Drivers face crucial decisions as Cup Series playoffs reach climax
By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer
At every race at Daytona or Talladega, a driver must make choices on the best driver to push or get a push from when trying to get to the front in the aerodynamic draft.
But the playoff race on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway can make that choice even tougher, especially for a playoff driver: Do you help another playoff driver get to the front or do you hang that playoff driver out to dry?
With 11 drivers vying for seven spots in the next round, and with two races left in the current Round of 12, helping one of the 30 other drivers they aren’t battling for one of those spots would seem like the smart thing to do.
Going a step further, why push a driver who might not make it out of this round but is strong at the championship-deciding track at Phoenix when a win at Talladega could be just what that opposing driver needs to have a much better shot at the championship?
In other words, there could be incentive for drivers to keep one of their playoff opponents from winning as much as the incentive is for winning themselves. Take for instance Joey Logano, who is just six points above the cutline. He’s solid at Phoenix, so if a playoff opponent hangs him out to dry in the draft, it potentially could keep him from advancing to the semifinal round (and therefore out of Phoenix).
The same is true for Brad Keselowski, who is four points up on the cutoff, and Kevin Harvick, who is seven points below the cutoff.
If it sounds complicated, it is. Four drivers get eliminated after the current Round of 12 (quarterfinal round) and then another four after the Round of 8 (semifinal round). There is a lot of racing left.
And the drivers are not going to try to process all of that in the moment. They are going to work among their own manufacturer the most and see where things land.
With only five Toyotas in the field, Martin Truex Jr. knows he might need to try to rely on someone from another manufacturer. He isn’t going to care whether it is someone he is battling for a spot in the next round.
"Honestly, at the end of the day, you hope you are running at the finish and you are going to do whatever is best for you," Truex said. "So, I don’t know if you are going to make a move necessarily on who’s around you if they are in the playoffs or not, you are going to do whatever is in your best interest to get you the best result you can get."
Logano said he will just rely on his Ford brethren (which include his Penske teammate Keselowski and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Harvick) and will let the chips fall.
"It’s too hard to try to manage all that," Logano said about trying to figure out who would be the best to help when looking toward the future. "You have to keep it a little more broad and open than that."
For those not in the playoffs, they will do what they normally do at Daytona and Talladega.
"You want to stay fairly well committed to your [manufacturer] partners," said Spire driver Corey LaJoie.
The other decision for playoff drivers will be whether they try to race up front early in the event. The best strategy at Daytona and Talladega, at times, has been to wait near the back of the field until the finish.
But drivers on the bubble – Logano, Keselowski, William Byron (four points outside the cutoff), Harvick, Alex Bowman (13 points outside the cutoff) and Christopher Bell (25 points outside) – need those points.
"You’re going to have to do that," Logano said. "It seems to be maybe a little bit more calmer going for stage points, ... but we’ve also seen the crashes very early in the race.
"In our position, I think you’re going to have to race for stage points."
Logano’s biggest concern isn’t his strategy. It’s fate.
"It is stressful because your whole season can be decided this weekend, and that may be somewhat out of your control," Logano said. "Some of it is in your control in the decisions you make and your strategy."
One driver who has nothing to worry about when it comes to stage points nor the playoffs is Denny Hamlin, whose victory to open the round at Las Vegas gives him an automatic bid to the next round. He is the defending winner of the Talladega playoff race.
"It’s a free pass to go there and try to lead every lap, win the race," Hamlin said. "Last year we were so fortunate because we had a good Las Vegas race, a lot of bonus points, we were able to lay in the back the entire race.
"We were 29th, 23rd or something on the first green-white-checkered, then won the race. ... It’s another week where there's nothing to lose, all to gain."
One of the difficulties in predicting how playoff drivers could race on Sunday comes down to this is the first race with horsepower reduced at Talladega from 510 to 450 and with the removal of the wicker on top of the rear spoiler. This aero package debuted in August at Daytona in hopes of decreasing the chances of cars getting airborne.
"There’s some thoughts that we’ll see some tandem racing," Keselowski said. "I’m not totally caught up on that yet. Overall, I thought the racing was pretty good at Daytona.
"It was a little bit less of a crash-fest for most of the race than most people thought it would be, so that’s good. Ultimately, I don’t expect a big difference though."
Playoff meter
What to watch for
For fans who are used to seeing drivers making blocks while in the lead, this will be an interesting case study. The change in the aero package from the last Talladega race has resulted in slower speeds and runs that seemed to be slightly slower as well.
The cars are still bunched up and the big one likely will happen as Daytona proved last month, but there could be more time to block some of the runs than in the most recent races at Talladega.
That could be good or bad. The leader could have more control of his destiny. But it also could give the leader more confidence than he should have and lead to a major pileup.
It’s the last race with these cars at Daytona or Talladega, so the one thing drivers will know is that they don’t have to worry about saving the car for another race.
Thinking out loud
NASCAR announced the Xfinity and the truck schedules for 2022 with several changes.
On the Xfinity side, the Portland International Raceway road course has been added. That is a good move, as it gives NASCAR a national series presence in the Pacific Northwest for the first time in more than 20 years. NASCAR moved the race from Mid-Ohio to Portland and replaced that Xfinity race with a truck event.
On the truck side, in addition to adding Mid-Ohio, NASCAR added races at Lucas Oil Raceway (Indianapolis Raceway Park), Sonoma and a second race at Kansas. It removed Canadian Tire Motorsport Park and Watkins Glen.
The return to IRP will be welcome, as the race is the Friday night of the Cup weekend at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Adding Sonoma and another race at Kansas are fine, but not including the Canadian stop on the schedule is frustrating.
NASCAR Vice President Ben Kennedy said the travel restrictions amid the pandemic and lead time needed to plan that event – with all the border preparations – made it too uncertain to plan to have a race there in 2022. That makes sense considering teams have to plan budgets and sponsors based on the schedule, but it still seems a little early to bail on the Canadian track for all of 2022.
Next Up: Next Gen
Drivers are gearing up for a test on the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course that will occur Oct. 11-12 following the race weekend. It will be one car or two cars per organization, with organizations that have three or more teams getting a second car with certain limitations as far as how much data can be gathered.
Most drivers will get their first extensive experience with the car on a road course. The car is designed to handle better on road courses than the current Cup car.
Drivers have reiterated the hope that there could be some work done to relieve the amount of heat in the cockpit.
"You have your exhaust heat coming from the bottom and hot air coming from [out of the hood through] the sides – it’s just a hot box," said driver Joey Logano, who participated in the Daytona test and will be at the Charlotte road course test.
"Ten laps at Daytona was hotter than I have ever had in a race car at that point. Everything just gets warm. The rollbars are warm when you pull yourself out. ... They’ll do something to make it better. They can’t leave it the same way it is. They’ll do something and it will be interesting to see what it is."
Social spotlight
They said it
"We definitely don’t plan on that happening. Your number just pops up sometimes." – Martin Truex Jr. on having to start at the rear last week for inspection failures
Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!
