Yankees Gary Sanchez Proves that The Force Has Awakened
With a combination of homegrown talent, an upcoming class of incredibly talented free agents, and the money to spend on them, the signs all point to a rapid return to dominance for the New York Yankees.
Gary Sanchez‘s historic success has prompted a debate. How sustainable is it? What kind of player will he be for the Yankees? Nothing about his career will be certain until he plays it, but the debater reveals the real significance of Gary Sanchez recent run. Briefly summarized: trouble for the other MLB teams for years to come.
The import of Sanchez’s success has nothing to do with his career or even any full season. No, all he has proven is that he can do what he did. What is important, though, is the watershed moment that is his arrival. It’s a flare, a signal that fans will look back on years, and championships, from now. It is the first significant sign that the Yankees are in the midst of creating a new championship empire.
Yankees fans have known for the last few years that the dark side of baseball was growing. We have watched as our best players grew old, losing their life force.
And what better sign of an ill-defined, somewhat phantom, menace to the universe than that the Red Sox have won three World Series titles in the last 90 years. The new millennium shudders. The last three years have been the nadir of the Yankees universe. But Sanchez arrival is proof that a new order is coming.
A long time ago in a board meeting far, far away
The powers at the center of the Yankees universe began to plan for this moment years ago and now it seems those plans are coming to fruition. Brian Cashman has had two objectives for almost a decade now.
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As long as the Core Four were around, he and the Steinbrenners knew they had pieces around which they could build a championship team. That is exactly what happened in 2009. They also knew you must have at least one star; wars for the back pages of the tabloids are intense in NYC. While those players were around, the only players that mattered were the big name ones who could help that year.
The other job was to grow a new, younger, more powerful team. As the previous team was formed around a homegrown nucleus, a new dedicated group of baseball world beaters must be found as younglings. Gary Sanchez is the first potentially powerful new player in the fight to restore order to the baseball universe. Remember, they signed him over seven years ago.
I am not saying he will play at this level for even a season or that he is on the path to any halls. No, his significance is not in what he will do but in what he has shown: he can carry a team for three weeks with his offense. One of those self-evident truths.
In a future October, with a better team, that type of production puts the Yankees either in the Series or in the Canyon of Heroes. For reference, see Reggie Jackson (the entire 1970s), Alex Rodriguez (2009), and Daniel Murphy last year. That is the real hope Mr. Sanchez has given Yankees fans.
A New Hope
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For Judge and Frazier, it could be prodigious power in bunches. Mateo might be able to run the Yankees to a title. Rutherford can do it all as he proved by his performances in last year’s international competition and for three weeks in Pulaski. He might never make The Show. He might not be able to dominate for one day. But if he does, he might one day repeat his burst of excellence for a championship.
Please note how often I used words like might and could.
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Also, there are prominent signs that the stars and planets have formed an alliance to facilitate the Yankees return as supreme leaders.
One, the Yankees are shedding payroll and opening roster spots. According to Spotrac, between this year and next, the salaries of CC, A-Rod, Tex, and Beltran all come off the books. That is over 80 million dollars.
The year after sees the departure of Gardy and Headley, along with their 26 million. When you throw in the roughly 19 million from players like Dustin Ackley, the Yankees are going to have a lot of money to spend.
One more significant sign: it is very likely that the luxury tax threshold will be raised from 189 million to 210 this off-season. That will make it much easier for the Yankees to spend some money this year and still get under the salary cap. Paying less in penalties will only make the Yanks more aggressive spenders in 2018.
The Empire Will Strike Back
Second is that the free agent class of 2018 looks to be one of the best in a long time. It is possible that pitchers such as Jose Fernandez, Clayton Kershaw, and David Price might all be available. It could include Zach Britton and Andrew Miller.
But pitchers are hard to predict. I looked over this article by the always great Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It lists Dallas Keuchel as one of the best lefties in the game and Matt Harvey as a top free agent. That is no longer true but could be again by 2018.
Position players are much easier. The potential for Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, and Yoenis Cespedes to all be free agents at the same time is
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mouthwatering. And there are so many others; read Joel’s piece for a more comprehensive list. And seemingly every member of the Royals becomes a free agent over the next three years.
Not all of these players will hit free agency but it seems likely that some, perhaps many, will. And when they do, the Yankees will have the money to make at least a few of them rebel against other teams’ offers.
Return of the Jedi(s)
The final piece must be farm talent. Here, again, we have reasons to hope. Cash and the Yankees front office finally realized that prospects are a guessing game. In the minors, having one or two guys you think can be great is not enough. Until players are in the majors, it is very difficult to predict who will become Andrew McCutchen and who will become Jeff Clement.
It is why they have not tried to just stock the farm system, they have focused on overloading it. We know about the international spending spree of 2014. We also know about the trades from this year. Guessing who will make it is especially difficult with young arms. That is why the Yankees have focused on adding as many as possible. That’s why they traded Justin Wilson—two arms for the price of one—and why they traded Ben Gamel.
But trading for high level prospects is just one of their approaches. Regularly, instead of trading players in the final year of their contracts mid-year for prospects who are not working out for another team, they are keeping them until the end of the season, making low-ball offers, and getting draft picks when they are signed by other teams.
Kyle Holder, for instance, came from the conditional pick for the loss of David Robertson. The thinking seems to be that it is better to wait longer for a player you believe in, rather than try to fix someone who is not working out because he is closer to the majors.
The Yankees are Strong in the Ways of the Force
Luck, perhaps the most powerful force in the baseball universe, seems to favor the Yankees here as well. All of these factors are coming together at the same time. We have already seen Bird and Sanchez look like good to very good players at the big league level. Didi Gregorius is already a good looking young shortstop.
This relieves the pressure on the minors. It seems very likely that two of their many infield prospects should work out. It could be Gleyber Torres, Mateo, Miguel Andujar, Refsnyder, Abiatal Avelino, Tyler Wade, or anyone named Garcia. The hope is that at least one will be serviceable and one be at least very good.
The same is true for the outfield and pitching. If just two of their top prospects work out—Judge, Frazier, Fowler, Cave, Rutherford, et al.–the Yankees could afford to bring in a top free agent to complete the trio.
The system might produce one or two aces in Domingo Acevedo and James Kaprelian. But even if they never come close to that, it does seem likely that two or three guys will pitch at the back end of the rotation. Along with those two, there is Chance Adams, Ian Clarkin, Luis Cessa, Chad Green, Dillon Tate and Dietrich Enns and too many to mention.
Right now, three of the Yankees 4 most expensive contracts are with position players. They will be much more powerful if they can reverse that and focus their money on front-line pitching.
Next We can Challenge the Klingons for Intergalactic Domination
It seems very likely that the Yankees will be able to produce homegrown talent for the next few years. They will also have money to spend on a parade of proven players over those same years. This new team will not have to be a clone of any other previous Yankees team. Any alliance will work as long as it has the right combination of young, homegrown players and free agents.
Of course none of this is written in the stars. It might not work and Girardi might still have number 28 on his back ten years from now. But if it does work, if the Yankees return to being the force in baseball, we will look back at Gary Sanchez’ historic run as the harbinger of a new dawn. The only question is: was that thing about the Klingons too much?
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