NASCAR Cup Series

Kyle Larson knows not to get too comfortable heading into Charlotte

Published Oct. 7, 2021 2:21 p.m. ET

By Bob Pockrass
FOX Sports NASCAR Writer

Kyle Larson won’t be able to get 2018 out of his head this week.

Back when the Charlotte road course was the elimination race for the opening round instead of for the second round of the playoffs, Larson entered that race seventh in the standings, six spots and 17 points ahead of the cutoff.

He earned 12 points in the stages and thought he was in a solid position. But a blown tire on the final lap damaged his car and he limped it across the finish line ahead of a slow-moving Jeffrey Earnhardt.

Larson finished in a three-way tie in points for the final two spots, advancing thanks to a tiebreaker. One of those drivers, Aric Almirola, had entered the race seven spots up on the cutoff with a 23-point cushion and also advanced thanks to a tiebreaker.

So considering Larson is seven spots up on the cutoff with a 22-point cushion entering the race Sunday, it’s hard not to blame him for feeling nervous that he could be one of the four drivers eliminated.

It would be shocking to see a driver who has six victories this year not even make it to the Round of 8, NASCAR’s version of the semifinal round. But only wins in the current round automatically advance a driver and keep them from being among the four eliminated who are the lowest in points.

"It’s not comforting," Larson said Monday after Talladega. "The year that I had to limp it up across the start-finish, I was only up like ... maybe 18 then and ended up getting in on the tiebreaker.

"Not too comforting, but hopefully just go there and have a good day and get some stage points and get on to the next round."

The key will be those stage points. NASCAR awards stage points to the top-10 in each stage on a 10-to-1 scale. But on a road course, in order to maintain or improve track position, many drivers pit a few laps before the end of the stage so they don’t have to pit during the stage break. At most tracks, that isn’t a strategy because a driver would lose a lap under green, but that doesn’t happen on a road course.

Once the second stage is complete, drivers have a much better idea of where they need to finish in order to advance. Of course, it can depend on where other drivers finish and wrecks on a final lap at a road course can cost a driver 20-30 spots as many drivers don’t get lapped.

The Charlotte road course has been an elimination race since that inaugural race in 2018. Here is a list of the movement from above and below the cutline:

2018 (end of first round): Austin Dillon, three spots and 10 points ahead of the cutoff, fell out after earning four stage points but placing 39th. Clint Bowyer, one spot and four points behind the cutoff, got in by seven points after finishing third and earning an additional 14 points in the stages.

2019 (end of first round): Ryan Newman, four spots and 14 points ahead of the cutoff, fell out after finishing 32nd with no stage points, as did Almirola, two spots and three points ahead of the cutoff but with a 14th-place finish and just four stage points. Alex Bowman, one spot and two points behind the cutoff advanced by five points thanks to a second-place finish (no stage points), as did Bowyer, who entered two spots and three points behind the cutoff and ended up easily advancing by 17 points thanks to a fourth-place finish combined with 16 stage points.

2020 (end of second round): Kyle Busch and Dillon were tied for the final spot and neither of them advanced (Busch finished 30th with no stage points and Dillon finished 19th with no stage points). Kurt Busch, who entered two spots and five points behind the cutoff, got in by 10 points after finishing fourth with no stage points.

Larson hopes the fact that he sits second in the standings and has to be passed by six others in order to drop out will help him advance. With two road-course wins this year (Sonoma and Watkins Glen), Larson is also one of the race favorites for the victory.

"At least I’m the highest up, I guess, of guys who are still looking to make it on points," Larson said. "There is a bunch of us kind of right there."

Actually, what might be better for Larson is that really only one driver has a good chance to rally from behind the cutline to advance on points.

Kevin Harvick is nine points below the cutline, although he has averaged 20.5 points (out of a possible 60) in road-course races this year.

Christopher Bell, who did win at the Daytona road course and finished second at Road America, is 28 points back. William Byron is 44 points behind and Bowman is 52. They mathematically can make it on points but have virtually no chance to advance without a win.

"We’ve run well there before," Bowman said. "I feel like we can be really strong – just have to go do it."

Bowman has three top-10s but no top-5s on road courses this year. Byron has one top-10 and no top-5s.

"I feel like there’s really nothing to lose for us," Byron said. "We’re 44 points out, we’re not going to make it on points. So we’ve got to go win and we know what we have to do to do that."

While they would prefer to have a chance to make it on points, Bowman and Byron have the advantage of just focusing on winning while the other playoff drivers will be looking to see where their competition is running.

"Strategy is pretty simple for us: keep our track position and try to have an opportunity to win at the end," Byron said.

Playoff meter

What to watch for

The seventh road-course race of the year shouldn’t bring any surprises. Drivers who have been good on road courses this year should be good again on Sunday at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

That means Larson (two road-course wins this year) and Chase Elliott (seven career road-course wins, two road-course wins this year and the winner of the last two Charlotte races) and AJ Allmendinger (winner at Indy) likely will be in the mix. Probably Denny Hamlin (arguably should have won Indy). Maybe Bell (Daytona winner).

Ryan Blaney, winner of the inaugural Charlotte road course race, also will be a threat. And don’t rule out Hamlin’s teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. – they both have four career wins on road courses.

Thinking out loud

Will Bubba Wallace’s victory on Sunday mean more are on the horizon? To be determined.

There are many people who want to say Wallace is a superstar in the making. And he could be at 27 years old. But his résumé of no Xfinity wins in 86 starts shows that he still has something to prove on whether he can win more consistently.

Erik Jones earned a win at Daytona for one of his two career victories. Almirola has been in the sport for 10 years, won his first race in 2014 and has had two additional victories. And yet he has had a solid career by running well consistently and making the playoffs.

If Wallace can do that and bring sponsorship, history says he’ll keep a ride. And he’ll have a respectable career. Maybe not the one he wants or some would hope, but not everyone is going to win dozens of races.

So the jury is out on Wallace. What Monday proved is he has the ability to win in addition to what already was known – he has the ability to put himself in a position to win.

It’s easy to get hopes up after a victory. But just like Wallace said, there is more work to be done.

Next Up: Next Gen

We covered the upcoming Next Gen test fairly extensively in the newsletter on Monday.

Drivers will be on track for seven hours each day – three hours in the morning and four hours in the afternoon.

Some teams will change drivers each day so all their drivers can get a chance behind the wheel.

Social spotlight

They said it

"I get hate tweets as well because I hired him. Those people just need to grow up honestly, appreciate the accomplishment that the kid just had. He drove it to the front, and the caution came out. There's not much else you can do." – Denny Hamlin on Bubba Wallace critics

Bob Pockrass has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s. He joined FOX Sports in 2019 following stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @bobpockrass. Looking for more NASCAR content? Sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass!