NASCAR Cup Series

Cup drivers enter desperation mode heading into stretch run

Updated Apr. 27, 2023 2:46 p.m. ET

Ten races into the season, and some drivers probably don’t want to look at the NASCAR Cup Series standings.

Those drivers probably don’t need to look. They know they have to win.

With 16 races left until the NASCAR playoff field is set, there certainly is time to make a move. But the 10-race mark can show who is in desperation mode

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The 16-driver NASCAR playoff field consists of the regular-season champion plus the next 15 drivers based on wins with ties broken by points. If there are more winners than spots, then the one-win drivers with the fewest points don’t make the playoffs.

That’s never happened, though, as there has always been at least one spot for a winless driver based on points.

Drivers, though, don’t want to rely on points.

"NASCAR has made the series into a must-win anyway," said Austin Dillon, who made it into the 2022 playoffs by winning the regular-season finale at Daytona.

"Points aren’t really an option. ... It’s kind of a must-win to make a good season."

Last year, only two drivers on the outside of the cutoff after 10 races made the playoffs — Tyler Reddick and Daniel Suarez, both who won races. Kurt Busch also would have made the playoffs if he was not injured.

The two drivers who were in after 10 races but dropped out were Martin Truex Jr. and Aric Almirola. Both of whom went through the regular season winless and were ranked 12th and 13th in the standings after 10 races.

Suarez (11 points behind the current cutoff behind the current last-driver-in Chris Buescher), Austin Cindric (27 points behind), Dillon (117 points behind) and Chase Elliott (120 points behind but missed six races because of injury) are the four playoff drivers from last year who currently are on the outside looking in.

'He knows he's got to win'

Richard Childress discussed the sense of urgency for Austin Dillion to get a win this season.

"You start the season out in desperation mode," said Dillon’s team owner, Richard Childress. "That's the way we always look at this deal.

"He knows now he's got to win. We know we've got to get a win for him. We'll be digging extra hard to get him there."

Three drivers currently are guaranteed spots in the playoffs with two wins — Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch and William Byron.

Another four drivers — Christopher Bell, Reddick, Joey Logano and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. — have all but guaranteed spots as long as there aren’t more winners than spots.

Ross Chastain, Kevin Harvick and Truex are the only winless drivers more than 50 points ahead of the current cutoff. Alex Bowman will miss at least the next three races with a broken back and likely will fall behind the cutoff as he has just a 41-point cushion.

Truex, Stenhouse, and RFK Racing drivers Brad Keselowski (38 points ahead of the cutoff) and Buescher (11 points ahead) are drivers who didn’t make the playoffs last year who currently are above the cutline. Only Stenhouse has a win, and those who hope to get in on points know their position is precarious.

Some drivers already have gone from thinking must-win to knowing there might be a shot on points. Chase Briscoe was 32nd in the standings after three races, but he improved to 21st after seven races and then with three consecutive top-10 finishes, he’s now 15th overall — 14 points ahead of the cutoff.

Bubba Wallace, who is currently 49 points behind the cutoff, saw one of his best chances to win end with a crash as his block went awry on the final lap at Talladega Superspeedway. The last two races of Martinsville and Talladega and the next two of Dover and Kansas are among his best tracks. He won at Kansas last September.

'Great day for us, just a crap result'

Bubba Wallace shared his thoughts on what happened in the big wreck with Ryan Blaney during the final laps at Talladega.

"Are you already putting me in desperation mode?" Wallace said prior to Martinsville. "[Our points position] is not good, but we have plenty of opportunities. I know that we can do it, that we can get there.

"The biggest competition I have is myself and if I can beat him, we should win."

Elliott also has taken the mindset that he has to win a race. He won’t bother looking at the points for at least a little while.

"We’re a deserving team to be a part of the playoffs and I think we’re a strong enough team to make a run and race for a championship," Elliott said.

"I hate that I put them in the position that I have. ... We certainly recognize that points probably aren’t going to work on a driver’s side – on the driver’s side it’s going to be tough to do without a win."

Having that view of not being able to make it on points is in some ways liberating for teams. They potentially can take more chances or not have to worry about earning stage points during an event. In some ways, it opens the door for different strategies.

"Having that goal set in front of you is kind of fun," Elliott said. "It’s very simple. It’s pretty straightforward in what we need to go do. It’s a different feeling than what it’s been, but we’re really embracing it as a group and I’ve embraced it from my end.

"I’m kind of excited about the challenge. It’s kind of unique and kind of fun – either win and you’re in or you don’t and you fail. I kind of like it."

Can Elliott qualify for playoffs?

The "NASCAR Race Hub" crew debates over a few hot topics about the season so far, including Chase Elliott's playoff hopes.

What To Watch For

Dover has the same tire as a year ago, which means that drivers could be fighting some tire issues this year just as last year, especially if the track has no rubber on it thanks to the possibility of rain during the weekend.

While the track is a short track in the sense it is a 1-mile oval, drivers have more speed at this track thanks to the significant banking. There also is a slight elevation change that has them carrying additional speed.

So the drivers do not have the "short track" package with minimal downforce. Instead, they have the same package as last year with the downforce in order to lessen the chance of just spinning out on their own.

Chase Elliott won this race a year ago and likely will be a factor. He led a race-high 73 laps. But Denny Hamlin led 67 and was in control of the race until a wheel fell off as he exited pit road.

Kyle Busch also will be one to watch. He led 103 laps a year ago on his way to a seventh-place finish.

Thinking Out Loud

Alex Bowman was injured in a sprint-car crash Tuesday night and will miss at least three weeks with a compression fracture to one of his vertebrae.

Bowman was racing one of the fastest cars around, one with a 410 cubic inch engine. He has raced these occasionally over the last couple of years and his roots are in sprint car and midget racing.

Some teams, such as Joe Gibbs Racing, don’t allow their drivers to race such high-powered vehicles. Hendrick Motorsports also has a history of frowning on it.

But when Kyle Larson came to Hendrick in 2021 and with NASCAR changing to weekends with limited practice, Hendrick (possibly with the urging of Jeff Gordon) relented on that policy.

Even though practice minimally increased in 2022, there is a theory that because drivers get only 20 minutes in the car on a race weekend prior to the race, racing outside the Cup Series is a good thing for drivers to keep their racing skills sharp.

Is it a risk? Yes, it is. But so is practice in any sport. It might be smart for drivers to limit their extracurricular racing activities about a month before the playoffs begin to reduce the risk of missing a race during the playoffs.

Weekly Power Rankings

They Said It

"I’m feeling OK. My focus is now on healing and resting." —Alex Bowman after suffering a broken vertebra.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass, and sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass.

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