NASCAR's 16-driver playoff field is set: Who will win?
By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer
Sixteen drivers. Ten races. Win and advance. Every point counts.
Welcome to the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
The playoffs begin Sunday with the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, and as drivers enter the eighth year of this format, they know surprises can happen.
They have seen favorites such as Kevin Harvick not even make it to the final round. They've also seen drivers who had not won in months capture the title, as Kyle Busch did in 2019, when he snapped a 21-race winless streak and hoisted the trophy.
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The 16 drivers in the playoffs all have had their points reset to 2,000, plus the playoff points they earned during the season — five points for a win, one point for a stage win and points for a top-10 finish in the final regular-season standings on a 15-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scale.
Then this is how it works (non-playoff drivers also compete in the races):
Round of 16 (opening round): Races at Darlington, Richmond and Bristol. Four drivers are then eliminated, the four winless drivers in the round who are lowest in the points. For the remaining 12 drivers, points are then reset to 3,000, plus all playoff points earned during the year.
Round of 12 (quarterfinal round): Las Vegas, Talladega and Charlotte road course. Again, the four winless drivers in the round who are lowest in the points are eliminated. Points are then reset for the remaining eight to 4,000, plus all playoff points earned during the year.
Round of Eight (semifinal round): Texas, Kansas and Martinsville. For a third time, the four winless drivers in the round who are lowest in the points are eliminated. Points are then reset for the remaining four to 5,000 (no playoff points added).
Championship: Phoenix. The four drivers do not get stage points during the championship race, so the highest finisher ends up with the most points and the championship.
Here’s an attempt to handicap the 16 drivers in order of championship contention:
Final Four-bound
Kyle Larson (seed: 1): The Hendrick Motorsports driver has the most wins (five) and the most playoff points (52), as he won the regular-season title. He has led 1,566 laps — more than double that of any other driver in the series. The only stat that should concern him is that he has won only one race in the playoffs in his career. Yes, wild things can happen, but Larson is a virtual lock for the championship.
Final Four contenders
Denny Hamlin (seed: 7): It is weird to see Hamlin seventh in the standings, considering that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver spent the entire season either first or second, thanks to 13 top-5s (second overall) this year. The problem is that he hasn’t won a race. Then again, even if he doesn’t win, consistent top-5s will get him to the third round and likely the championship. If he gets to the championship, this will be the storyline: Hamlin, entering his 15th appearance in the NASCAR postseason (it has had several formats since its inception in 2004), is the only driver with more than 10 appearances and no title.
Chase Elliott (seed: 5): The defending Cup champion entered the 2020 playoffs in a similar position. His only wins this year have come on road courses, but he still has 11 top-5s. Those have come on all styles of tracks, and the fact that Elliott and crew chief Alan Gustafson proved that they can rise to the occasion, as they did last year, makes the Hendrick Motorsports driver a threat to repeat.
Ryan Blaney (seed: 2): Blaney wouldn’t have been on this list two weeks ago, but after back-to-back wins at Michigan and Daytona to end the regular season, he vaulted to the second seed and now rides a wave of momentum. That's good news for the Team Penske driver, who had a disastrous playoffs last season, when he was eliminated in the opening round.
Martin Truex Jr. (seed: 3): The 2017 Cup champion has won at three tracks in the playoffs and ranks second behind his JGR teammate Hamlin in points earned at the seven playoff tracks where they had points races earlier this year. Truex excels on the tracks with the 750 horsepower, reduced downforce package. There are six of those in the playoffs: three in the opening round, the elimination race at the Charlotte road course and the final two races of the year.
Kyle Busch (seed: 4): Busch has two wins and is tied for third in top-5s this year. He also tied for third with 16 top-10s in the 26 regular-season races. After a disappointing playoffs last year, when he was eliminated in the quarterfinal round, Busch seems positioned to make a run for his third Cup title. The one unknown: His crew chief, Ben Beshore, is in his first season as a Cup crew chief.
William Byron (seed: 8): Like Busch, Byron has 16 top-10 finishes. But he has only 19 races in which he finished on the lead lap, and he ranks sixth among the playoff drivers in average finish (13.5). He also has a rookie Cup crew chief in Rudy Fugle. So why is Byron grouped with the veterans? Hendrick Motorsports has been the best organization across all types of tracks, and Byron has a couple of years of playoff experience.
No worries early
Alex Bowman (seed: 6): Bowman has three wins this year, but he finished the regular season 12th in the standings — below Tyler Reddick, the last among the three winless drivers to get in on points. Bowman didn’t win any stages this year and ranks 13th among the playoff drivers in stage points earned this year at tracks that are in the playoffs. The Hendrick driver will get out of the first round but after that is a big question.
Joey Logano (seed: 9): Logano hasn’t finished on the lead lap in his past three races, and his only win this year came on the Bristol dirt. The Penske driver was mediocre in the races at playoff tracks this season. But Logano is a great driver (2018 champion), and his crew chief, Paul Wolfe, is a great crew chief (2012 champion). They will need to rely on that greatness to make something happen.
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Facing one-and-done
Brad Keselowski (seed: 10): Keselowski is slumping into the playoffs, with just one top-5 and three top-10s in his past seven races. He knows the 750 horsepower tracks will be the strength for his team, but they're also the strength for Truex and some others. Keselowski's lone win this year came at Talladega, so if he can get to the second round, he’d be a threat to advance. But entering the opening round just three points ahead of the cutoff puts him in a precarious spot from the outset — not to mention, the 2012 champion is leaving Team Penske after this year for Roush Fenway Racing, where he will be a co-owner.
Tyler Reddick (seed: 15): Reddick either will ride the wave of emotion of making the playoffs on the final lap of the regular season, or his Richard Childress Racing team will be sapped by the highs and lows of the past month. Reddick finished 11th in the points, so he really has nothing to lose. An aggressive Reddick will mean feast or famine.
Kurt Busch (seed: 11): The 2004 Cup champion has plenty of playoff experience as he enters his 15th postseason as a driver. He’ll need that experience to grind his way through the rounds. Busch does have three top-5s in the past seven events, but he’s last among playoff drivers in points scored at playoff tracks this year. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver is hoping to have a strong finish for the organization, which will be bought by Trackhouse Racing after the season. Busch will move to 23XI Racing for 2022.
Christopher Bell (seed: 12): Bell's first playoffs will probably be a learning experience on racing in the Cup postseason. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has just four top-5s this year and an average finish of 17th. That isn’t bad for a second season in Cup (and first at JGR), but it won’t get you far in the playoffs.
Kevin Harvick (seed: 16): About the only stat the Stewart-Haas Racing driver can feel good about is that he has 23 lead-lap finishes, which led to a respectable 16 top-10 finishes. Harvick's average finish of 11.5 is his worst in seven years. This team needs to find some speed and doesn’t have much time left to do so.
Aric Almirola (seed: 14): Almirola has had a season to forget except for his win at New Hampshire, which vaulted him into the playoffs. He has had just three top-10 finishes. The veteran SHR driver will need some of his best results to get out of the opening round.
Michael McDowell (seed: 13): The Daytona 500 winner is entering his first playoffs. Although McDowell has had the best season of his career — he built on an average finish of 20.9 last season to sit at 19.7 so far in 2021 — the Front Row Motorsports team will need to grind out some good finishes to advance in the opening round.
Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!
