4 key storylines to follow for Talladega mayhem
The math for today’s Hellman’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway couldn’t get any simpler.
Twelve drivers go into the race still in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Just eight will come out of the race with their title hopes intact.
Of those 12, only Charlotte winner Jimmie Johnson and Kansas winner Kevin Harvick are guaranteed to advance to the Chase Round of 8, which starts next week at Martinsville Speedway.
That means 10 drivers are fighting for the last six spots in the Round of 8.
At any other track, you might point out that Austin Dillon, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott are the four drivers currently outside the top 10.
Or that Matt Kenseth has a 29-point margin over ninth place, so he and several other drivers close to him ought to be safe in terms of advancing.
But this is Talladega, where the prospect of a huge multi-car accident -- a/k/a “The Big One” can take out half the field at any given moment. No one is safely in the Round of 8, except Johnson and Harvick.
Everyone else -- drivers, crew chiefs, teams and fans alike -- will be on pins and needles of 188 white-knuckle laps.
You can look at statistical data such as average finish, top fives, top 10s and the like, but the predictors are probably less accurate here than anywhere else.
That said, here are the four key storylines for today’s Hellman’s 500 at Talladega:
How many Toyotas advance?
Five of the 12 remaining drivers are Toyota pilots: Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch for Joe Gibbs Racing, and Martin Truex Jr. for Furniture Row Racing. JGR leads the series with 11 race victories this year, but the team is 0-for-5 in the Chase.
Can Team Penske survive?
Right now, Team Penske is on shaky ground. Joey Logano is eighth in points, the last driver inside the cutoff, and Brad Keselowski is 11th. But Keselowski has won the last two restrictor-plate races this season, and facing elimination in the race two years ago, he won. Then there’s the fact that Logano won this race last year. This could be a boom-bust day for The Captain and his minions.
Will Chase Elliott advance?
The only driver who absolutely must win today is Chase Elliott, who had fast cars but rotten luck in the first two races of this round, resulting in two finishes outside the top 30. With Hendrick teammate Johnson locked into the Round of 8, expect Elliott and Johnson to work together in the race to get the No. 24 to the front.
When will the Big One happen?
We know there will be at least one huge multi-car accident today involving a dozen or more cars. What we don’t know is when it will happen or who will be knocked out of the Chase as a result. But it’s going down sometime. You can count on that.
