Ranking 2024 Daytona 500 field 1-40: From Denny Hamlin to Anthony Alfredo
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. – Before breaking down the Daytona 500 field, it seemed best to review the 60-lap races Thursday night to see who has strong cars and the best instincts heading into NASCAR's biggest race Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET on FOX).
But even after watching those events, commonly called the "duels" that set the lineup for the Daytona 500, it is easy to remain confused and wonder who actually has the best car and seems in the best mindset to win NASCAR's season opener at Daytona International Speedway.
Daytona and Talladega, and most recently Atlanta, are known as "drafting" tracks because of the way the aerodynamic draft results in them racing side-by-side in packs and needing a push from another driver (or a line of drivers) at just the right time to make a pass.
Here's my best educated guess in ranking the Daytona 500 field from 1 to 40 based on drivers' chances of winning the race. This isn't a prediction of where they'll finish as much as the potential they have to lift the trophy in Victory Lane after 200 laps (or more if overtime).
1. Denny Hamlin (starting 8th)
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver already owns three Daytona 500 trophies, and a fourth could very well be in the making. He ranks fifth all-time in laps led in the Daytona 500 with 480. The one big BUT in all this — he hasn't won on a drafting track in a Next Gen car. And he made a move late in the duels Thursday night that would not have worked in the 500 as his dicey block of Michael McDowell would not have resulted in McDowell lifting and giving him room but instead staying on the gas and likely creating a big wreck.
2. Kyle Busch (34th)
Busch is competing in his 19th Daytona 500 (he has qualified now for 20 of them but didn't race in 2015 after a crash in the Xfinity race the day prior) and still seeks that first win. He will start from the rear in a backup car. He was leading after 500 miles last year, but the race was under caution, and he ended up crashed. He has led 330 laps in the Daytona 500, just not the right one. So how will this be the year with him starting at the rear with a backup car? Sometimes the Daytona 500 produces the greatest storylines.
3. Joey Logano (1st)
Logano sits on the pole for Sunday's race, and when he has confidence, the Team Penske driver is hard to beat. He won't shy away from making the race-winning move at just the right time, but whether that move wins the race or ends up in a wreck has been hit-or-miss. He won the 2015 Daytona 500.
4. Brad Keselowski (16th)
Keselowski has shown he can win at Talladega (he has won there six times) and even at Daytona in the summer but never in his 14 tries at the Daytona 500. He's been in position to win at least a few times, but as he says, he wasn't chosen to win it. One thing he knows — his RFK Racing cars have been strong at the drafting tracks with his teammate Chris Buescher having won here last August.
Brad Keselowski talks about the Daytona 500s that slipped away
5. Christopher Bell (4th)
Bell won his duel Thursday night, building on his third-place finish in the Daytona 500 last year, by far his best finish in a points race at the track. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver doesn't love this style of racing, but never count out this crafty driver and his team. And at least as of Thursday, this place has shown him a little bit of love and a little bit of luck.
6. Martin Truex Jr. (27th)
Entering his 20th Daytona 500, Truex has memories of what could have been at Daytona as he lost by inches in 2016. But since then, his best finish in the Daytona 500 is 13th. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is winless in 79 starts at drafting tracks. So why so high? Because he is well respected and probably will have plenty of friends willing to push him to the win.
7. Alex Bowman (7th)
Bowman saw a streak of six consecutive front-row Daytona 500 starts snapped this year. That's OK. He wants to race better and has shown steady improvement at the superspeedways. The Hendrick Motorsports driver was a career-best fifth in the Daytona 500 last year.
8. Ryan Blaney (32nd)
The 2023 Cup champion has finished second twice in the Daytona — in 2017 and 2020. He has won at Daytona (summer 2021) and three at Talladega. So coming into the week, this Team Penske driver would have been considered one of the drivers to beat. But he was justifiably frustrated after a hard crash Thursday left him going to a backup car (and to the rear for the start of the race). He will still have a good car, but he'll have to get over the frustration to have a clear mind for the race.
Ryan Blaney on having a new spotter for the 2024 season
9. Chase Elliott (5th)
Elliott is another story of close but no trophy for the Daytona 500 — he ran out of gas while leading on Lap 198 of the 2017 Daytona 500. He was second in the 2021 Daytona 500. The Hendrick Motorsports driver last won a Cup race in October 2022 at the Daytona sister track Talladega. He looked strong at the duels.
10. Chris Buescher (19th)
Buescher was the most recent winner here at Daytona as he captured the 2023 regular-season finale in August. He was fourth in the Daytona 500 last year. If RFK teammates Buescher, Keselowski and David Ragan get hooked up at the end, they will be tough to beat. Buescher did go home to North Carolina after the duels for the birth of his child but will be back for the 500.
11. William Byron (18th)
Byron has yet to finish in the top 20 in the Daytona 500 as he prepares for his seventh start in the race. But he is coming off a career year with six victories, so it would be no surprise to the Hendrick Motorsports driver to build on that with his first 500 victory. Oh, wait. He had to go to a backup car, so he'll be dropping to the rear at the start. That doesn't mean he won't win, just that he enters the race with a little less knowledge about his car.
12. Kyle Larson (17th)
Larson has just one top-5 finish in 41 races on drafting tracks and has failed to finish 16 of those races because of accidents. He doesn't have a top-5 in his 19 Daytona starts and failed to finish the last two Daytona 500s. So the 2021 Cup champion might not be the best hope for Hendrick Motorsports, but he arguably looked the strongest in the duels.
13. Bubba Wallace (24th)
How many more times can Wallace finish second at Daytona without notching a win? Wallace was second in the Daytona 500 in 2018 and 2022 and also has another second-place finish in the summer race at the track. The 23XI Racing driver is known for his drafting track prowess.
Bubba Wallace on the end of the Clash and being spun out by Kyle Larson
14. Michael McDowell (2nd)
McDowell surprised everyone, even himself a little bit, by qualifying on the front row for the Daytona 500. The Front Row Motorsports driver is coming off a career year that included a win on the Indianapolis road course. But his career day came at Daytona in the 2021 Daytona 500 in his career 358th career start. He was in position to possibly win his duel when Hamlin threw that block that forced McDowell to lift — forced him to lift for the Thursday race but wouldn't lift for Sunday.
15. Tyler Reddick (3rd)
Reddick and the Daytona 500 don't have the best relationship, but he did win his duel Thursday night, so he's feeling better about the place. He has five starts in the Daytona 500 and has failed to finish four of them because of accidents. He has a best finish of 27th. But, hey, if the 23XI Racing driver does get to the finish, he'll feel he has a chance, especially after the sweet move he made to win his duel.
16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (35th)
The defending Daytona 500 winner says he enters this race a little more relaxed thanks to that win a year ago. The JTG Daugherty Racing driver has the confidence he can make the move to get the job done as all three of his wins have come on drafting tracks.
17. Erik Jones (11th)
Jones has good memories of Daytona as it is the site of his first Cup win, which came in the summer race in 2018. He's with a different team now than he was then, but he's back with Toyota as Legacy Motor Club has switched from Chevrolet for this year. The Daytona 500 hasn't treated him well as he has failed to finish the last three and five of his seven starts.
18. Ty Gibbs (15th)
Coming off his Rookie of the Year season, the grandson of Joe Gibbs looks for his first Cup victory. He was 25th in his first Daytona 500 last year and then his race in August ended abruptly with an accident, a race that also ruined his playoff hopes. The biggest challenge for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver will be getting help late in the race without having much experience up front late in the event at a superspeedway.
Ty Gibbs on what he learned from his rookie season
19. Austin Dillon (33rd)
Dillon won the 2018 Daytona 500 (the last Cup race held on Feb. 18, the anniversary of Dale Earnhardt's death). He has not won since capturing the summer 2022 race at Daytona, which earned him a spot in the playoffs. Dillon will race with a car that he probably will have some questions about after heavy nose damage from the duels had to be prepared.
20. Corey LaJoie (29th)
Some of LaJoie's best Cup runs have come on the drafting tracks. He nearly won a race at Atlanta in 2022 but admitted that his unfamiliarity with being up front late in the race hurt him. The Spire Motorsports driver's average finish of 11.75 in the last four Daytona 500s is second only to Ryan Blaney.
21. AJ Allmendinger (28th)
Allmendinger hates the drafting style of racing, but he's pretty decent at it. Driving a partial Cup schedule to go along with a full Xfinity slate at Kaulig Racing, Allmendinger has finished top-10 in five of his last six Cup races at Daytona.
22. Austin Cindric (6th)
Cindric won the Daytona 500 in 2022 but the Team Penske driver has failed to finish in his other two starts in the race. He hasn't won since then, but in his last drafting race, he finished fifth at Talladega in October.
23. John Hunter Nemechek (10th)
Nemechek returns to the Cup Series after his 2020 rookie season was followed by two years in trucks and a year in Xfinity. He won seven Xfinity races last year. So a more experienced Nemechek is now behind the wheel — and in a Toyota for Legacy Motor Club — for his first Cup start at Daytona since 2020.
24. Ross Chastain (21st)
Chastain has never finished in the top-5 at Daytona but the Trackhouse Racing driver has three top-10s in five Daytona 500 starts. He does have a drafting track win at Talladega in 2022. The big question: Would he have any friends to go with him?
Ross Chastain on entering 2024 feeling like a championship contender
25. Ryan Preece (25th)
Preece will hope for a less dramatic ending to his race at Daytona than in August when he went on a wild, flipping ride through the backstretch grass. He said he is numb to the danger and is ready to race again at Daytona. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has four Daytona 500 starts with two top-10 finishes.
26. Daniel Suarez (13th)
Suarez failed to finish four of his first six Daytona 500 races before a career-best seventh last year. The Trackhouse Racing driver typically is not considered a threat at Daytona but he was more than respectable in his duel. And, hey, with Pitbull as his team co-owner and doing the pre-race concert, maybe there will be good vibes.
27. Chase Briscoe (20th)
Briscoe was third in the 2022 Daytona 500, but he isn't considered a huge threat. He is one of those drivers who just needs to get to the finish and see what happens. The Stewart-Haas Racing "veteran" (the only SHR driver with a Cup win) has failed to finish his last three Daytona races.
28. Jimmie Johnson (23rd)
Johnson had to sweat out making the race, but now that he's in, he can put his experience of seven Cup titles and two Daytona 500 wins to use. It is still strange to see him in a Toyota as Legacy Motor Club made the switch after the 2023 season. Johnson is running a nine-race schedule this year. His biggest challenge is having relatively few laps in the Next Gen car, which was introduced in 2022.
'It's truly what I love to do' – Jimmie Johnson shares feelings heading into Daytona 500
29. David Ragan (40th)
Ragan put a third RFK Racing car into the 500 for his first Cup start since 2022. But Ragan does much of the testing for Ford, so he has plenty of recent laps in a Next Gen car. He also has two Cup wins (his only two) at superspeedway tracks. His experience will help but the question will be can a part-time effort really result in a Daytona 500 victory.
30. Todd Gilliland (31st)
Gilliland is making his fifth career start in the Daytona 500 — and is looking for his first Daytona 500 where he is running at the finish. The Front Row Motorsports driver does have two top-10s on drafting tracks, so if he gets to the finish, he certainly could be in the mix — he has been in the mix when he has gotten caught up in accidents.
31. Riley Herbst (36th)
Herbst finished 10th in the Daytona 500 last year driving for Front Row Motorsports and will drive for Rick Ware Racing this year. Another top-10 is possible if he stays out of trouble, something he wasn't able to avoid in the duels.
32. Justin Haley (22nd)
Haley's only Cup win came in the summer race at Daytona in 2019 when pit strategy proved prophetic thanks to a coming rainstorm that ended the race. But Haley can run well at the drafting tracks as he is a two-time Xfinity winner at Daytona. This is his debut at Rick Ware Racing after a few years at Kaulig.
33. Zane Smith (14th)
The rookie finished 13th in the Daytona 500 driving a third car for Front Row Motorsports. Now he has a full-time Cup ride at Spire while under loan from Trackhouse. This will be his 10th Cup start.
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34. Daniel Hemric (37th)
Making his first Cup start since 2022, Hemric was 12th in the 2022 Daytona 500. This will be his third start in the race, his second for Kaulig Racing. The week didn't start well as his primary car was totaled in an accident in the duels and he'll be starting at the rear of the field in a backup car.
35. Harrison Burton (12th)
Burton has a fast car as he was among the top-10 in single-car qualifying and also ran in the top-5 at times during his duels. The Wood Brothers Racing driver is just looking for something good to happen at Daytona. He flipped in his first Daytona 500 two years ago and was 26th last year.
36. Carson Hocevar (9th)
Making his 10th Cup start, Hocevar has never competed in the Daytona 500. The Spire rookie will be learning as he goes, but he seems to be a quick learner: he finished fourth in his duel.
37. Josh Berry (30th)
Berry is competing in his first Daytona 500 as he takes over the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 car for the retired Kevin Harvick. He was 22nd at Daytona last August driving for Legacy Motor Club.
38. Noah Gragson (38th)
Gragson enters his third Daytona 500 and is still looking for his first top-20 in the race. But that's not to say Daytona isn't good to him. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver (this will be his first Cup race for SHR) finished fifth in August 2022 at Daytona and his first career Xfinity win came at the track in February 2020. But he'll be competing in a backup car and starting at the rear of the field after a crash in the duels.
39. Kaz Grala (26th)
Grala had to race his way in through the duels Thursday night and got the job done to make his third Daytona 500. One of Grala's career moments came at Daytona as he won a truck race here at age 18 — the youngest driver ever to win a truck race at the track.
40. Anthony Alfredo (39th)
Alfredo locked in the Beard Motorsports entry with a wicked-fast lap in qualifying Wednesday. This team has just one full-time employee and their biggest issue could come on pit road in trying to keep up with the full-time teams. The car does have an ECR motor.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
