Analyzing the Championship 4: Why each driver will or won't claim Cup Series title
The NASCAR youth movement has totally arrived.
The four drivers who will compete for the NASCAR Cup Series title have an average age of just under 29 years old, the second consecutive year that the Championship 4 average age is under 30. For comparison, the average of the four finalists was at least 33 in the first seven years of this format.
Kyle Larson, at age 31, is the elder statesman. He's also the only one with a championship. And Christopher Bell, the only other driver who has Championship 4 experience, is 28.
Bell and Larson each have been part of the Championship 4 once. The other two — 29-year-old Ryan Blaney and 25-year-old William Byron — are making their first appearances in the final round where they have a shot at the title.
The driver among those four who finishes the best at Phoenix Raceway will win the title. In the nine years of the elimination one-race championship format, the winner of the final race has always been one of the four championship-eligible drivers.
Here's a look at the four drivers who will compete for the title on Sunday, listed in order by their seeding, which is based on their finishes in the semifinal round:
Ryan Blaney
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
2023 season: 3 wins (Charlotte, Talladega-Oct, Martinsville-Oct), 8 top-5s, 0 poles, 560 laps led
Last 3 Phoenix finishes: March 2023-2nd; Nov. 2022-2nd; March 2022-4th
Championship 4 experience: None
Why He Will Win Title: He has arguably been the best car in the past five weeks with two wins, a second and a sixth. He possibly could have won Phoenix last year but with teammate Joey Logano ahead of him and going for the title, he wasn't going to make any move that would have any remote possibility of contact with Logano. He also has a championship organization to lean on, including the playbook from Logano's championship run in 2022.
Why He Won't: It's his first time in the Championship 4, and while he hasn't made the mistakes that mired playoff runs in the past, he has made them in previous years. Plus, the Fords, in general, have been inconsistent this year.
Blaney Says: "The track's been good for us. We were good there last fall, pretty good in the spring. The other three teams we're going against, they're fantastic, too. They've got their stuff together. That's why they're in this position. We just have to bring our best stuff and execute really well and just see where it brings us. We know it's going to be tough, but I think we're up for the challenge."
Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
2023 season: 2 wins (Bristol dirt, Homestead), 10 top-5s, 6 poles, 599 laps led
Last 3 Phoenix finishes: March 2023-6th; Nov. 2022-10th; March 2022-26th
Championship 4 experience: 2022-3rd (of the 4)
Why He Will Win Title: Bell has a knack of when things appear to not be going well, he finds a way to get the job done. Part of that is his crew chief, Adam Stevens, who has won two Cup titles with Kyle Busch and has made the Championship 4 in seven of the last nine years. He'll also have the entire focus of Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota as their only finalist.
Why He Won't: Flat short tracks haven't been the kindest to Bell. And Phoenix is not one of his best tracks. How so? He has never led a lap in a Cup race at Phoenix. He likely will have to — and lead many of them — in order to capture the title.
Bell Says: "I know that we are going to be way more competitive than we were last year. A never-give-up attitude that this 20 team has I think will be an advantage for us."
Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
2023 season: 4 wins (Richmond-April, Martinsville-April, Darlington-Sept., Las Vegas-Oct.), 14 top-5s, 2 poles, 1,127 laps led
Last 3 Phoenix finishes: March 2023-4th; Nov. 2022-9th; March 2022-34th
Championship 4 experience: 2021-1st
Why He Will Win Title: Larson has led the most laps of any driver this year, and that doesn't include his domination in the all-star race. He has been fast at just about every type of track. He — and maybe more importantly, crew chief Cliff Daniels — have had the most time to work on Phoenix as their win to open the semifinal round gave them two weeks of not worrying too much about their finishes the last two weeks.
Why He Won't: Larson has wrecked six times this year while leading or battling for the lead, and that doesn't include the recent race at Homestead when he misjudged the entry to pit road behind a slowing Ryan Blaney and plowed into the sand barrels at the front of the wall that separated pit road and the track. Needless to say, they haven't always finished where they deserved. And in a one-race championship-race format, that isn't the best thing.
Larson Says: "We were OK (there) last year — we were decent on the long run, not great on the short run. In the spring, we were good on the short run, not very good on the long run. I don't know what we'll have going there, but regardless, we've had speed. The 12 [of Blaney] has been super good the last two-and-a-half months or so, so I think he'll be the one to beat. But we're in the final four, so we've got a shot."
William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
2023 season: 6 wins (Las Vegas-March, Phoenix-March, Darlington-May, Atlanta-July, Watkins Glen, Texas-Sept.), 14 top-5s, 3 poles, 921 laps led
Last 3 Phoenix finishes: March 2023-1st, Nov. 2022-6th; March 2022-18th
Championship 4 experience: None
Why He Will Win Title: His six victories, including at Phoenix earlier this year, didn't come by luck. He has been fast throughout the year. In the playoffs, he has five top-5 finishes in nine races. He hasn't led as many laps as Larson, but his (and his team's) execution of races this year has been better than the rest of the field.
Why He Won't: Byron enters Phoenix coming off two disappointing races. He was a tick off at Homestead and then way off at Martinsville. Good thing neither track compares to Phoenix but whether he has lost a little bit of swagger could be a detriment as he is about to experience his first Championship 4.
Byron Says: "I think we can be really good. I haven't really looked ahead too much. I'm excited to go to work this week and figure out what we need for Phoenix and go get after them."
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass, and sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass.
