Daytona takes center stage as drivers duke it out for final NASCAR playoff spots
By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer
Racing at Daytona can be described as competing in a high-speed chess match.
But the only way that description works is if, at some point, each player is required to make an aggressive move with the chess pieces.
How aggressive? Well, that could depend on how badly a driver needs to win.
Going into the last race of the regular season Saturday at Daytona International Speedway, there are 15 drivers who know they will make the playoffs, 15 drivers who could advance to the playoffs with a victory and 10 drivers who would love to win just for the trophy.
"You’ve got to be really calculated in what you do and not so much desperate," said Matt DiBenedetto, who must win to make the playoffs.
"You are desperate inside, but as far as how you race that race, it’s a more calculated approach, and I think you can look at those races, and you can watch, and you can truly see the people that really study and really put so much effort into those races and are calculated in every decision that you make, and it has shown."
Of the 15 drivers who would advance to the playoffs with a win, only two — Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon — could earn a playoff spot without a win. If a driver who has already earned a playoff spot wins, the final playoff spot will come down to Reddick and Dillon, with Reddick holding a 25-point edge going into the final race.
Reddick can look back to a year ago, when he made a move trying to get in position to win and caused a wreck that ended his race, as well as those of five other drivers.
"I played a big part in that excitement in the last Daytona cutoff race," Reddick said. "I think you’ll expect to see drivers that were as desperate as I was in that race to try and get up front and get control of the race and win for their team and all their partners.
"It’s just going to be a matter of trying to have an understanding in the back of your head or have a point that you kind of have within yourself. Like, ‘OK, this is my fun meter. If we can stay within, we’re good.’"
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Last year, William Byron entered that race winless, was on the bubble by just four points and won the race to secure a playoff spot. This year, he said his view is to go out and just have fun.
"There’s not a lot of pressure involved [this year]," said Byron, who clinched a spot early with a win in March at Homestead. "I don’t envy the position of the other guys that are in that position to try to … either they have to win, or they’re right there on the bubble for the points. It’s a tough position to be in."
Chris Buescher, who is in that position, agrees. He indicated that he hates to block on tracks such as Daytona and Talladega, yet he knows he likely will have to if he wants any chance to win and advance the playoffs.
How far is he willing to go? He frankly says he doesn’t know yet.
"I don’t know where my cutoff is, so to speak," Buescher said. "I’m usually pretty aggressive with trying to make moves, but I’m also not the most aggressive with trying to block moves.
"That came through my upbringing in racing. If you got blocked, you took care of that person really quickly, and if you blocked, you got sent very quickly as well. ... It’s been a little bit tough for me to be able to adapt on throwing the blocks, so that is something I would say is going to have to step up and be more aggressive with."
The 15 drivers who are racing under a win-and-in scenario are Reddick, Dillon, Buescher, DiBenedetto, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Chase Briscoe, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Ryan Newman, Ryan Preece, Cole Custer, Corey LaJoie and Anthony Alfredo.
DiBenedetto has to cringe seeing himself on this list. In April, he was leading going into the last lap at Talladega before he moved from the low side to the high side to block Ryan Blaney, and Brad Keselowski used a push from the inside lane to pass DiBenedetto and eventually win the race. DiBenedetto was left empty as the high lane failed to get the momentum and broke apart as drivers tried to make moves.
While Daytona races a little bit differently because the track is more narrow, DiBenedetto will have to study those final laps in preparation for Daytona.
"I’ve got to go back and be mentally tough and be like, ‘OK, let’s go back and watch,’ even though it’s heartbreaking and really painful to watch anytime you lose a race when you’re leading on the white flag coming off Turn 4," DiBenedetto said.
Coming off Turn 4 heading to the white flag for the final lap is where a playoff-or-bust decision will be made.
Chastain has the sour memory of the Xfinity race a year ago, when he had a wreck with teammate AJ Allmendinger while going for the win on the final lap. Their teammate Justin Haley won, but it wasn’t one of Chastain’s best moments.
"I don’t want to cause a big wreck," Chastain said. "I’ve done that. I’m trying to learn from it. I used to get really freaked out and worried and stressed about superspeedway races, but I’ve just realized over my 10 years in the sport .... we’re all going to crash.
"We’re all going to get backward in the grass at 200 mph at some point. You make it. [Or] go home. No desperation. I just want to win and compete in this series. So whatever happens there happens."
Reddick swears he isn't stressing — much.
"It is stressful because it is something that is somewhat out of your hands," Reddick said. "You can only control what you can. ... We can’t even really control or predict or even waste the energy predicting how other teams are going to go into Daytona and how they’re going to run."
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What to watch for
Denny Hamlin has won three Daytona 500s but has never won the summer race. With him needing as many points as possible in hopes of winning the regular-season title, look for him to have similar urgency to those trying to make the playoffs.
Among those drivers, four have won a Cup race at Daytona: Dillon, Stenhouse Jr., Newman and Erik Jones. They all have had strong performances at Daytona in recent years.
The big question is how the change in the size of the holes of the tapered spacer (from 57/64ths of an inch to 53/64ths of an inch), which will sap the cars of about 60 horsepower (from 510 to 450) and potentially 7-10 mph, will impact the cars. There also will be wicker (bill) on the rear spoiler.
The idea is that by decreasing speeds, the runs won’t be as dramatic, and drivers could have additional reaction time. In addition, at slower speeds, there is less of a chance (but obviously still a chance) for cars to get airborne.
Thinking out loud
Chase Elliott crew chief Alan Gustafson is a favorite target of those on social media on any day when Elliott has trouble.
At Michigan last week, Gustafson pitted Elliott under caution shortly after they had pitted under green, costing the driver track position. Gustafson didn’t say it on the team radio, but it seems that loose lug nuts required him to call Elliott down pit road.
The Elliott team has been mired with a DQ this year for multiple loose lug nuts, a big penalty for having one of Elliott’s race-winning engines used by Alex Bowman for its second race instead of Elliott, as required by rule for race-winning engines. They also had another points penalty for a Watkins Glen tech infraction.
Certainly Gustafson has some responsibility, with the Glen infraction for the rear window deflector the issue. He also bears responsibility for some of the strategy calls. But he deserves little blame for the engine or pit-crew woes, as big teams have separate engine departments and pit crew departments that take care of those areas.
Gustafson is a veteran crew chief who has a history of winning races with several drivers. His teams typically have fast race cars. He doesn’t get rattled on pit road. Does he occasionally choose a strategy that doesn’t work out? Yes.
Is that big enough to make a change? No. Elliott is happy with Gustafson, and they have been through the ups and downs together. They have confidence in each other, and with the Next Gen car, that will be way more critical than anything else.
Next Up: Next Gen
The most recent test of the Next Gen car was with one car from each manufacturer Tuesday through Thursday at Richmond, a 0.75-mile track. The test was designed for manufacturers to gather data for their simulation programs.
The next test is likely going to be a Goodyear tire test next month at Daytona, with the number of cars still to be determined.
Social spotlight
They said it
"I’m not losing a lot of sleep. When you have the most important moments of your year or of your life coming up, the last thing you should do is not be sleeping and be worrying yourself to death." — Tyler Reddick on being on the playoff bubble
Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!
