allow teams to use anyone in their lineup for one at-bat per game, regardless of where they're at in the order?

Thosar: I had two words when I learned about the possibility of the golden at-bat: no thanks. This rule change would, in my opinion, mess with the integrity of baseball because it would minimize the importance of it being a team sport. Sending the best hitter to the plate in the game’s biggest moment takes away the opportunity for the supporting cast members to try and do something special and get their flowers. The unsung hero coming through is one of any sport’s most joyful moments. The idea that every hitter could be as critical to a team win would be negated. And then the possibility of intentionally walking Aaron Judge only for him to remain at the plate for a second straight at-bat because the Yankees would enact the golden rule is not only bizarre, it’s just plain weird. The golden at-bat rule just isn’t baseball. Hard pass.

Kavner: No thanks! For some background, this rule would allow a team to choose one at-bat in every game to send its best hitter to the plate, even if it wasn’t that player’s turn to hit. Fun idea, right? Sounds like something you and your buddies might throw around at the bar. If MLB wanted to do this in an All-Star Game setting, sure. I’m all for finding a way to spice that up in an otherwise inconsequential contest. But while I understand the effort to try to appeal to a bigger audience by finding ways to create more tension and make the game more compelling and exciting, this feels like a step too far. It’s a quick way to undo the progress made by some really great and beneficial rule changes in recent years and would fundamentally alter the game in a way that I think is too drastic.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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