NASCAR Cup Series

NASCAR Playoff Picture: Who's in, who's on the bubble, who must win

Updated Aug. 19, 2024 4:43 p.m. ET

Tyler Reddick winning Monday at Michigan International Speedway allowed drivers on the bubble to breathe a little easier.

A little.

NASCAR playoffs consist of 16 drivers — the regular-season champion and then the next 15 drivers ranked by wins with ties broken by points.

With the top seven drivers in the standings all having at least one victory, the regular-season champion most likely will be one of the winners. Twelve drivers have won this year, meaning up to four spots could be available on points.

So who's in, who's on the bubble and who is at win-at-all-costs?

Following Michigan, two races remain to set the playoff field: Daytona and Darlington.

Those 12 drivers with wins who are in: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric.

There are five winless drivers who would be battling for the current four spots available solely on points.

Martin Truex Jr. has a 77-point edge on the cutline, with 38 points on Ty Gibbs, who is 23 points above Chris Buescher. Buescher is 15 points above Ross Chastain, who has just a 1-point edge on Bubba Wallace for the final spot.

Truex can feel good about his position with two races left unless there are two new winners. With 39 points separating Gibbs from Wallace and the propensity for crashes (and upset winners) at Daytona, Gibbs, Buescher, Chastain and Wallace can’t feel all that safe. There also is a slight chance that Austin Dillon could become playoff eligible if he wins an appeal Wednesday of NASCAR stripping the automatic playoff berth that he would have with his controversial Richmond victory.

Gibbs finished third at Michigan to at least have a little bit of a buffer.

"I wish we could have won," Gibbs said. "It was nice to just have a clean day and not have any problems. ... I’m really thankful for that."

Both Chastain (25th) and Wallace (26th) had rough days getting collected in incidents. They know they need solid points runs or a victory to make the playoffs. Both had little to say after Richmond.

Chastain: "I don’t feel very peachy right now."

Wallace: "Two more left. It didn’t matter if we ran second today. Two more left [to win]."

Buescher won at Daytona last year, but it’s also a place where Wallace traditionally has run well. Gibbs still seeks his first career Cup win. Chastain is the driver with the most recent experience in playoff pressure situations, where he mostly has proven he can make things happen.

There are 17 other playoff-eligible drivers who pretty much face must-win situations: Austin Dillon, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie, John Hunter Nemechek, Harrison Burton and Zane Smith.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.