The Round of 8: Bob Pockrass breaks down the Cup Series playoffs semifinals
By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer
The eight drivers who have survived the opening two rounds of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs know it won’t be enough to just not beat themselves.
As Kyle Larson learned in the previous round — when he spent time below the cutline before rallying for the win in the elimination race Sunday at Charlotte — virtually no lead is safe when a round is filled with an unsuccessful pit call, a crash you didn't cause and a mechanical gremlin during the race.
"You’ve got to be really good," Larson said. "You’ve got to do a good job every lap of every race. You’ve got to get stage points. You just can't let your guard down and lose ground on guys that are gaining points on you."
Larson has enough of a cushion (42 points) that he might be able to advance if one of those things happens. The rest of the drivers have little margin for error. They will need to perform, with either a win or at least a couple of top-5 finishes, to be among the four to advance out of the NASCAR Round of 8 (semifinal round) and be eligible for the championship on Nov. 7 at Phoenix.
The tracks this time are much more straightforward, with 1.5-mile ovals at Texas and Kansas and the half-mile Martinsville, the shortest track on the Cup circuit.
"If I have an average first race, a bad second race, then we're in an extra-stressful situation going into Martinsville," Larson said. "Hopefully, Texas goes smooth. Hopefully, Kansas goes smooth, and we can be a little bit more stress-free."
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Let's break down the third round:
FINAL FOUR-BOUND
Kyle Larson (1-seed): Larson had his scare over the weekend, but he should make it out of this round. The 1.5-mile tracks have been some of the best tracks for the Hendrick Motorsports cars this year (he won at Las Vegas and the Charlotte oval earlier this year). He also won the All-Star race at Texas, but that was with a different horsepower package. He led 132 laps at Kansas in May, but a late restart, on which he attempted to shove Ryan Blaney, put them both in the wall and relegated him to 19th. He was fifth at Martinsville in April.
KEEP ON KEEPING ON
Denny Hamlin (2): Hamlin (seven points above the cutline) has won the past two races on intermediate tracks (Darlington and Las Vegas), and he has been one of the two dominant cars this year, but with just two victories compared to seven for Larson. Hamlin didn’t have a great day at Kansas earlier this year, finishing 12th. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver led 276 laps and finished third at Martinsville, one of his best tracks.
Ryan Blaney (4): Blaney (three points above the cutline) has performed the best of the Penske drivers on the intermediate tracks, with a win early in the season at Atlanta and in the late summer at Michigan. He also had one of his best Martinsville performances in April, when he swept both stages and led 157 laps before finishing 11th. He might have a little extra motivation with this being the last year for crew chief Todd Gordon.
Kyle Busch (5): Busch (two points below the cutline) won at Kansas in the spring and Texas a year ago, so that should at least give him some confidence. But if it comes down to Martinsville, he could be in trouble. He was 10th there earlier this year. Busch will be without crew chief Ben Beshore this weekend because his car had two loose lug nuts after Charlotte, but the Gibbs bench is deep, and it shouldn’t be an issue.
BUTTON UP
Martin Truex Jr. (3): This Gibbs team makes too many mistakes and is a little too inconsistent to feel like it just needs to keep doing what it has been doing, despite entering this round four points above the cutline. Truex won Martinsville in the spring, so his team knows it will be strong in the final race. Truex was sixth at Kansas and scored just four points in that race. He swept the 2017 races at Kansas, but the cars are different enough that that might not mean a whole lot.
Chase Elliott (6): As much as Elliott has to feel good that he got the better of Harvick and moved on, this Hendrick team doesn’t have the swagger it did entering this round a year ago. Elliott has only one top-10 in his past four races and enters the round two points below the cutline. He was fifth at Kansas earlier this year and second at Martinsville, so he’s going to good tracks for him, but this team has yet to win on an oval this year.
NEED FOR SPEED
Joey Logano (7): Logano was 17th at Kansas and sixth at Martinsville earlier this year. He hasn’t had the speed that he would like on the 1.5-mile tracks. If it comes down to Martinsville, where he has a solid history, even a strong run there might not be enough, as the Penske driver enters this round 11 points below the cutline.
Brad Keselowski (8): Keselowski knows this could be his best round. And it’s going to have to be, as he enters last among the eight drivers and 16 points below the cutoff in what will be his last races at Team Penske before heading to Roush Fenway. He was third at Kansas earlier this year, leading 72 laps and finishing fourth in each stage. That sounds great, but that was also his last top-5 at a 1.5-mile track. An accident ended his day early at Martinsville.
Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!
