2022 NASCAR playoffs: Time for drivers on bubble to stress?
By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer
Chris Buescher admits that he just looked at where he sat in the point standings last week. But he figures that worrying about points isn’t all that productive early in the season.
"At this point in the season, it's about executing every time we go to the racetrack, trying to earn more stage points and get good finishes," he said.
"That's ultimately what we need to do. And if we can do that, the points will come with it. I know that's kind of just the very basic principle of it."
But at the same time, points are quite meaningful right now. Yes, the NASCAR Cup Series is just 10 races into the regular season, with 16 races remaining, but by this point in the year, the playoff picture tends to have taken much of its shape.
Chris Buescher discusses NASCAR playoff hopes
The 16-driver playoff field consists of the regular-season champion and the 15 drivers with the most wins, with ties broken by points. If there are more winners than spots available, regular-season point standings determine who gets in of the drivers with one win.
That said, so far there have never been more winners than spots, and a few drivers have made the playoffs on points every year. Those drivers tend to be above the playoff cutoff after 10 races.
In the five years since stage racing was implemented in 2017, no more than three drivers in any one season have rallied from outside the cutoff after 10 races to make the playoffs. And only four drivers who were outside the cutoff after 10 races made it solely on points:
* 2017: Matt Kenseth was 18 points behind the cutoff after 10 races and made it on points. Kasey Kahne and Austin Dillon qualified with wins.
* 2018: Chase Elliott got in with a win.
* 2019: William Byron (-12) and Kyle Larson (-17) got in on points. Erik Jones made it with a win.
* 2020: Byron and Cole Custer got in with wins.
* 2021: In the biggest rally via points, Tyler Reddick went from 37 points out to into the playoffs by a 30-point margin. Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola got in with wins.
Reddick was the first driver to rally from more than 20 points out to make the playoffs without a win. What worked for him?
"We just had to grind it out," he said. "The year got off to a pretty bad start. ... We just weren't finishing races. I was making mistakes, that sort of thing.
"We just really had to dig down and get back going, get back in rhythm, be consistent and get the best out of our days."
Reddick won't need to do quite as much rallying this year. He went from being on the brink of the playoffs — leading at the white flag and one lap away from the win at Bristol before Chase Briscoe wrecked him — to four points out following an engine failure last week at Talladega.
Tyler Reddick breaks down rally to 2021 NASCAR playoffs
The current playoff bubble is bigger at this point than it has been in the past. From 14th to 17th in the standings, just 11 points separate those on the edge: Kevin Harvick (+10), Dillon (+3), Christopher Bell (+1) and Reddick (-1).
What's more, seven drivers are within one race (60 points) of the bubble: Reddick (-1), Jones (-12), Busch (-25), Daniel Suarez (-25), Buescher (-47), Bubba Wallace (-50) and Justin Haley (-60).
Denny Hamlin, owner of the Busch and Wallace cars, isn’t telling his drivers they have to win to make the playoffs.
"In the past, there's been more consistent cars running up front every single week, where this year, it's a little bit more scattered," he said. "Our point leader has got, what, one top-5 [finish]?
"It’s all over the place right now. So I do think a team can get going good and make up enough points to get in, as long as you're not way back. But the easiest path, obviously, is winning."
Denny Hamlin sees a path to playoff for Kurt Busch, Bubba Wallace
Some would argue that winning is also the best way to show you can contend once the playoffs begin.
"We have to win," said Suarez, whose teammate Ross Chastain has two wins this year. "Getting in on points is OK, but to really deserve a spot in there, in my opinion, you have to win. And I think actually we're going to be able to do it.
"We still have a lot of races ahead of us. I feel like our team is not at the peak just yet. I feel like we keep getting better and better, getting lessons here and there."
Daniel Suarez on expectations to make NASCAR playoffs
Reddick and Dillon have to feel confident. Between them, they have three second-place finishes (Dillon at Fontana and Talladega; Reddick at Bristol dirt) in 10 races this year. Dillon, whose summer slump last year dropped him out of the playoff picture, has more top-5s this season (three) than he did in all of 2021 (one). That has him focused on a win but not stressing too much about his points position.
"We're in a better position overall as far as the speed that we're taking to the track," he said. "During that time frame [last year], we were consistent, but we didn't have the speed that we've had this year.
"So I feel pretty good. We’ve got to capitalize on stage points to make that big surge and focus on qualifying a little bit more and try to be consistent."
Austin Dillon on why he feels better about NASCAR playoffs this year
One driver who might have the most to lose, in a way, is Almirola, who already announced that this will be his last full season.
"It's important to me, it's important to my race team, it's important to our sponsors to go out on a high note," he said. "And you know, I want that.
"I've seen other guys leave the sport and their last year not be as much fun as they hoped just because the season didn't go well. And I hoped for that to not be the case for my last season."
Aric Almirola on mentality for rest of NASCAR regular season
As for the eight drivers with wins, they aren’t sweating much. Byron and Chastain, with two wins apiece, are locked in with no way of dropping out. Six other drivers have one win: Alex Bowman, Larson, Briscoe, Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Austin Cindric.
Hamlin could be in danger if there are more winners than spots, as he currently sits 60 points behind Cindric with the fewest points among those with wins.
"We can’t just go all-out and not care about points because points are certainly important, but it’s also important for lining you up in the playoff picture beforehand," Cindric said.
"So I’m not sure it changes much, other than some days could maybe be more pressure-filled, but a lot of the best ways to cancel that out is to win another race."
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What to watch for
The last time NASCAR went to Dover, Hendrick Motorsports strutted out of there with a 1-2-3-4 finish.
Don’t expect that this time because, well, that isn't something anyone should ever expect.
The Hendrick drivers should be good, but the ones to watch will be the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers. It hasn’t been the easiest week off the track for the organization, but JGR drivers have thrived at Dover. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have three Cup wins apiece at Dover, Hamlin won there in August 2020, and Christopher Bell has two Xfinity wins at the track.
Thinking out loud
NASCAR ordered Hamlin to undergo sensitivity training and start the process this week after an insensitive Twitter post directed at his friend Larson, who is of Japanese descent.
Hamlin was attempting to make light of Larson’s move on the last lap at Talladega that caused a crash that left Hamlin’s 23XI Racing team with two trashed race cars.
Hamlin’s post combined a meme from a "Family Guy" episode of an Asian woman driver (with Larson’s name imposed on the screen) saying she isn’t going to use her turn signal and for everyone to watch out.
Hamlin combined the clip with video of the crash. He later deleted the tweet and posted an apology.
NASCAR, which is trying to grow the sport and promote an inclusive and accepting environment, made the right decision in this case.
NASCAR is not in the comedy show business or the arts, where more latitude might be given for expression. It is a sport in which its athletes are ambassadors, and with that comes a responsibility to not insult the fan base. And that clip is offensive enough that if you pull up that 2006 episode from the archives on Hulu, it has been replaced.
Hamlin’s post embraced a stereotype that demeans people. For that, sensitivity training is a good reminder that what one person sees as humor, another might see as insulting and painful.
Social spotlight
They said it
"We could suck at Dover this weekend. Both cars could suck. The competition is out there to crush you every single week. That's kind of how we think." — Trackhouse owner Justin Marks, whose organization has two wins this year
Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!
Hendrick Motorsports Joe Gibbs Racing
